Whew. After a nail-biting win on Saturday against Hofstra that was underwhelming, to say the least, Ohio State welcomes Notre Dame to the Shoe on short rest. The Buckeyes eked out a one-goal win last year in South Bend, meaning the Fighting Irish will be coming into town with revenge on their minds.
And it will be yet another close game this time, as the two teams match up pretty similarly across the board.
Offensively, the Irish have a three headed monster who have accounted for 88 of their 171 shots this year through 4 games. That's 51% of the shots for the entire team. Notre Dame is led by senior Bryan Costabile (#26), an All-American middie that Ohio State would trade pretty much anything to add to their roster.
Costabile is who you want directing things up top. He is smart, fast, with great passing skills and a killer shot. Flanking Costabile are junior Wheaton Jackoboice (#55), who is a slick, smooth lefty who will play both attack and midfield, and freshman Pat Kavanagh (#51), the younger brother of Notre Dame legend Matt Kavanagh. Kavanagh is a righty, unlike his brother, who is still getting the hang of college lacrosse, even though he's put up 9 goals and 6 assists in 4 games. The Buckeyes will need to key on all three players, but the focus has to be Costabile.
As a unit, the Notre Dame offense really keys around getting Costabile looks on the dodge, or a quick set of passes for Kavanagh and Jackoboice to send shots on cage. Even with a new coordinator, the offense looks pretty similar to what has always been run in South Bend. Healthy amounts of alley dodges, wing dodges with cutters, and maybe a few inverted looks to change things up.
There isn't anything too fancy about what Notre Dame does, they're just trying to stretch you out with a dodge or dodges, then punish you with fast passing to the backside. What helps them succeed is their mastery of the simple things, but the Irish can stagnate if you stop their initial game plan. It's a tall order, however, and Ohio State will have its hands full trying to contain them.
Defensively, Notre Dame is a little different in scheme, but every bit the tough, physical group that was cultivated by Gerry Byrne for years. There's a bit more variation on the slide locations now, with some more adjacent slides than you used to see, but it still is a smothering defense to go against.
Ryan Wellner of Navy took over after Byrne's departure, and has the D continuing to be excellent in checks, communication, and transition. The Irish recruit incredibly well, and you can see it in the athletes at the pole positions. Ohio State hasn't been able to do the same, and you can see it in some of their matchups.
This game will be won or lost at the attack positions, since Ohio State is almost certainly going to be overrun in midfield. Tre Leclaire has to get open offball, as he will need to gun in at least 4 goals to keep the Buckeyes in this game. Here's hoping he is up to the task.
At faceoff, Notre Dame is poor on the clamp, but will use their wings to really punish Justin Inacio. Notre Dame is similar to Duke in that they'll rely on scheme more than skill to win possession.
Their best FOGO is winning just 47% of his faceoffs this year, so the opportunities will be there for Ohio State to dominate initial possession. It will be up to the offense to make the most of it after Inacio gets his clamps in.
In goal, Notre Dame has replaced junior Matthew Schmidt with a true freshman, Liam Entenmann (#44). Entenmann is a great talent, shoring up a position for Notre Dame that has been a bit up and down of late. Not that Ohio State would have any experience with that.
Entenmann is saving 54% of his shots this year, which is pretty good. Entenmann got absolutely shelled two weeks ago against Maryland, when he faced 60 shots by the Terps. Denver took another 43 shots on Saturday, so the key will be getting a whole lot of shots on target. Entenmann has to be under pressure from start to finish in this game.
On special teams, Notre Dame is about even. They're allowing opponents to convert 37% of their opportunities, while converting 40% of their own.
It shouldn't be the biggest factor, but Ohio State can use every extra goal they can get. The Cornell game was lost because Ohio State couldn't convert any of their 6 chances. Hopefully this game is different. Hopefully.
This Notre Dame team, in my opinion, isn't as strong as teams in the past. It's still got a shaky goalie situation, the offense isn't quite as deadly, and they have no FOGO presence. The schemes are sound, but if Ohio State can win the Costabile matchup with Terefenko or Ben Williams/Jeff Henrick, it could be a long day for Notre Dame away from home.
Or, the Irish D could smother the life out of the attackmen and win yet again. I think the Buckeyes will get it done in a squeaker.
Final prediction: Ohio State 12, Notre Dame 11 OT.
Go Bucks!