Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Back Like It Never Left
| Week | Rank | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-season | 6 | 1224 |
| 2 | 4 | 1324 |
| 3 | 3 | 1359 |
| 4 | 2 | 1442 |
| 5 | 2 | 1440 |
| 6 | 2 | 1451 |
| 7 | 2 | 1444 |
| 8 | 2 | 1457 |
| 9 | 6 | 1143 |
| 10 | 6 | 1207 |
| 11 | 6 | 1245 |
| 12 | 2 | 1455 |
Ohio State was among the week's biggest winners. The Buckeyes posted another 62-3 win over a Big Ten team with a rout in College Park. Coupled with losses by the previous AP No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4, the Buckeyes are back at No. 2 behind Alabama.
It even leapfrogged Louisville in the process. Ohio State gained 210 points from last week while Louisville added just 12 points.
Better yet, almost all voters have the Buckeyes at No. 2 behind consensus No. 1 Alabama. The Buckeyes almost have more points in the AP's poll than it did any other week this season. Its two points (and several No. 1 votes) shy from its position on Week 8 before the loss to Penn State.
Put another way, Ohio State is almost the consensus No. 2 team in the country. All but six voters have Ohio State at No. 2. Joe Dubin, Garland Gillen, Michael Lev and Joe Walljasper have Ohio State at No. 3. Louisville is their No. 2.
Michael Bonner's take is a bit more interesting. He has Ohio State at No. 4 with Michigan at No. 2 and Clemson at No. 3.
Josh Kendall (more on him later) has Ohio State at No. 5.
Clemson, Michigan, and Washington All Fall
It was unusual, almost unprecedented, to see the AP No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 all lose with two games remaining in the regular season. The nature of the losses—two at home (Clemson, Washington) and one on the road (Michigan) as a three-touchdown favorite—seems to recall the insanity of 2007 down the stretch.
| Team | Week 11 Rank | Week 11 Points | Week 12 Rank | Week 12 Points | Highest VOte | Lowest VOte |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 3 | 1408 | 5 | 1304 | 3 (multiple) | 10 (Josh Kendall) |
| Michigan | 2 | 1432 | 4 | 1323 | 2 (Michael Bonner) | 11 (Josh Kendall) |
| Washington | 4 | 1364 | 7 | 1150 | 4 (Robert Cessna) | 11 (Joe Dubin) |
Clemson, Michigan, and Washington all took huge tumbles down the AP Poll. Washington lost the most in this week's AP Poll among those three. The rationale here is understandable. Washington had arguably the lightest schedule of those three prior to this point. Its non-conference schedule included Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State. What otherwise would've been its two biggest wins on its schedule—Stanford and Oregon—are both underwhelming this year. Oregon even has seven losses. Washington lost 214 points in the AP relative to the 109 points Michigan lost and the 104 points Clemson lost.
Michigan actually lost more points in the AP poll than Clemson did but it retains a 19-point lead over Clemson for No. 4 (and, ostensibly, a playoff spot if the season ended right now). Michigan curiously retained a No. 2 vote from last week as well.
Josh Kendall's Ballot Makes No Sense
Jon Wilner is the usual comic foil for these features. Lately, it's been Josh Kendall, who writes for The State in Columbia, South Carolina. His ballots after Ohio State lost at Penn State just seem... strange.
| Kendall's Rank | Team | AP Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 1 |
| 2 | Louisville | 3 |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 6 |
| 4 | Penn State | 9 |
| 5 | Ohio State | 2 |
| 6 | Florida State | 17 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 8 |
| 8 | USC | 15 |
| 9 | Washington | 7 |
| 10 | Clemson | 5 |
Consider his top ten this week.
So, there's a lot going on here. Recall how I've noted he's been insistent that Penn State be ranked above Ohio State given the head-to-head result, even if Penn State has one more loss than Ohio State? He still has Wisconsin, also with two losses, ahead of Ohio State. To recap, two-loss Wisconsin, with losses to Michigan and Ohio State, is two spots ahead of Ohio State and eight spots ahead of Michigan!
7-3 Florida State has no earthly business at No. 6. It's the highest rank for Florida State by three spots (i.e. Matt Charboneau and Ed Johnson both have the Seminoles at No. 9). Florida State has effectively zero probability of a playoff berth and Kendall seems to think they're on the cusp.
Besides, didn't his No. 10 Clemson beat his No. 6 Florida State in Tallahassee? I seem to recall watching that.
I omit the next 15 teams on his ballot, but some of them are outright daffy. He's one of two voters to not include No. 14 Western Michigan on his ballot. 6-4 Iowa is his No. 25 team after its upset of Michigan. Better yet, 5-5 Ole Miss is his No. 24!
Other Peculiar Observations
- The AP Top 25 says "hello" to Troy for the first time in Troy's football history. The No. 25 Troy Trojans appear as high as No. 15 on Steve Wiseman's ballot.
- Mandy Mitchell has West Virginia at No. 5 on her ballot.
- Andy Greder has LSU at No. 9.
- Steve Batterson and Garry Smits left USC off their ballots.
