Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State is the unanimous second-ranked team in college football.
The updated CFP bracket projection has arrived
— ESPN (@espn) November 13, 2024
Did your team make the cut? pic.twitter.com/V7yjMjfND1
You love to see it.
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index, as well as how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 29.7 | 38.4 (8) | 9.1 (1) | 0.3 (21) |
| 2 | TEXAS | 28.6 | 41.1 (4) | 12.1 (4) | -0.3 (116) |
| 3 | OREGON | 27.4 | 42.6 (2) | 15.5 (10) | 0.3 (29) |
| 4 | OLE MISS | 26.8 | 39.5 (5) | 13.1 (5) | 0.4 (1) |
| 5 | ALABAMA | 26.8 | 42.4 (3) | 15.8 (12) | 0.1 (48) |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Northwestern (79), Indiana (11), Michigan (40)
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALABAMA | 26.9 | 54% | 30.9% | 74.5% | 15.2% |
| 2 | TEXAS | 26.8 | 37.2% | 37.7% | 82.6% | 17.0% |
| 3 | OHIO STATE | 25.9 | 44.5% | 44.8% | 93.7% | 17.6% |
| 4 | NOTRE DAME | 24.1 | 58.7% | N/A | 66.7% | 7.3% |
| 5 | OLE MISS | 22.8 | 77.7% | 0.9% | 56.5% | 4.3% |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Northwestern (79), Indiana (10), Michigan (42)
ESPN Analytics
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP PREDICTOR % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NORTHWESTERN | NOV. 16 | CHICAGO, IL * | 95.3% OHIO STATE |
| INDIANA | NOV. 23 | COLUMBUS, OH | 72.9% OHIO STATE |
| MICHIGAN | NOV. 30 | COLUMBUS, OH | 93.0% OHIO STATE |
| * AT WRIGLEY FIELD | |||
This week, Eleven Warriors asked readers if Indiana can beat Ohio State in two weeks. Many readers pointed out that of course the Hoosiers can beat the Buckeyes; whether or not the Hoosiers will beat the Buckeyes is a different question. So, we made that our poll for Tuesday.
Readers were divided on the former poll. Of the over 5,000 voters on the poll, around 51 percent think Indiana has no chance, while around 49 percent think Indiana does. On the latter, around 81 percent of the 4,000 voters picked the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers, while 19 percent – a sad 19 percent! – picked the Hoosiers over the Buckeyes.
Me, personally?
I'll take Ohio State. But then again, when do I not?
STOP RATE. Ohio State has one of the best defenses in college football. I know some people read that and screamed, "But what about the Oregon game!" And to them, I would respond: The Oregon game is the reason the opening statement is true.
| TEAM | STOP RATE | PTS/DRIVE |
|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 81.3% | 0.86 |
| NOTRE DAME | 81.2% | 0.94 |
| TENNESSEE | 80.8% | 1.00 |
| ARMY | 80.6% | 1.18 |
| TEXAS | 79.6% | 0.95 |
| JAMES MADISON | 77.9% | 1.28 |
| OLE MISS | 75.2% | 1.18 |
| INDIANA | 74.5% | 1.38 |
| ALABAMA | 74.3% | 1.33 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | 73.9% | 1.40 |
After Ohio State's loss to Oregon, Ryan Day and Jim Knowles re-engineered the Buckeyes' defense. (For a deeper look at how Day and Knowles did that, check out Kyle Jones' Film Study from last week.) Since Ohio State started from scratch, the Silver Bullets held Nebraska to 17 points, Penn State to six points (Will Howard threw a pick-six that accounted for the other seven) and Purdue to zero points.
That's pretty good!
The point totals are evidence of Ohio State's improvement. So is the team's stop rate. Before the Oregon loss, the Buckeyes ranked No. 1 in the metric but fell outside the top five when the Ducks racked up 496 yards and scored 32 points on them in Eugene.
Four weeks later, the Buckeyes are back at No. 1 in stop rate, as the defense has forced opponents to punt or commit turnovers on 81.3 percent of drives after nine contests.
If Ohio State beats Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan and remains No. 1, the Buckeyes will face Oregon as the top-ranked team in stop rate for the second time. Hopefully, Ohio State will prove itself worthy of that title the next time around. If it does, the results could look much, much different than they did at Autzen Stadium last month.
NOON SCHMOON. Ohio State will end its regular season with six straight noon games. That's all we talked about on Monday. That's all we talked about on Tuesday, too. The keyword in both of those sentences? We. Because the Buckeyes haven't talked about it much at all.
When asked Tuesday about the "backlash" noon kickoffs have received, Ryan Day said it's the last of his concerns. He just wants to win football games, no matter when those games start and end.
"Listen, I gotta deal with a lot of fan backlash for things other than the times of games, so I'm gonna leave that for other people to deal with. I got other things I got to deal with," he said. "Whenever they tell us to play, we're gonna play. It doesn't matter where it is – it could be on a baseball field, it could be 11 a.m., it could be at night. We're gonna put the football down and go play. I'll worry about the team."
It was the perfect answer.
It shouldn't matter when Ohio State plays so long as the Buckeyes play to win the game.
That's what Ohio State will do Saturday, and the Saturday after that, and the Saturday after that.
And if the Buckeyes win on all those Saturdays, then they'll get their coveted night game – a night game at Lucas Oil Stadium for a coveted Big Ten championship trophy.
THIS AND THAT. Another Skull Session, another This and That™.
You know the drill.
I cannot believe Sammy Sasso will be back on the mats for Ohio State's season opener with Chattanooga. In August 2023, there were conversations about whether Sasso would walk again after he suffered a gunshot wound near campus. Fourteen months later, he will wrestle another 165-pound person in front of thousands of people at the Covelli Center. What a Savage!
is back. #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/OaQDEgbrL4
— Ohio State Wrestling (@wrestlingbucks) November 8, 2024
Seth McLaughlin announced Tuesday that his "Run the Damn Ball" hats have sold out a second time. In a post on X, the Ohio State center thanked Buckeye Nation for its support as he continues to raise funds for the Mid-Ohio Food Collective. He also directed those who could not purchase a hat to donate via a new link he created for the non-profit.
We are SOLD OUT again! I am blown away by all the love and support weve received from Buckeye nation! Thank you to everyone who has bought a hat. For those that were not able to get a one, I encourage you to contribute at the link below!https://t.co/9CMuTJMJtt https://t.co/yJ17Qmsb83
— Seth McLaughlin (@Seth_Mc24) November 12, 2024
Last month, C.J. Stroud appeared on the TIME100 Next list, created to celebrate and honor the next generation of athletes and celebrities who will "shape the future and define the next generation of leadership." That was clear evidence of Stroud's influence as a 23-year-old entering his second professional season with the Houston Texans. Here's more:
The top 10 selling NFL jerseys of the year so far. pic.twitter.com/dFyL36Qtbb
— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2024
Give credit where credit is due: Day, Chip Kelly and Justin Frye have worked wonders with Ohio State's offensive line this season. So much so that the Buckeyes are among 12 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award, along with Alabama, Army, Indiana, Iowa, Notre Dame, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Tulane.
Our OL has been named to the @JoeMooreAward Semifinalist List pic.twitter.com/8Lcooz49P9
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 12, 2024
Here are some of the statistics the Joe Moore Award featured for Ohio State in its press release:
- 53.2% of rush yards come before contact (third-highest in FBS). 2.91 yards before contact per attempt (fourth in FBS). Only 19% of runs saw contact at or behind the line of scrimmage (12th lowest in FBS).
- Allowing pressure on just 22.0% of dropbacks this season (fourth-best pressure rate in FBS). Ohio State’s line has allowed just 1.22 sacks per game; in six of nine games this season, the line has allowed either one or zero sacks. Ohio State ranks ninth nationally with 32.0 tackles for loss allowed in nine games and is eighth nationally in fewest TFLs allowed per game (3.56).
- All those stats have been put up while the line has been reshaped. Following a season-ending injury to LT Josh Simmons, the Buckeyes replaced him with Zen Michalski. When Michalski went down with an injury vs. Nebraska, the unit was reworked to move LG Donovan Jackson to LT and inserted Carson Hinzman – a 12-game starter at center in 2023 – to LG. In their first game together at Penn State, the unit helped Ohio State rush for 176 yards, including 58 on a game-ending 11-play drive in the fourth quarter.
That's all, folks!
SONG OF THE DAY. "Fly Like an Eagle" - Steve Miller Band.
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