One more sleep and a wake-up. That's all that separates us from Ohio State football. What a time to be alive.
Love Conquers All.
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) August 31, 2023
The Brotherhood is built on Love.
2023 Vol. 1 starts on Saturday.pic.twitter.com/Q6sLriQGVV
Let's have a good Friday, shall we?
I HAVE QUESTIONS. Inspired by Kevin Cole's study of NFL quarterbacks, The Athletic's Cooper Klaus created a model to predict future performances and success rates of college football quarterbacks. Klaus used that model to rank the 69 college starters from Power Five conferences and illustrate each player's ceiling and floor.
Here is how Klaus' model works:
Success rate the percentage of plays that generated positive Expected Points Added (EPA), which I’ve also adjusted for down and distance and strength of the opposing defense. ... By using data such as recruiting rankings, size and a player’s conference, I can incorporate many of the common beliefs we all have about these quarterbacks to produce a baseline career projection before they set foot on campus. From there, I update this projection as they begin to play and slowly place more weight on their actual performance than priors.
My model splits out passing and rushing into two components with their own projections. I then calculate a weighted score from the median projections, with 85 percent weight on a quarterback’s passing and 15 percent on their rushing to produce the rankings.
The model is hardly infallible and should be considered a starting point for debate, rather than the be-all and end-all. Players expected to break out who have fewer career snaps (Drew Allar, Joe Milton) will be ranked lower because the model has more uncertainty about them. The model also doesn’t have knowledge of schematic differences, athleticism or scouting reports. Despite these limitations, I believe this model is a useful tool in evaluating quarterbacks because the starting quarterback’s rating has shown to be a good predictor of future individual success and has a strong relationship to winning games.
USC's Caleb Williams – the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner – was the No. 1-ranked quarterback, according to the model. Cam Rising (Utah), Will Rogers (Mississippi State), Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland) and Drake Maye (UNC) rounded out the top five.
But where was Kyle McCord?
Well, McCord came after Bo Nix (Oregon), Kedon Slovis (BYU), Sam Hartman (Notre Dame), Payton Thorne (Auburn), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss), Spencer Rattler (South Carolina), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Jayden Daniels (LSU), KJ Jefferson (Arkansas), Quinn Ewers (Texas) and 30 other Power Five quarterbacks.
There he was – all the way at No. 46.
Huh?
Klaus' model ranks quarterbacks lower due to inexperience. And while I believe that is fair, it was still an odd experience to see Williams, Rising, Rogers... *scroll*... Nix, Slovis, Hartman... *scroll*... Jordan Travis (Florida State), Emory Jones (Cincinnati), Athan Kaliakmanis (Minnesota)... *scroll*... before I finally landed on Ohio State's QB1.
Per the model, McCord ranks in the 82nd percentile overall, the 85th percentile as a passer and the 47th percentile as a runner.
ANALYSIS
The former five-star recruit beat out Devin Brown to replace C.J. Stroud — at least for Week 1. He’s another player who the model has a wide range of outcomes for due to a lack of playing time, but he has held his own in the snaps he’s received. A 70.7 percent completion rate and 10.4 YPA helps give him the 28th highest ceiling, per the model. That may seem low, but that is a good mark for an unproven but highly touted player.
McCord's success rate (44.4%) features a ceiling of 48.9% and a floor of 39.9%. With Tagovailoa's current success rate at 48.9%, that means McCord could perform at a top-five level this season. However, he could also perform at a second-to-last level, as UVA quarterback Tony Muskett ranks 69th with a success rate of 39.5%.
I hope the former comes true. And good news about the latter: Devin Brown is (currently) McCord's backup, and Day has said he feels confident that Brown could lead the Ohio State offense to a successful season in 2023.
KIRK HERBSTREIT WAS CLOSE. In the offseason, Kirk Herbstreit shredded the “15 percenters,” a segment of Ohio State fans he believes are overly critical about the Buckeyes and are “a bunch of jackasses.”
“The 15 percenters, they get mad at anything,” he told The Toledo Blade. “That percent is going to be mad at something always. [Ryan Day] could win the Michigan game, go to the playoff and lose, and they’ll be mad about that. That group is just a bunch of jackasses who embarrass all of us as Ohio State fans. So I don’t care, honestly, what that group thinks. But the people who matter, the logical people who have a brain and understand the sport, they love what Ryan Day has done.”
According to The Athletic's "Hope-O-Meter" survey, 15% was a decent ballpark estimate for always-mad Ohio State fans, as Manny Navarro revealed that 91% of Buckeye Nation is "optimistic" before the 2023 college football season. That leaves 9% for the pessimists, whom Herbstreit calls the "lunatic fringe."
NEW - Swag is brimming in Knoxville, Lawrence, Eugene, Seattle, Louisville Lubbock, Manhattan, Durham and Starkville.
— Manny Navarro (@Manny_Navarro) August 31, 2023
How much optimism does your favorite teams fan base have at the start of the 2023 season? According to our fan survey probably a lot https://t.co/XhmxFRWUUE
At 91% optimism, Ohio State ranks 31st among all schools mentioned in the survey. Tennessee, Kansas, Oregon, Washington, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Louisville, Duke and Mississippi State were schools with 100% optimism in their fanbases, while Georgia and Penn State have 99%, Michigan has 98% and Alabama has 92%.
Also, I need to share another piece of info because I find it comical: Stanford fans are down horrendous and have 0% optimism ahead of 2023. That percentage ranks dead last in the Hope-O-Meter survey – even behind Northwestern fans, who have 4% optimism before the season starts despite the program's disastrous offseason.
But, like Tim May, I digress.
The 9% of pessimistic Ohio State fans should cheer up. Football is back. Marvin Harrison Jr. will score 100 touchdowns, TreVeyon Henderson will rack up 10,000 yards, Tommy Eichenberg will secure 1,000 tackles, the Buckeyes will defeat Michigan in Ann Arbor and Ohio State will win a national championship. Then, we can all be optimists once more.
CARNELL TATE, WR3? Carnell Tate has earned lots of praise this offseason: Ryan Day said he has been “very impressed” with Tate, Brian Hartline called Tate “very mature” and Marvin Harrison Jr. claimed Tate will be “one of the best receivers to ever come through Ohio State.”
That praise placed Tate on the radar of the Maxwell Football Club, who named him to a watch list for its annual Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award this week. Tate was the lone Ohio State freshman nominated.
The Maxwell Football Club today announced the watch list for the 6th annual Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award. #MaxwellFootball pic.twitter.com/HcrOnGE1oN
— Maxwell Football (@MaxwellFootball) August 30, 2023
I have a bold prediction to make, one Chris Lauderback made a couple of weeks back: Carnell Tate will end the 2023 season as Ohio State's No. 3 receiver behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Yes, there are obvious obstacles to that accomplishment, such as the existence of Xavier Johnson and Julian Fleming, the fact that Harrison and Egbuka will seldom come off the field and, perhaps most apparent, that Tate is a freshman who will need time to acclimate himself to college football.
Still, I have tasted the Kool-Aid. The Kool-Aid tastes good. Carnell Tate will be Ohio State's WR3 by season's end. Also, I am free from retribution since I called it a bold prediction. That's how bold predictions work! They are bold!
THREADS FOR SALE. When Ohio State faces Michigan State on Nov. 11, the Buckeyes will wear alternate uniforms with the team's trademark helmet and gray jerseys, pants and cleats. On Friday at 8 a.m., the alternate gray jersey will be available at The Ohio State Team Shop, the official merchandise store of the school's 36 varsity sports.
Days til the Alt Gray Uniforms will be available for purchase This Friday starting at 8 AM Buckeye fans will be able to buy this sweet jersey
— Ohio State Buckeyes (@OhioStAthletics) August 30, 2023
Sign up and be the first to know about items at the Team Shop: https://t.co/shxwQZPKeE
More: https://t.co/jhuK2tgZja pic.twitter.com/ZuHPM0paSM
While the player featured in Ohio State's previous promotions of the alternate uniform wore No. 23, the jersey featured at The Ohio State Team Shop will have No. 1 pressed on the front and back. The jersey will be priced at $140.
Ohio State's Week 11 battle with Michigan State has been labeled a “Gray Out” at Ohio Stadium, so the jersey would be the perfect purchase for all who plan to attend the contest.
Remember: Just because you have a replica uniform doesn't mean you can run on the field during the game. If you attempt to do so, Anthony Schlegel will spawn on the sidelines and body-slam you to the turf. Be warned.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Crazy Train” by Ozzy Osbourne.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Police stop Nebraska man for bucking the law with a bull riding shotgun in his car... Visual artists fight back against AI companies for repurposing their work... Taylor Swift Eras Tour concert film coming to movie theaters in October... Statue believed to depict Marcus Aurelius seized from Cleveland museum in looting investigation... Michigan State-Tennessee, Hawaii-Saint Mary's exhibitions to support Maui.
