Saturday's matchup between Ohio State and Connecticut might not carry as much weight on a national level as some thought before the season began.
But that doesn't mean this game isn't important for both teams.
For an Ohio State squad coming off a stunning loss and a UConn side which has stumbled to a .500 start, Saturday night's matchup at Value City Arena is crucial.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut (4-4) | Value City Arena | 6 p.m. | BTN |
The Buckeyes and Huskies both need a win, and both need one in the worst kind of way.
Ohio State enters Saturday's contest fresh off an overtime home loss to Florida Atlantic, a mid-major team which had just one win over a Division I opponent coming into the matchup against the Buckeyes.
The page has been turned, senior forward Marc Loving said, and now it's time for UConn.
“Losing is never OK, but there’s nothing us or anyone can do about it right now," Loving said Friday. "I can’t just dwell on the past or my negative energy is going to feed off to anyone else so we have to move forward at some point and it would be terrible to lose this game as well so there has to be some sense of urgency of wanting to turn it around.”
Opponent Breakdown
This wasn't exactly how Kevin Ollie envisioned his team's 2016-17 season to start.
A top-20 team in the preseason — UConn was ranked 18th in the AP poll at the beginning of the year — expectations for the Huskies this season were rather lofty, as they always are. Those quickly shifted, however, after Connecticut lost back-to-back games to open the season against Wagner and Northeastern.
The Huskies also lost two starters to season-ending injuries as both Terry Larrier (torn ACL) and Alterique Gilbert (torn labrum) have been ruled out for the year. After all of that, UConn sits at just 4-4 heading into Saturday's matchup with Ohio State.
"Even some of those games in Hawaii when they got down, the comebacks they made were tremendous," Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta said. "We’ve got to do a great job of defending all their actions and then know when the shot goes up that the battle just started because they do a great job of offensive rebounding.”
The Huskies are coming off an upset victory against Syracuse, however, as they knocked off the Orange on Monday, 52-50.
Connecticut is ranked No. 80 in Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings. The Huskies are 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.6 points allowed per 100 possessions), but rank just 179th in adjusted offensive efficiency (102.4 points per 100 possessions).
Jalen Adams leads the way for UConn, as the sophomore guard averages a team-high 17.8 points per game. Senior guard Rodney Purvis (12.5 ppg.) is the only other player averaging in double-figures this season for the Huskies with Larrier (13.5 ppg.) and Gilbert (10.3 ppg.) both out for the year.
"Long, athletic, talented," Matta said. "It seems like they play with a great edge. They’re a little bit like us. When they get rolling, they’re really, really good."
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State led by 11 points in the second half against Florida Atlantic and never trailed in the first 4 minutes, 59 seconds of overtime but still found a way to lose Tuesday night. It was, truly, a stunning upset.
“They were the better team that night," Loving said. "They hit some tough shots, but we also beat ourselves in some areas: turnovers, not being able to get a shot out of timeout situations. They were ready to play and we weren’t.”
Loving said the Buckeyes held a team meeting Thursday afternoon in between practices to "clear some air." Ohio State is hopeful that fixed some of the issues that plagued it in the loss to the Owls.
The Buckeyes did see the return of Keita Bates-Diop after the junior forward missed five games with a high ankle sprain. Bates-Diop scored 10 points on 4-of-8 shooting in 20 minutes of action and Matta said Friday he thought Bates-Diop played "OK," but he still wasn't 100 percent on that ankle.
Matta said he anticipates Bates-Diop playing against the Huskies.
But Ohio State is going to need better offensive production all the way around against UConn. The Buckeyes shot just 42 percent from the field in the loss to the Owls.
Ohio State was routed by the Huskies last year in Storrs, and Loving said that was a motivating factor. But the Buckeyes have lost two of three entering Saturday's game so a third loss in four contests is something they're desperately trying to avoid.
“This game is already big enough seeing how we lost last year to UConn," Loving said, "but seeing that we took a loss before we went into this game, we just don’t want to have recurring events that we had last season stringing losses together."
How It Plays Out
Prior to Tuesday's disaster, I felt fairly confident about picking Ohio State in this game. The Huskies looked to be a mess and the two injuries they sustained early in the season really hindered this team.
But now after watching the Buckeyes fall to a poor mid-major opponent, it feels a little more like a toss-up to me.
KenPom still gives Ohio State an 81 percent chance to pick up a victory and predicts a 10-point win for the home team. But the Buckeyes were given a 97 percent chance to beat Florida Atlantic on Tuesday and look what happened.
Still, one would have to hope Ohio State comes out and plays one of its best games of the season and gets a win it so desperately needs.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 68, UConn 62
