Reading the Threat Level from this week and the general narrative around the parity in college football had me wondering about the strength of the elite teams this season. I used SP+ for the bulk of my work and while it isn't a perfect metric, it did shed some light on what we've seen this season. By SP+ there are ZERO national championship caliber teams this season.

For context, the highest rated team this season (Michigan @ 25.1), would be a severe underdog against every #1 ranked team of the last 5 seasons. They would be 10pt underdogs against 2019 Ohio St/2020 Bama, 7pt underdogs against 2021 Georgia, and 12 pt underdogs to 2022 Georgia. Better yet, the top ranked team of 2023 (Michigan), would be 6th in 2019, 5th in 2020, 4th in 2021, and 6th in 2022. This means that 2023 Michigan would actually be considered the 18th best team since 2019, despite their #1 SP+ ranking. Last year's Michigan team would be a full 6pt favorite against last year's team, despite what the narrative from Michigan fans would lead you to believe.

Another interesting aspect is how much worse teams are playing than their pre-season SP+ ranking would have expected. By SP+ there were 4 national title contending squads this season. Those were Georgia (29.2), Ohio St (29.0), UM (28.6), and Bama (28.1). Well half way through the season, all of those teams have seen severe drops in their ratings. The movement of each of those rankings is Georgia (-5.8), Ohio St (-5), UM (-3.5), and Bama (-8). I do think that matches what we've seen throughout this season.

I guess the final conclusion is that the parity we've seen this season has come as a direct result of a severe drop off in the quality of the top 4 teams. I still think our Buckeyes have all the tools to keep improving, especially in regards to the offense. Just look at the improvement of the offense from early 2021, to the end of the season. I guess all I have to say is...why not us?