With just two weeks remaining in the college football season for most teams in most conferences, our understanding of the postseason picture is beginning to take shape. We already know that Oregon has secured its spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game over other teams in the Pac-12 North. Florida State played its last ACC regular season this game and clinched its berth to the ACC Championship Game on Saturday as well.
Many teams in the SEC and ACC are also finished with conference play altogether. Only the Big XII stands out as having upward of three conference games remaining before crowning its conference champion(s) for the season.
Ohio State toughed out elements, turnovers, and a great Minnesota running game to leave the Twin Cities as seven-point victors. What else happened around college football this week?
The SEC is Basically Decided
There were a few important games played in the SEC on Saturday. The most important was played in Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Alabama knocked Mississippi State off the top spot in the AP and Coaches Poll with a 25-20 win in Tuscaloosa.
Mississippi State fell just three spots to no. 4 in the ranking, ostensibly, in part, because of its conference affiliation. Now that Alabama is no. 1, a loss in Tuscaloosa like a "quality loss". With Mississippi State at no. 4, the result for Alabama is a "quality win". This is circular reasoning, but fans outside the Deep South know it now as an old hat.
It does raise an interesting question about what happens to Mississippi State when the playoff committee makes its new weekly determination on Tuesday. A five-point loss is not terrible in the broad scheme of things for Mississippi State. I was expecting worse. However, Mississippi State had been walking on egg shells all season with a back-loaded schedule of trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford.
The Bulldogs' three marquee wins in 2014 (LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn) all had awful losses on Saturday. Its non-conference schedule consists of Southern Miss (3-8), UAB (5-5), South Alabama (6-4), and Tennessee-Martin (5-6, FCS).
Mississippi State is Baylor in a prettier dress.
Past features profiling that week that was would outline plausible scenarios in which the SEC could send no team to the College Football Playoff. This seems untenable right now. It hinges on Auburn beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl, which seems like a longshot now that Auburn is in freefall. It also would require a Georgia Tech upset of a hopeful SEC champion Georgia, which is never a wise cause for optimism. Georgia Tech has one win over Georgia since the turn of the century.
Alabama is the odds-on favorite to win the SEC and, possibly, secure the top spot in the College Football Playoff. Assuming Mississippi State loses the Egg Bowl, it would be the only SEC team through to the playoff.
"Escaping" and "Passing Tests"
Texas Christian had a surprise scare against, of all teams, Kansas in Lawrence. The Horned Frogs had looked like a world-class team in previous week but left Lawrence as only four-point winners.
This result is weird, but I'm inclined to look the other way. I've mentioned before that conference road games are, all else equal, the most difficult games to play. Conceding 342 passing yards to a Kansas team that is 76th in passing offense is somewhat inexplicable, as were the three turnovers. Alas, there are games like this. They happen, even for good/great teams.
One minor intrigue came from snapshots of ESPN.com comparing the treatment the Buckeyes were given for a seven-point win vis-a-vis the treatment afforded to Texas Christian.
I'm sorry but this is trash. RT @GerdOzone: Ah, this again. ESPN having fun with headlines. pic.twitter.com/H9XGdUPYMt
— Darron Lee (@DLeeMG8) November 16, 2014
This may be unpopular around here, but, again, I'm inclined to look the other way on something like this.
Objecting to these two headlines on ESPN.com requires two assumptions. First, one would have to assume that "escapes" isn't appropriate for how Ohio State defeated Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. I happen to think it's somewhat appropriate, even if weather and uncharacteristic turnovers qualified what otherwise looked like it was going to be a comfortable 17-point win earned in the second half of the game.
Second, one would also have to assume that the same team of writers/desk jockeys is responsible for both headlines. I'm not sure that's the case. If it's not, the discrepancy between both headlines is attributable to differences of opinion between two different people or groups of people.
Besides, ESPN's dog-whistling seems more reserved for its television personalities, less its online presence.
TCU remains just one spot ahead of one-loss Baylor, which gave TCU its only loss on the season. We will have to see what the playoff committee thinks tomorrow. TCU is currently three spots ahead of Baylor in the playoff committee rankings and in the current field of four.
Forks Down in Corvallis
Maybe the biggest upset of the weekend happened when most college football fans were asleep. Oregon State snapped a four-game losing streak to get just its second conference win of the season against Arizona State.
The Sun Devils, a week removed from beating the brakes off Notre Dame, were previously a one-loss team and are currently the playoff committee's no. 6 team. This will change tomorrow night.
Sean Mannion was excellent in this game. The Pac-12's all-time passing leader was 19/33 passing for 251 yards and two touchdowns. However, Oregon State rushed for over 247 yards on 37 carries to complement Mannion. Both Terron Ward and Storm Woods had over 100 yards rushing.
This loss eliminates Arizona State from playoff consideration. However, Arizona State should still be a favorite to win the Pac-12 South. If it wins out and USC beats UCLA next week, the Sun Devils will play Oregon in Santa Clara.
Basically, Ohio State fans now have another chaos team that can help its playoff situation.
Elsewhere in College Football
Florida lost to South Carolina in epic fashion and Will Muschamp is fired. Florida could still finish the season 6-5 (recall that Idaho game was canceled) and make it to a bowl game. Come hell or high water, Michigan needs to play Florida in a bowl game.
Virginia Tech upset Duke, finally doing something useful this season after upsetting Ohio State. Cincinnati beat East Carolina, which beat Virginia Tech the week after Virginia Tech beat us. Ohio State now has at least a transitive win over the Hokies this season.
Melvin Gordon was the toast of college football this weekend, but Keenan Reynolds had a great game as well. The Navy quarterback had a career-high 277 rushing yards and six touchdowns in a 52-19 win over Georgia Southern.
Remember when Kentucky was threatening to be the new thing in college football after taking Florida to three overtimes? It's lost five-straight games now.
Auburn's 2014 season reminds me a bit of Alabama's 2010 season. It's way too talented to already have three losses (and maybe four by the end of the month). Basically, Auburn is going to be a scary Outback Bowl team.
Missouri just won't die. I think Ohio State fans should want Alabama to have to face Georgia, even with Gurley done for the year. However, it would be hilarious for the SEC Championship Game to feature a team that lost at home to a three-win Indiana team in a game shown on the SEC Network.
