I was thinking about our team today the loss to Michigan that still hangs over the program, and how best to put Ohio State in a position to be successful in the playoffs. This thinking intensified as I read Day's comments in the Presser and some of the subsequent posts under that story.
Thinking back to the game, there were obviously a lot of things that didn't make sense. People obviously were frustrated by Day's commitment to the running game, but in reality, the run/pass ratio wasn't any different from any of the big games we have played this year. Against Oregon, we had a near 50/50 split pass/run (35/33). Against Penn St, the ratio was skewed run heavy 24/40, with the running game really picking up steam in the second half. Against Indiana, the ratio was 26/29, once again skewing run. And against Michigan, the ratio was 33/26 - or actually the most favorable pass ratio of any big game this season, yet it obviously didn't feel that way while watching the game. Some of this is due to the style (or lack of variance) of run plays that were called. But I'm less concerned about the ratio of pass/run than the types of pass plays called.
In the Michigan game, we attempted a grand total of two fades, and zero seems. So two deep shots for the game. Both were to Smith in the first half, and both drew DPI calls. Why is it that we never gave either of our elite receivers a chance to go make a play on a deep ball later in the game? Is it because Howard is afraid to attempt those passes, or is it because Day is afraid to call those plays, knowing Howard's lack of arm strength? This seems to be a major issue for us. We haven't pushed the ball downfield much at all, all season, and we are seemingly the only team in the nation that refuses to attempt a back-shoulder fade.
Overall, I like Howard as our Quarterback. I think he can be elite in the short to intermediate throwing game. While his INT's in The Game were infuriating, I also know that everything is made more difficult in sub-freezing weather. It's harder to grip the ball. Harder to be accurate with the ball. And harder to put velocity on the ball when temps are that low. I think in the playoffs, in a dome or a neutral sight game, he could go back to cooking in that range. But my question is, can this team reach its ceiling if it doesn't have a QB who can push the ball downfield?
I know the last time we put it all together, it was because a backup QB had a cannon for an arm, and while he wasn't the greatest QB in the world, that downfield passing attack opened everything else up for that team. Obviously, having an elite deep threat (Devin Smith) was important as well, but teams were put in a blender attempting to figure out how to defend us over those three games. I wonder if something similar couldn't happen now?
While I love Howard, everyone keeps bringing up (in other threads) how next year, our QB situation will likely be improved with Sayin as our QB. But what about now? At this point, Sayin has been in the program for a full year. He should have a grasp of the offense, and we've seen freshmen QB's have success this year and in the past. Giving a freshman his first start in the playoffs is a big ask, but big moves can yield big rewards. If Sayin is legitimately that good, and can actually push the ball downfield to this year's premier deep threat (also aptly named Smith), might he not give us a better chance of winning it all, even if we sacrifice some of the other things Howard obviously does well?
We've seen this move pay off in the past. Cardale winning a title when Barrett likely wouldn't have. Tua winning when Hurts likely wouldn't. Lawrence winning when Bryant couldn't. Am I crazy for thinking this, or could it actually be a possibility?