Week 11 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150382/fake-bcs-rankings-week-11
Week 12 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150598/fake-bcs-rankings-week-12
Week 13 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150792/fake-bcs-rankings-week-13
Week 14 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/151053/fake-bcs-rankings-week-14
I hate doing these after a loss. Especially that loss. In fact, last year I didn't. But the question is always how far did we fall? How far should we have fallen? Maybe the BCS can help answer that question.
There is a 3 way tie for 3rd in the computers. We are one of those. Unfortunately, humans are very much a "what have you done for me lately" creature so of course there is some overreaction. Yes, we lost to a really really bad Michigan team. But our body of work still consists of 2 top 10 wins and a loss to the #1 team on the road, 3 time zones away, by 1 point. There's an alternate reality where Fielding is given the opportunity to kick the game winner at Oregon, makes that kick, and it gives him the confidence to not miss 2 chip shots in a tie game last weekend. Unfortunately, we don't live in that reality.
I'm also curious why we were kicking into the wind in both the 2nd and 4th quarters. We had the option to choose which goal to defend in the first half, so it's strange to me that we didn't choose to have the wind at our back for the 2nd quarter at least. Michigan doesn't hit the 54 yard field goal in the 2nd quarter if they are kicking into the wind. I thought about that during the game and haven't seen that addressed anywhere. Anyway, doesn't matter now.
Here's the rankings for this week, using the full BCS formula with all 6 computers:
| Team | Conf | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | B10 | 12-0 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 |
| Texas | SEC | 11-1 | 2 | 0.9591 | 2 | 0.9574 | 2 | 0.9600 | 2 | 0.9600 |
| Penn St | B10 | 11-1 | 3 | 0.8862 | 3 | 0.8890 | 3 | 0.8996 | 3 | 0.8700 |
| Notre Dame | FBSI | 11-1 | 4 | 0.8784 | 4 | 0.8858 | 4 | 0.8792 | 3 | 0.8700 |
| Georgia | SEC | 10-2 | 5 | 0.8211 | 5 | 0.8400 | 5 | 0.8332 | 6 | 0.7900 |
| Ohio St | B10 | 10-2 | 6 | 0.7880 | 7 | 0.7574 | 8 | 0.7366 | 3 | 0.8700 |
| SMU | ACC | 11-1 | 7 | 0.7482 | 8 | 0.7271 | 7 | 0.7374 | 7 | 0.7800 |
| Indiana | B10 | 11-1 | 8 | 0.6996 | 9 | 0.6832 | 9 | 0.6755 | 8 | 0.7400 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 10-2 | 9 | 0.6993 | 6 | 0.7742 | 6 | 0.7736 | 11 | 0.5500 |
| Boise St | MWC | 11-1 | 10 | 0.6374 | 10 | 0.6684 | 10 | 0.6340 | 9 | 0.6100 |
| Alabama | SEC | 9-3 | 11 | 0.5517 | 11 | 0.5419 | 11 | 0.5532 | 10 | 0.5600 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 9-3 | 12 | 0.5091 | 13 | 0.5090 | 12 | 0.5283 | 14 | 0.4900 |
| Arizona St | B12 | 10-2 | 13 | 0.4996 | 12 | 0.5368 | 13 | 0.5019 | 16 | 0.4600 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 10-2 | 14 | 0.4951 | 14 | 0.4877 | 14 | 0.4875 | 13 | 0.5100 |
| Iowa St | B12 | 10-2 | 15 | 0.4413 | 16 | 0.4174 | 16 | 0.4264 | 15 | 0.4800 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 9-3 | 16 | 0.4280 | 15 | 0.4626 | 15 | 0.4815 | 17 | 0.3400 |
| BYU | B12 | 10-2 | 17 | 0.4033 | 17 | 0.3535 | 18 | 0.3162 | 12 | 0.5400 |
| Clemson | ACC | 9-3 | 18 | 0.2829 | 18 | 0.3239 | 17 | 0.3449 | 19 | 0.1800 |
| Illinois | B10 | 9-3 | 19 | 0.1855 | 21 | 0.1768 | 21 | 0.1698 | 18 | 0.2100 |
| UNLV | MWC | 10-2 | 20 | 0.1739 | 19 | 0.2194 | 19 | 0.1925 | 23 | 0.1100 |
| Missouri | SEC | 9-3 | 21 | 0.1436 | 22 | 0.1381 | 20 | 0.1728 | 21 | 0.1200 |
| Colorado | B12 | 9-3 | 22 | 0.1375 | 20 | 0.1903 | 22 | 0.1623 | NR | 0.0600 |
| Army | AAC | 10-1 | 23 | 0.1118 | 24 | 0.1174 | 23 | 0.1479 | NR | 0.0700 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9-3 | 24 | 0.1115 | 23 | 0.1329 | 25 | 0.0815 | 21 | 0.1200 |
| Memphis | AAC | 10-2 | 25 | 0.0731 | 25 | 0.0781 | 24 | 0.1411 | NR | 0.0000 |
CFP Seedings:
- Oregon
- Texas
- SMU
- Boise State
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Arizona State
Matchups:
- Indiana (8 - 0.6996) at Ohio State (6 - 0.7880) - Winner plays Oregon (1 - 1.0000)
- Arizona State (13 - 0.4996) at Penn State (3 - 0.8862) - Winner plays Boise State (10 - 0.6374)
- Alabama (11 - 0.5517) at Notre Dame (4 - 0.8784) - Winner plays SMU (7 - 0.7482)
- Tennessee (9 - 0.6993) at Georgia (5 - 0.8211) - Winner plays Texas (2 - 0.9591)
So we have an all B1G and all SEC set of matchups there, guaranteeing each conference with a Semi-final representative and the possibility of another. However, it's impossible for either conference to get 2 teams into the finals, since all the B1G teams are on the top side and all the SEC teams are on the bottom side. I honestly don't think the committee will allow that to happen. We don't need to see Georgia beat Tennessee again and we don't need to see us humiliate Indiana again.
Given that Tennessee hasn't played Texas and Indiana hasn't played Oregon, and given that the committee has been disrespecting Georgia in their rankings all year, I would honestly expect them to flip Ohio State and Georgia's rankings tonight and put us at 5 and Georgia at 6. Indiana vs Georgia for the right to play Oregon and Tennessee vs Ohio State for the right to play Texas is way more interesting. The rest of the bracket is fine.
Of course, the conference championships haven't yet been played. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC Championship game, there is one fewer spot for an at large. That immediately bumps out Alabama. If Boise State loses to UNLV, Boise State might also be out because they are the next out after Alabama.
The next couple weeks before the playoffs start is going to suck. The next year is also going to suck.
Go Bucks
