Don't let that team stand in the way.
That was the refrain Urban Meyer drilled into his players before they took the field to play Michigan while coaching the Buckeyes. The quote landed in multiple hype trailers released for The Game by Ohio State in the 2010s, often preceding wins as Meyer finished his OSU tenure 7-0 vs. the Wolverines.
It feels as apt as ever in 2024. Michigan effectively sold its soul for a national championship in 2023, whether that's in the form of the Connor Stalions scandal – Michigan's 90-day window to respond to the NCAA's Notice of Allegations expired on Saturday – or in the veteran players and coaches that didn't return this year.
The Wolverines have long been out of the Big Ten title race and the College Football Playoff hunt. However, Michigan always poses a threat to Ohio State, regardless of the outlook for both squads. The maize and blue might be projected to play in the Duke's Mayo Bowl this postseason, but their Super Bowl occurs Saturday in the Shoe.
Ohio State's northern foil might be struggling this year, but it's all that stands in the way of a Big Ten Championship Game berth. More than any of that, Michigan stands in the way of a catharsis for Ohio State after three straight losses to the Wolverines. Transgressions that many of the Buckeyes' seniors returned to correct, at least in part.
"This is the game that you came back for," Jack Sawyer said about Michigan after Ohio State's 38-15 win over Indiana. "It's a game that has impacted so many lives the last few years. I want this one so bad for so many different reasons."
Those who remain
It took most of his nine-year tenure and five straight losses to Ohio State (and some extent of help from a sign stealer), but Jim Harbaugh built his alma mater back to a nationally relevant program, then bolted for the Los Angeles Chargers after winning last year's national championship. Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and defensive line coach Mike Elston followed him.
Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who served as interim head coach for the Wolverines for three games while Harbaugh was suspended last year, took over as full-time head coach for the program this season. With the coaching change came an exodus of talent.
Michigan had 13 players taken in the 2024 NFL draft and 18 found new homes through the transfer portal. Only two starters return from last year's Wolverine offense, and one of them, running back Donovan Edwards, was a co-starter with Blake Corum in 2023.
Their entire offensive line is gone. Star quarterback J.J. McCarthy is gone. Star wide receiver Roman Wilson is gone. Corum, who set a Michigan single-season record with 27 rushing touchdowns in 2023, is gone. Many of the Wolverines' defensive stars including safety Mike Sainristil and linebacker Junior Colson are gone.
Even among those who remain there's been attrition. Cornerback Will Johnson, who intercepted Kyle McCord in Ohio State's last matchup with Michigan, has only played six games this year and his status is up in the air for Saturday. Returning safety Rod Moore is out for the season with a torn ACL.
This year's Michigan team isn't even a skeleton of the one that won a national title in 2023, it's a few dozen bones short of that. There's a reason the Wolverines have lost five games, including contests with Washington, Illinois and at home against Indiana. But what many of the players on their roster do have is multiple wins over Ohio State. The Buckeyes cannot overlook what the Wolverines bring to the table if they are to add a tick to all those players' OSU loss columns.
Thy kingdom for a quarterback
Michigan's NIL collectives are paying a rumored eight-figure dollar amount to Bryce Underwood to come in and be its quarterback of the near future after flipping the five-star prospect from LSU. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, his services are unavailable this Saturday.
The Wolverines have started three different quarterbacks this season and none of them average more than 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The player who hit that number, original third-string signal caller Jack Tuttle, medically retired midway through the season.
Davis Warren has started a majority of Michigan's games and should start against Ohio State this Saturday. He's a fantastic story who overcame a battle with leukemia to get back to football, but his numbers are unimpressive in 2024. He's completed 64.1% of his passes for 1,064 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. It doesn't help that his No. 1 wide receiver, Tyler Morris, has just 22 receptions for 234 yards and two touchdowns.
Michigan ranks 128th out of 134 FBS teams in passing yards per game this season (140.1) and is tied for 132nd in yards per attempt (5.6). Its issues were perhaps most prevalent in a 27-17 loss to Washington when Tuttle and Alex Orji combined to complete just 13 of 25 passes (52%) for 113 yards and one touchdown with one interception.
Tight end Colston Loveland, the other returning offensive starter from last year's team outside Edwards, has been perhaps the only dependable part of Michigan's passing game. Loveland has racked up 56 receptions for 582 yards and five touchdowns, numbers that all more than double the next-leading receiver for the Wolverines.
Warren and company showed signs of life in a 50-6 clobbering of Northwestern last week, going 26-of-35 (74.3%) for 195 yards, a score and a pick. That's still only 5.6 yards per attempt, however. The severe downside is that Loveland suffered a shoulder injury against the Wildcats and is questionable for The Game.
Mulling things over
Edwards worked in tandem with Corum in 2023 and graced the cover of EA Sports College Football 25 this past offseason. While he still rotates in Michigan's backfield, he's taken a backseat to fifth-year senior Kalel Mullings.
Both have played in all 11 of the Wolverines' games. Mullings has 153 carries for 832 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns while Edwards has 124 attempts for 578 yards (4.7 per carry) and four scores. Edwards was more productive in losses to Oregon and Indiana, games nine and 10 for Michigan, but Mullings posted 92 yards in just 12 carries with three touchdowns against the Wildcats last week.
On the whole Michigan's rushing offense has been middling this year. The Wolverines are 70th nationally in rushing yards (159.6) with Western Michigan and Central Michigan both ranked higher within their home state. Michigan's 4.5 yards per carry fares only a little better at 62nd in the country.
Stopping Michigan always starts with stopping the run. If Ohio State shuts down Mullings and Edwards this weekend, it's hard to find a path to victory for the Wolverines.
Elite defensive front
Two of Michigan's losses have come to the No. 1 and 3 teams in the AP Poll, with two more at the hands of ranked opponents. The Wolverines have beaten a few mid-tier Big Ten teams as well, with wins over USC, Minnesota and Michigan State. There are still reasons to be wary of the maize and blue beyond the warring nature of a rivalry game.
The top reason, especially when considering an Ohio State offensive line that's been shuffled several times this season, is Michigan's defensive line. Josaiah Stewart is among the nation's elite defensive ends, collecting a team-high 13 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham are one of the country's premier defensive tackle duos, combining for 66 takedowns, 13 TFLs and 6.5 sacks in 2024.
Edge defender TJ Guy provides excellent pass-rushing depth as well with 5.5 sacks on the season. Michigan is tied for second in the Big Ten with 31 sacks as a team, trailing only Ohio State's 35.
Michigan's defense is only 37th in points allowed per game but it's been placed in a lot of bad positions by the Wolverines' 128th-ranked total offense. Michigan is 29th in opposing yards per play (5), 13th in opposing yards per carry (3.1) and tied for 40th in opposing yards per pass attempt (6.6).
Series swings
In the decorated 128-year history of the Ohio State/Michigan football rivalry, there have been 14 winning streaks of three games or longer by either side. Michigan has nine such streaks and the Buckeyes have five.
When you take out the back-and-forth nature of the Ten Year War between Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler and Earle Bruce's subsequent tenure at Ohio State, this is a rivalry that’s been owned by one side or the other for varying time periods. The Buckeyes held a firm grip on the affair through the aughts and 2010s, encompassing the entire childhood and collegiate experience of your dear Five Things to Know writer.
Now Michigan is in the midst of a three-year winning stretch that grabs a fourth by proxy due to a canceled game (that Ohio State almost definitely wins) in 2020. Regardless of how much shadiness there was with Stalions, regardless of whether wins will be vacated, this four-year blue period will always be remembered by Buckeye fans.
It's weighed heaviest on Ryan Day and this year's senior class. Three straight losses to that team will get plenty of Ohio State fans to call for your head, to call for mass upheaval, to tear everything up that's been built and start anew. A fourth? At home? Against this team? Pressure and narratives are as much the opponent as those that wear winged helmets this week. Defeat all that and perhaps the whole series swings back toward the banks of the Olentangy.