How Ohio State Can Secure Double Bye in Big Ten Tournament

For the first time all season, the Buckeyes have dropped consecutive games. And it happens to be a three-game skid. They dropped a 92-87 shootout to No. 2 Michigan, fell 71-67 in controversial fashion to Michigan State, then got torn up by Iowa in a 73-57 defeat. 

"I would just say we've been focusing a lot on getting back to where we were," Kyle Young said on Thursday. "We don't think there's necessarily too much wrong. We just need to focus in more, continue to bring energy every day and continue to be good with our prep leading into these tournaments here."

Because of the late-season struggles, if the season happened to end today, Ohio State would get only one bye in next week's Big Ten tournament as a No. 5 seed, face 12th-seeded Minnesota or 13th-seeded Northwestern in the second round, then take on fourth-seeded Purdue in the quarterfinals. Michigan would likely be waiting in the semifinals if Chris Holtmann's team made it that far.

Starting to see teams locked into their seeds.

Here's how the Big Ten Tournament bracket would look if it started today, with the newly-crowned Champs at the top. pic.twitter.com/pdVYmyaUGq

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 5, 2021

However, with one more game remaining in the Buckeyes' regular season – against No. 4 Illinois on Saturday – and seven total games left to be played in the Big Ten, it's still possible for them to secure a double bye in the conference tournament.

If The Buckeyes beat Illinois...

...then they'd either end up as the No. 3, No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

Whether they'd get a single bye or a double bye – in other words, whether they'd be a top-four seed or not – would be determined by what happens in a couple of the other games on Saturday and Sunday. They might not have their seeding locked in until Sunday afternoon.

Two other games are the ones that affect the Buckeyes: Indiana at Purdue on Saturday and Wisconsin at Iowa on Sunday. Here's what would happen in each scenario.

• Scenario 1: Ohio State beats Illinois, Purdue beats Indiana and Iowa beats Wisconsin
  • The Buckeyes would earn the No. 5 seed and a single bye. If they get past the No. 12 or No. 13 seed in the second round, they would face No. 4 Purdue in the quarterfinals, then possibly No. 1 Michigan in the semifinals.
• Scenario 2: Ohio State beats Illinois, Purdue beats Indiana and Wisconsin beats Iowa
  • The Buckeyes would earn the No. 4 seed and a double bye. They would likely face No. 5 Iowa in the quarterfinals with No. 1 Michigan presumably waiting for the winner in the semifinals.
• Scenario 3: Ohio State beats Illinois, Indiana beats Purdue and Iowa beats Wisconsin
  • The Buckeyes would earn the No. 4 seed and a double bye. They would likely face No. 5 Purdue in the quarterfinals, then could meet No. 1 Michigan in the semifinals.
• Scenario 4: Ohio State beats Illinois, Indiana beat Purdue and Wisconsin beats Iowa
  • The Buckeyes would earn the No. 3 seed and a double bye. They would likely face No. 6 Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, then could meet No. 2 Illinois in the semifinals.

For what it's worth, Scenario No. 1 would be the odds-on favorite of these four to happen. Archie Miller has yet to beat Purdue as Indiana's head coach, and the Hawkeyes will be favored to win at home against a Wisconsin team it beat by 15 points on the road a few weeks ago. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, that's the only scenario in which they win on Saturday and wouldn't secure a double bye.

If The Buckeyes lose to Illinois...

...then they'd be locked into the No. 5 seed and one bye.

The only question at this point would be which team Ohio State would face if it made it past the No. 12 or 13 seed and to the quarterfinals. It would either get Purdue or Iowa, depending on how their games shake out.

This one's a bit simpler. 

• If Iowa beats Wisconsin, regardless of what happens in the Purdue-Indiana game, the Hawkeyes would secure a No. 3 seed with the Boilermakers becoming the No. 4 seed that awaits the No. 5-seeded Buckeyes if they made it to the quarterfinals.
• If Iowa loses to Wisconsin and Purdue loses to Indiana, the seedings would shake out the exact same way. The Hawkeyes would be the No. 3 seed, the Boilermakers would be the No. 4 seed, and the Buckeyes would be the No. 5 seed.
• If Iowa loses to Wisconsin and Purdue beats Indiana, the Boilermakers would jump the Hawkeyes in the standings to secure the No. 3 seed. In this scenario, the fifth-seeded Buckeyes would have to get by fourth-seeded Iowa if they make it to the quarterfinals.

Come Sunday, the Big Ten tournament bracket will be set and we'll know what the Buckeyes' path to a conference championship could look like.