Last Call: Questions, Players to Watch and Predictions for Ohio State vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field

By 11W Staff on November 16, 2024 at 7:00 am
Carnell Tate
6 Comments

It’s almost time for first pitch.

Northwestern
Wildcats
4 - 5 (2-4)
Wrigley Field
Chicago, IL
BTNOSU -28.5

Ohio State plays in one of America’s most storied sports venues this afternoon as Northwestern hosts the Buckeyes at Wrigley Field.

Coming off of a 45-0 win over Purdue last week, Ohio State hopes to take care of business comfortably again before heading into its third top-five matchup of the season next week vs. Indiana. The Wildcats are slightly better than the Boilermakers, but Ohio State is still favored to prevail by more than four touchdowns. That said, the unique setting of the game offers a variable for both teams to account for, and the Wildcats have often played the Buckeyes closer than they should have on paper in the past.

With all of that in mind, we break down our biggest questions and top players to watch and swing for the fences with our predictions for today’s game.

Questions

Will the venue impact gameplay?

While Wrigley Field offers an aesthetic setting for today’s game, it’s also not a venue that’s designed for playing football, which could require both teams to make some adjustments. The grass will be different than the turf Ohio State is accustomed to playing on, and there will be other quirks for the Buckeyes to adapt to such as the locker room being further away from the field, different sightlines for the coaches calling plays from the press box and the play clock being in a different location in a stadium that’s typically used for baseball.

In terms of gameplay, the variable that could perhaps have the most potential to impact the game is the proximity of the walls to the end zone. Could the teams be more reticent to throw deep balls to the back of the end zone, particularly during the quarters where they’re going directly toward the right field wall? I don’t expect the Buckeyes to change their playbook significantly because of the venue, but it might be smart to avoid throwing fade routes to their top receivers, especially once they’ve built a comfortable lead.

Ryan Day said he doesn’t expect the differences between Wrigley Field and a normal football stadium to be a “big deal,” but the fact that he brought his team to the field for a walkthrough on Friday – which Ohio State typically doesn’t do before road games – shows it’s at least in the back of his mind as something the Buckeyes need to account for.

– Dan Hope

Can the Buckeyes keep building their ground game?

After reinventing the left side of its offensive line following a 2.1-yard-per-carry day against Nebraska and two injuries at left tackle, Ohio State made a statement against one of the nation's best defensive fronts at then-No. 3 Penn State. The Buckeyes drove through a hostile environment to the tune of 5.2 yards per carry if sacks are removed.

Those successes were somewhat built upon against Purdue with 4.9 yards per carry and an explosive day from TreVeyon Henderson (six carries, 85 yards). But Northwestern poses a stiffer challenge as a run-stopping defense. It's the one thing the Wildcats do well. The Wildcats are 16th nationally in rushing yards allowed per contest (108.1) and 22nd in yards allowed per carry (3.4). As temperatures drop in November, running the football becomes more and more important.

– Andy Anders

How many quarterbacks will play?

Ohio State is a 30-point favorite over Northwestern, so I expect more than Will Howard to take snaps at quarterback this week. The question is who replaces him when his afternoon is over? Day said this week that Devin Brown is still the team's backup, but Julian Sayin continues to put in good work at practice and is making a push for the role. I expect both to see the field on Saturday. How many reps each quarterback receives will be interesting.

– Chase Brown

Can Ohio State stifle Northwestern’s offense?

The Buckeyes are playing an overmatched opponent for the second week in a row. Northwestern is the worst statistical offense in the Big Ten, so this could be another opportunity for Jim Knowles' defense to turn in a dominating effort.

– Garrick Hodge

Players to Watch

Carnell Tate

Playing in Tate’s hometown of Chicago, Ohio State might be inclined to draw up a few extra plays for its No. 3 receiver. At least it certainly sounded that way during Day’s radio show on Thursday.

“I cannot say enough about Carnell Tate,” Day said. “I just have so much respect for who he is as a person, what he's been through and the fact that he's going back to Chicago, so I want to win this game personally for him.”

Tate expects to have 30-40 family members and friends from his hometown in attendance for today’s game, so he’ll surely be motivated to have a big game in front of all of them. He’s been playing well despite being overshadowed by Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, but I won‘t be surprised if he leads the Buckeyes in receiving today.

– Dan Hope

JT Tuimoloau

Tuimoloau has been one of Ohio State's best defensive players of late, collecting 15 tackles, five tackles for loss and two sacks across the last three games for the Buckeyes. Against Purdue, he forced a fumble that Jack Sawyer recovered and returned 11 yards for a touchdown.

Given Northwestern's offensive struggles this season, ranking 121st in scoring and 131st out of 134 teams in total offense, expect Tuimoloau to invade the backfield once again on Saturday.

– Andy Anders

Eddrick Houston

Aside from a "silly penalty" in the Purdue game, Day has been pleased with Houston since he moved to defensive tackle. The sixth-year head coach often touts Houston's strength and power at the position – one in which Day sees "a really bright future" ahead of the five-star freshman – and I think those traits will be on display often on Saturday as Ohio State looks to build a lead and build depth against Northwestern.

– Chase Brown

TreVeyon Henderson 

Henderson said he isn't a baseball fan, but I'm predicting he may become one after having a big day on Saturday. We're only going off vibes here with this player to watch, but it feels like Henderson is due for a big game.

– Garrick Hodge

Predictions

Ohio State will allow zero offensive touchdowns for a third straight game

I’m not going to quite predict a second straight shutout for the Buckeyes, but I am predicting Ohio State’s defense will prevent the opposing offense from reaching the end zone for a third straight game. Northwestern’s offense is the worst in the Big Ten, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both passing and rushing yards per attempt, so the Buckeyes shouldn’t have much trouble shutting the Wildcats down.

– Dan Hope

250 passing yards for the Buckeyes

Ohio State's eclipsed 250 passing yards in five of its nine games, and pass defense is the weaker part of Northwestern's ball-stopping unit. The Wildcats rank 100th in passing yards allowed per game (241.1) and 52nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.9).

 Andy Anders

Ohio State's special teams continue to shine

Caden Curry's blocked punt against Purdue was Ohio State's first since Lathan Ransom had one in back-to-back weeks against Indiana and Maryland in 2022. This feels extra bold, but considering it's the funniest possible outcome, I'll pick Curry to get another punt block this week and match Ransom's output from two years ago. Even if that doesn't happen, I expect the Buckeyes to build upon their special teams performance from the Purdue game and continue making that unit a "plus" down the stretch.

– Chase Brown

Players enjoy the game but aren't eager to play it again

This is a once-in-a-lifetime experience for both Ohio State fans and coaches and players, but it should probably stay that way after seeing the setup. Don't expect too many fades thrown to the end zone on Saturday. Ohio State should win comfortably, but most importantly it needs to come away from the game healthy. 

– Garrick Hodge

6 Comments
View 6 Comments