In this system, we classify teams based on 538's playoff predictions on how much each team has their destiny in their own hands. Total destiny will mean they win the rest of their games and they are certainly in. It does not mean how likely they are to win the rest of their games

Total Destiny (>99%):

Only four teams control their own destiny. Only 3 can win out.

• Ohio State
• Georgia
• TCU
• Michigan

Close to Destiny (95%+)

No Teams

Some Help Needed (85-95%) 

I think LSU is win and in if they have wins against Alabama and Georgia. Oregon will have a hard time justifying a trip if it's a decision between them and Georgia, each with 1-loss, but the loss was early enough in the year that maybe they can get by.

• Oregon
• LSU

Looking Good (75-85%)

I really like Clemson's odds if they win out. It may come down between them and the Big Ten East runner up. I could see Ohio State losing and getting in over Clemson due to the ND game, but Ohio State is really lacking many quality wins. I think USC also has a good shot if they can finish the season strong with some big wins. They have only 1 loss to a decent Utah team on the road by 1 point.

• Clemson
• USC

Maybe (50-75%)

Tennessee is the big surprise here with a low shot of getting in. Their Bama win looks a lot less good and they are the SEC team left out if LSU upsets Georgia. UNC's only loss is to ND, which is a point to put a potential 1-loss Ohio State team in ahead of them, but they also have a bigger win over Pitt than Tenn did. I wouldn't count them out. 

• Tennessee
• UCLA
• UNC

There's a Chance (25-50%)

Illinois has a great story this year with 1-loss, and wins over Ohio State and Michigan would be enough to impress the committee. I don't see any 3-loss champs making it without complete chaos. Ole Miss needs a slip from LSU, which is possible as they face Arkansas and A&M on the road. If Ole Miss beats Bama and wins out, their chances are likely better than the odds here. I just can't see a 1 or 2-loss SEC champ being left out when so few teams are undefeated.

• Texas (yes even 3-loss Texas has a shot if they win out.... 538 gives them a 44% chance!)
• Utah
• Ole Miss
• Baylor
• Illinois

My Personal Take:
Lock up spots for the SEC Champ and the B1G Champ outside of chaos. Lock in a spot for Georgia if they make it to Atlanta as well, which may be the SEC Champ spot. TCU is next in line if they win out. Oregon/USC/UCLA will also get a spot if one of them wins out, although they need to avoid SEC chaos. Clemson/UNC probably take the next spot if there is one available, or if the P12 crowns a 2-loss champ.

My Prediction:

1) Georgia

2) Ohio State

3) Tennessee

4) Clemson

Georgia gets the first round bye and Ohio State has to go through 2 SEC teams for a title.