Skull Session: ESPN's Computers Disagree With Media Members on Favorite to Win Big Ten, Ohio State's NIL Scene Continues to Thrive and More

By Chase Brown on July 26, 2023 at 5:00 am
Ryan Day
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Welcome to the Skull Session.

Big Ten Media Days are here. The 2023 season is almost upon us.

Also, Ohio State offered another look at its all-gray uniforms for the Buckeyes' Michigan State matchup on Nov. 11. They look cleannnnn.

Let's have a good Wednesday, shall we?

 THE BUSIEST OFFSEASON NEWS DAY EVER? Tuesday was a massive 24 hours for news related to The World Famous Ohio State Buckeyes – so much so that I feel the need to provide a rundown, and some commentary, to kick off the Skull Session.

Tuesday started with Cleveland.com's preseason Big Ten media poll, with Ohio State behind Michigan in the conference and the Wolverines as Big Ten champions for the third consecutive season (more on that later). The poll also predicted that Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.

As the day continued, Ross Dellenger dropped an Oppenheimer-like nuke that the NCAA suspended Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh four games after he allegedly lied to investigators about NCAA violations in Ann Arbor. But that hilarious announcement – made funnier with a resurfaced tweet (or Xeet?) from Harbaugh about deception from 2015 – was not all the day's news cycle had to offer.

Brutus Buckeye's Instagram account posted a photo with the Oregon Duck with the caption "B1G things coming" (still lookin' into that one), Bret Bielema and Illinois hired Jim Leonhard as a senior analyst, Notre Dame's strength coach Matt Balis resigned from his position and Northwestern's three Big Ten Media Day representatives announced they would not attend the event.

 

As one can see, it was a busy Tuesday.

Here is the "more on that later" part: The preseason Big Ten media poll mentioned above –conducted by Cleveland.com because, for some inexplicable reason, the Big Ten doesn't have an official poll – has Michigan winning its third consecutive conference title in 2023. And I love that. The Big Ten media has made Ohio State an underdog, which means "Ohio Against the World" is back in full force.

The last time Michigan was picked to win the Big Ten in Cleveland.com's annual poll was in 2019, when Ryan Day was a first-year head coach. That season, Ohio State broke in a new quarterback in Justin Fields and was expected to have an improved defense led by a dominant pass rusher in Chase Young. The Buckeyes went on to defeat the Wolverines, 56-27, in Ann Arbor, win a Big Ten championship and face Clemson in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Time will tell if the 2023 season, which also will feature a new quarterback in Kyle McCord or Devin Brown, a dominant pass rusher in JT Tuimoloau and a defense that has worked all offseason not to allow explosive plays, ends the same way. It certainly could!

 NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! While the Big Ten media may believe Michigan will beat Ohio State and win the conference this season, ESPN's computers seem to think the opposite will occur.

ESPN FPI MATCHUP PREDICTOR
OPPONENT LOCATION CHANCE TO WIN
INDIANA BLOOMINGTON, IN 98%
YOUNGSTOWN STATE COLUMBUS, OH 99%
WESTERN KENTUCKY COLUMBUS, OH 99%
NOTRE DAME SOUTH BEND, IN 79.3%
MARYLAND COLUMBUS, OH 97.5%
PURDUE WEST LAFAYETTE, IN 95.6%
PENN STATE COLUMBUS, OH 88.4%
WISCONSIN MADISON, WI 89.1%
RUTGERS PISCATAWAY, NJ 97.7%
MICHIGAN STATE COLUMBUS, OH 95.8%
MINNESOTA COLUMBUS, OH 96.4%
MICHIGAN ANN ARBOR. MI 71.4%

According to a recent update of ESPN's college football power index, the Buckeyes are the favorite to claim a Big Ten championship this season. But the data doesn't stop there. The computers at the worldwide leader in sports have also named Ohio State the favorite to win a national championship in 2023.

Yes, that's correct.

The Buckeyes have an 82.2% chance to reach the CFP and a 57.2% chance to attend the CFP title game this fall. From there, Ryan Day and Ohio State have the best odds to raise the championship trophy at 36.7%. The next-best odds are Alabama at 20.4% and Georgia at 19.1%.

I have no idea how ESPN calculates its percentages, but I imagine the computers have confidence in Ohio State because of its regular-season schedule in 2023. According to the power index, the Buckeyes have at least a 95% chance to win eight matchups this year, including Indiana, Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers, Michigan State and Minnesota. In comparison, no matchups dip below a 70% chance – not even Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin or Michigan.

That 2019 outcome is lookin' pretty good!

 OH, THIS DOIN' NUMBERS. The Eugene D. Smith Leadership Institute (EDSLI) announced a new record on Monday: 95% of Ohio State athletics graduates accepted a full-time position at a company, enrolled in graduate school or signed a professional contract before graduation in 2023.

In an EDSLI press release, Makenna Lynch, the Buckeyes' director of student-athlete development and operational strategy, said the percentage reflects the Ohio State athletic department's primary goal, which is "to ensure that student-athletes have a post-graduation plan" and can thrive in the corporate world as Buckeyes.

The press release also reported that a record 400 Ohio State athletes across the school's 36 varsity sports have secured over 2,000 name, image and likeness deals since Ohio passed NIL legislation on July 1, 2021. 

"Our student-athletes have embraced what it takes to be successful in the NIL era," said Logan Hittle, a former Ohio State football player and current assistant athletic director for NIL. "The corporate market in Columbus, along with the incredibly supportive fan base in Buckeye Nation, has made Ohio State the most attractive destination for any student-athlete in the country. The platform of Ohio State's brand, paired with compelling student-athlete stories and internationally known organizations, has allowed us to put some of the best content into the NIL market."

The Buckeyes are leading the way, as always. That's the Ohio State way, one could say.

 A PALACE FIT FOR KINGS. On Tuesday, my wife sent me a TikTok from Ohio State walk-on defensive end Caden Davis, who offered his followers a behind-the-scenes tour of the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. Naturally, I had to use it for the final section of my Skull Session because happy wife, happy life. Remember that, lads.

@itscadendavis Missed a bit but you get the idea / insta-itscadendavis #foryoupage #foryou #fyp #ohiostatefootball #ohiostate original sound - Caden Davis

Life as an Ohio State football player is very, very nice. Free breakfast, lunch and dinner, a state-of-the-art weight room, cold and hot tubs, massage chairs, a recovery room, a barber shop, a basketball court, a golf simulator and an arcade room. And that doesn't even cover all of it.

Meanwhile, I lived in a 12x13 foot dorm room at Siebert Hall, had expensive breakfast, lunch and dinner at Kennedy Commons, worked out in the state-of-the-art Jesse Owens South, didn't have a massage chair and paid for my haircuts. Where did I go wrong in life?

 SONG OF THE DAY. "King" by The Bundys.

 CUT TO THE CHASE. The Big Peanut once again reigns at the roadside in Georgia, after hurricane felled earlier goober...  They’re the names you don’t know. Hollywood’s "journeyman" actors explain why they are on strike... Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown signs a five-year, $304 million contract, the biggest in NBA history... Football great Jim Brown’s life and legacy to be celebrated as part of Hall of Fame weekend... Oppenheimer: The Genius, the Film, and the Project That Changed the World... Northeast, Midwest now it's your turn: "Hottest weather of the summer" coming.

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