Ohio State's back is against a wall.
In one week since the last edition of Buckeyetology, Ohio State's outlook for the NCAA Tournament went from fantastic to grim. They suffered their worst loss of the season in a humiliating 70-49 defeat at home against Big Ten bottom-feeder Northwestern. They showed some fight through illness but ultimately fell on the road to UCLA, marking a three-game losing streak for the Buckeyes.
Suddenly, Ohio State needs to go on a late-season run to salvage their NCAA Tournament prospects. It's not that there's no hope for Jake Diebler's squad in his first season, but five losses in seven contests have sucked the wind from its sails. And even its Big Ten Tournament standing is on shaky ground.
“We need to do a better job in the rebounding area, which we did after that first segment of the second half,” Diebler said after the loss to the Bruins. “Much better job on the glass. So there's some technical things. We didn't play perfect by any means, but if we play with that toughness and that togetherness and that fight, we're going to win a lot of games down the stretch. There's no question in my mind.”
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Calling Ohio State a bubble team as recently as Thursday morning was a stretch. The Buckeyes were almost unanimously projected as No. 9 or 10 seed for the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are firmly on the teetering edge of the bubble.
| Overall Record | 15-13 |
| Home | 11-5 |
| Road | 3-6 |
| NET Ranking | 34th |
| Q1 Record | 5-9 |
| Q2 Record | 3-4 |
| Strength of Schedule | 15th |
There are still 62 bracket projections aggregated on The Bracket Matrix that have the Buckeyes in the field of 68. Only one of those predictions has Ohio State as higher than a 10-seed and most are in the 11 to 12-seed range if it's in. The big-name bracketologists are divided on OSU's standing.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Ohio State as the last team to receive a bye through the First Four (or the fifth-to-last team in). Meanwhile, CBS' Jerry Palm has the Buckeyes well on the outside looking in, not even including them in his "First Four Out" section. FOX's Mike DeCourcy has the Scarlet and Gray as the first team out of the Big Dance.
Ohio State has a worse overall record than many of its fellow bubble contenders, but as it has all season, the Buckeyes' strength of schedule is keeping them in the hunt. They've still avoided a Quad 3 or 4 loss, as Northwestern's surprisingly high NET ranking of 57th keeps it squarely in Quad 2 territory. OSU's own NET ranking of 34th gives it another boost.
But the Buckeyes need to capitalize on their opportunities to notch a few more quality wins down the stretch of the season. A 3-0 finish to the regular season could secure a bid, with two Quad 1 chances on the road against USC on Wednesday and Indiana on March 8. A Quad 2 home tilt with Nebraska on Tuesday will also be vital.
A loss in any of those three contests probably means work will be required in the Big Ten Tournament for Ohio State. Multiple defeats would make things even more precarious and an 0-3 finish probably eliminates an at-large possibility and would require the Buckeyes to win their conference tournament, but then again, they probably don't get to Indianapolis at all in that scenario. Speaking of which:
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHIGAN STATE | 13-3 | 22-5 |
| 1 | MICHIGAN | 13-3 | 21-6 |
| 3 | WISCONSIN | 12-5 | 22-6 |
| 4 | MARYLAND | 11-5 | 21-6 |
| 5 | UCLA | 11-6 | 20-8 |
| 5 | PURDUE | 11-6 | 19-9 |
| 7 | ILLINOIS | 10-8 | 18-11 |
| 8 | OREGON | 9-8 | 20-8 |
| 9 | INDIANA | 7-9 | 16-11 |
| 10 | NEBRASKA | 7-10 | 17-11 |
| 10 | OHIO STATE | 7-10 | 15-13 |
| 10 | RUTGERS | 7-10 | 14-14 |
| 13 | USC | 6-10 | 14-13 |
| 13 | MINNESOTA | 6-10 | 14-13 |
| 15 | IOWA | 6-11 | 15-13 |
| 15 | NORTHWESTERN | 6-11 | 15-13 |
| 17 | PENN STATE | 5-12 | 15-13 |
| 18 | WASHINGTON | 4-13 | 13-15 |
Big Ten Outlook
As a reminder, only 15 of the Big Ten's 18 teams make the conference tournament in 2025. The Buckeyes' three-game losing streak in conference play has them only one game out of 16th place after Northwestern beat Minnesota on Tuesday.
Iowa, who Ohio State beat in Value City Arena earlier this season, is tied with Northwestern at 15th. With the Wildcats holding a win over the Buckeyes, they are a threat to overtake them in the conference standings. OSU is tied for 10th with Rutgers and Nebraska with a half-game lead over USC and Minnesota in 13th place.
Conversely, Ohio State is still within half a game of a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament, which goes to the conference's top nine teams. Being that the Buckeyes play one of the teams they are tied with, Nebraska, and the team they trail by that half-game, Indiana, a 3-0 close to the campaign probably means a free pass to the second round of the Big Ten Tourney for Diebler and crew.
For any goals set by said head coach and his team entering 2024-25, it's now or never.
