Good morning and welcome to your Friday NFL Draft Special Skull Session.TM
So Browns fans, how are you feeling about second-team All-SEC defensive end Barkevious Mingo?
Do you agree with Coach Billick that "Mingo will be a 3rd down pass rush specialist to start but will grow into a complete player in the mold of Aldon Smith"?
And for the Bengals out there, are you comfortable with Cincy selecting the Domer Tyler Eifert? In a tight end heavy league, Jermaine Gresham could be fighting for his job next season:
Eifert has improved as a run blocker, but CBSSports.com's Rob Rang says “his most impressive traits remain his vacuum hands and body control.” According to Rang, Eifert “was consistently able to adjust in space and make the contested grab.”
Otherwise, surprises included E.J. Manuel as the first and only quarterback selected in the first round. Most believed Geno Smith or former Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib would be taken before Manuel (if not Matt Barkley), but the Bills and new coach Doug Marrone gambled on the FSU player:
To say that this was a surprise is putting it mildly...As NFLDraftScout.com wrote in the leadup to the draft, “With great size, athleticism and intriguing arm talent, Manuel has as much upside as any quarterback in the 2013 draft. But despite statistical gains in 2012, Manuel largely remains the unpolished passer he was a year ago.”
Congrats to Manuel, who had more than one reason to celebrate last night.
Otherwise things largely proceeded as planned, even if that unfortunately meant that no team went for Johnathan Hankins or John Simon. CBS considers Hankins the 12th-best remaining player after day one, though NFL.com doesn't list him among the next 20.
While I haven't spent nearly the same amount of time studying this year's draft prospects as NFL GMs, I can say that the Steelers will be happy with what they get from Jarvis Jones. The Lions are building one heck of a defensive line with the addition of fake glasses-wearing Ziggy Ansah. In contrast, I'm not that impressed by Sheldon Richardson, but at least he probably won't butt fumble for the Jets.
With a lineman-heavy first round, Rob Rang was correct in predicting the night would be "all steak and not too much sizzle."
Finally, what better way to conclude our coverage of the NFL Draft than a fashion review of the first night. I'm not totally sure who this post is meant for (the large subsection of NFL fans who enjoy a People Magazine every now and then?), but I feel obligated to share the link regardless.
HOW GOOD WILL THEY BE? Now that people have finished crumpling up their first-round mock drafts (or taking them off the fridge), how good will these players turn out to be? Thankfully plenty of folks have taken a stab at measuring the best and worst picks and projecting whether a player will be successful.
It's certainly not easy, wrote vintage Malcolm Gladwell:
This is the quarterback problem. There are certain jobs where almost nothing you can learn about candidates before they start predicts how they’ll do once they’re hired. So how do we know whom to choose in cases like that?...If college performance doesn’t tell us anything, why shouldn’t we value someone who hasn’t had the chance to play as highly as someone who plays as well as anyone in the land?
That's an old article, but Gladwell is on to something here – while star ratings and draft grades are on average correlated with NFL success and failure, there are many high-profile cases in which projections are simply way off.
Outside of the Lions' and Bills' picks last night, NFL teams usually have to be fairly risk averse or else be saddled with an expensive bust. Quarterbacks are especially risky, with an average of only one in five signal callers panning out in the League. Maybe that's why Barkley and Geno Smith fell to at least the second round.
Thankfully, teams are sometimes lucky to get a great return on a small investment by taking chances on players in later rounds. The Patriots in particular are no strangers to this strategy, picking former Buckeye backup Nate Ebner in the late rounds last year.
Predicting how well a skill player might perform is all the more difficult now that hybrid or pivot players are finally being utilized in the NFL. Some are calling former West Virginia wide receiver Tavon Austin the future of the wide receiver position in the NFL:
...as offenses have spread out, conflicts for defenders have become less about size and more about space. By lining Harvin up in the backfield in a passing formation, the likelihood that he’ll be matched up with a linebacker increases. Now the offense is able to exploit soft spots in the defense — notably the flat — with an actual wide receiver.
If that sounds familiar, Robert Mays is describing the "Percy Position" or the "Harvin Role" H-back position that has invaded Buckeye discussion forums since Urban was hired. With guys like Jordan Hall, Dontre Wilson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jalin Marshall on the current roster, Ohio State has the potential to begin funneling pivot players into the NFL.
OT Eric Fisher went first overall in a linemen heavy night QB RECRUITS DROPPING LIKE FLIES. Shifting gears to the recruiting front, Buckeye quarterback target William Ulmer committed to Maryland yesterday, crossing yet another potential Buckeye QB target off of Meyer and Pantoni's board.
Ulmer has the luxury of tossing the pigskin to other local stars and former Buckeye big targets Stefon Diggs and Taivon Jacobs. You have to hand it to Maryland's staff for keeping star talent in state. It's amazing that Randy Edsall has been able to keep these guys from going away to bigger name schools.
Don't fret about quarterback recruiting just yet. Louisiana QB Brandon Harris and Kentucky native Drew Barker are getting longer looks now that other targets are no longer available.
BEING BIELEMA. Someone wrote about how Arkansas fans and players can't get enough of Bret Bielema, so I feel like it's my duty to wake up the state with a public service announcement of who they're actually getting.
But maybe it's a match made in hog heaven (sorry):
The love-fest between Bielema and Arkansas - where his outgoing personality has been welcomed at fan clubs across the state - is great, but the question remains: How quickly can he pick up the pieces from last year's disaster and rebuild a team that became an afterthought in the Southeastern Conference?
Bielema may bring hope to all, but I can promise Hog fans that they shouldn't expect to win a Rose Bowl anytime soon.
B1G-ONLY DRAFT. One final bit of draft-related goodness for you – what if Big Ten teams could draft each other's players? Rittenberg and Bennett explored this hypothetical in their own mock first round, and the two Big Ten bloggers over at ESPN think very highly of Ohio State players.
After taking Braxton with the first overall pick, five of the first twelve picks were Buckeyes. Ryan Shazier, Noah Spence, Adolphus Washington, and Roby all made the cut, while the ESPN duo only selected Taylor Lewan and Devin Gardner from Michigan.
LEAVIN WITH SOME LINKS. Why are athletes doing more reality TV shows? We shouldn't have enough for a top 10 list... Mack Brown really needs a good year or he's (Texas) toast (I couldn't resist)... A positive take on conference realignment? Maybe if it makes players come back... I hope this inspires you (Cage has excellent taste)... Tempo in college football... USC has a sad.
