It was this time last year when Ohio State won a game that changed what had been a disastrous start to the season.
After early season upset losses to Texas–Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Memphis, the Buckeyes limped into their CBS Sports Classic matchup against No. 4-ranked Kentucky with just a 5-5 record. It was supposed to be an easy victory for the Wildcats against an Ohio State team that clearly was in rebuilding mode.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 UCLA (11-0) | T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nev.) | 3 p.m. ET | CBS |
But the Buckeyes played what was by far their best game of the season that day and stunned Kentucky, 74-67. It launched a turnaround that allowed Ohio State to go from dead in the water to playing for an NCAA tournament berth in March. Of course, the Buckeyes didn't win the games they needed to down the stretch to accomplish that, but they wouldn't have even been in such a position without that December victory against the Wildcats.
Fast-forward a year later and Ohio State is preparing for a return trip to the CBS Sports Classic. This time, the Buckeyes play No. 2-ranked UCLA in Las Vegas on Saturday afternoon. At 8-2, Ohio State is in a much better position this time around, but the Bruins are going to be just as tough to take down as Kentucky was a year ago.
"We’re just going to try to go out there and play the best basketball we can," junior forward Jae'Sean Tate said. "It’s a great opportunity for us to face the No. 2 team and we’re going to take that underdog approach."
Added fellow junior forward Keita Bates-Diop: "That's why we come here to play."
Looking for a statement win, one that can become a launching pad heading into the Big Ten season, Ohio State takes on UCLA on Saturday in Sin City. Let's break it all down.
Opponent Breakdown
If you've been paying attention at all during the early portion of the college basketball season, you're surely well aware of UCLA's hot start. The Bruins are beating big-time opponents and they're doing so by scoring at an incredible rate.
UCLA enters Saturday with a perfect 11-0 record and the Bruins already have wins over Kentucky, Michigan and Texas A&M. They've scored over 100 points five times and have scored at least 97 in eight of their 11 games.
"They are a team where you can’t take plays off," Tate said. "They score the ball at a tremendous rate."
UCLA freshman guard Lonzo Ball (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
It's difficult to slow down UCLA because it is much more than a one-man show, but the head of the snake is freshman point guard Lonzo Ball. One of the best talents in the country, Ball makes the Bruins go and averages 14.8 points, 8.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game.
"He's really good," Matta said, emphatically, of Ball. "Somebody asked me the other day about a comparison to D'Angelo [Russell] and there are some similarities. He can beat you by scoring, he can beat you by passing. As we did with D'Angelo, they move him around to a lot of different spots."
"He does a great job of making that team go."
Ball is hardly out there alone, however, as UCLA has three other players averaging at least 15 points per game and six total who average in double figures.
The leading scorer is freshman forward TJ Leaf, who averages 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. But senior guard Isaac Hamilton (17.3 ppg.), senior guard Bryce Alford (15.5 ppg.), sophomore guard Aaron Holiday (13.9 ppg.) and junior center Thomas Welsch (11.1 ppg., 9.6 rpg.) also contribute heavily for the second-ranked Bruins.
According to KenPom.com, UCLA possesses the third most efficient offense in the country, scoring 121.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bruins have an effective field goal percentage of 64.7 percent and shoot it at a 45.3 percent rate from behind the 3-point line as a team — both numbers are No. 1 in the country. UCLA has scored a total of 301 points in its last three victories.
The Bruins play a wide open style and can be scored on — they rank just 71st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.2 points per 100 possessions — but over a 40-minute game it's quite difficult to keep up with the offensive explosion.
"They’re a very high-powered offensive team," Matta said. "When shots are going in, it’s not just one guy, it’s not two guys, it’s like four guys and sometimes it’s like five guys who can really, really stretch a defense."
"Our defense is definitely going to be tested."
Buckeye Breakdown
After a stunning loss to Florida Atlantic last Tuesday night, Ohio State rebounded by defeating Connecticut on Saturday, 64-60. The Buckeyes got a huge 17-point, 17-rebound performance from backup center Trevor Thompson and they were able to pull away from the Huskies down the stretch despite shooting just 34 percent from the field and 2-for-18 from behind the 3-point line.
Ohio State will have to shoot it much better to keep up with UCLA, but the Buckeyes are also going to need to rely on their defense, which has carried them through the first 10 games of the season.
Currently, Ohio State ranks 24th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 93.5 points per 100 possessions. Teams shoot just 37.9 percent from the field against the Buckeyes, a number that ranks 25th nationally.
"We want to just play our game and try to stop them from what they do well,” Bates-Diop said.
Bates-Diop said he feels close to 100 percent after missing five games with a high ankle sprain. Matta doesn't necessarily believe he's all the way back, but Ohio State hasn't played a game in a week and that's certainly given the junior forward a chance to heal up as best he can.
Kam Williams has struggled a bit as the starter in the last two games with Bates-Diop back in the rotation. The redshirt junior guard who is the Buckeyes' best shooter is just 2-for-19 from the field and 1-of-11 from 3-point range in Ohio State's last two games. For the Buckeyes to have any chance against UCLA, Williams needs to regain his shooting form.
"Kam's a pure shooter," Tate said. "Coach Matta and all of us have seen him make those shots thousands of times. He works so hard and we're going to continue to want him to take those shots and I think he knows that. They'll start falling."
Ohio State will need to play its best game to upset the Bruins.
How It Plays Out
There were high expectations this season for UCLA, but the Bruins have been better than most expected through the first third of the regular season. This is a huge task for the Buckeyes.
UCLA is heavily favored, KenPom gives the Bruins a 69 percent chance to win and predicts a six-point win for the No. 2-ranked team in the country. Ohio State can play with UCLA, but the big question is for how long? The Buckeyes need to sustain a high-level offensive performance over 40 minutes — the Bruins surely will — and that's just not something they've done a ton of this season.
This game could be close in the first half if Ohio State locks in defensively and UCLA misses some shots, but over the course of 40 minutes, it just seems like the Bruins have too much offensive firepower for the Buckeyes to pull off an upset.
Tim's prediction: UCLA 81, Ohio State 72
