Considering what happened in the second game of the season, it's remarkable the Buckeyes are even in this position.
The "most improved" team Urban Meyer has ever coached – according to the man, himself – sits at No. 6 in this week's College Football Rankings. In order, Ohio State looms behind Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State and TCU. Three of those are guaranteed to play two more games before the playoff, with the SEC West representative yet to be determined. Either Alabama or Mississippi State will play in the SEC Championship Game and one "chaos" scenario could knock them both out of the playoff.
If MSU loses to Ole Miss, Alabama will represent the west, regardless of what happens against Auburn. It will take a Crimson Tide loss in the Iron Bowl and a Bulldog victory in the Egg Bowl for MSU to slide into the SEC title game because Bama controls the head-to-head tiebreaker. If either one loses to Indiana Missouri or Georgia in the championship game, the SEC should get shutout from the playoff picture.
Jeff Long, Arkansas Athletic Director and College Football Playoff Chairman, offered a somewhat confusing defense of Mississippi State's No. 4 ranking during Tuesday's appearance on ESPN.
"They're holding strong where they're located now," Long said. "While they only have, currently ranked, one top 25 win, they do have wins over teams that were previously in the top 25. The committee takes that into account, they view those teams as when they were played and when those games were played."
At one point, Virginia Tech was 2-0 while ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll. Based on Long's logic, the committee can view the Hokies in the context of some arbitrary time in the past – say, right after beating Ohio State. Good news Buckeye fans, your team lost to a Top 25 squad rather a currently unranked, 5-6 disaster!
There's no doubt the narrative is shifting. Former ESPN "BCS guru" turned non-specific college football insider Brad Edwards recently wrote OSU "would be the odds-on favorite to take the fourth spot," should the top seven teams win out.
Another point of contention going in Ohio State's favor involves the Big Ten Championship game. Although a TCU loss to Texas would help, the Buckeyes might catapult the Horned Frogs, regardless of tonight's outcome.
TCU doesn't play in a conference championship game and would be co-Big XII champs with a Baylor team they already lost to. A one-loss Mississippi State might not even get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Ohio State, meanwhile, could meet a top-15 ranked Wisconsin for the B1G Title in Indianapolis.
"Again, we've always said, championships won at the end, on selection weekend, will have an impact," Long said. "It would certainly add to their body of work if they have that Big Ten Championship."
Both OSU and TCU have a win over Minnesota. A Badgers win over the Gophers would help the Buckeyes and damage Horned Frogs' resume with only Texas and Iowa State remaining on their schedule. No. 7 Baylor, in addition to the win over TCU, beat No. 20 Oklahoma and plays No. 12 Kansas State, next week. If they win out, their head-to-head win over TCU should be enough to jump them, but the Bears might not have enough to also leap Ohio State.
With the committee's insistence on winning conference championships, maybe Edwards is right and Ohio State fans shouldn't be worried if everyone wins out.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com's projections, however, OSU has a 42-percent chance of making the playoff, behind TCU but ahead of Mississippi State:
Obviously, Ohio State's chances are contingent on a decent showing against Michigan and a win over the Big Ten West champion – especially if it's Wisconsin. Even then, according to FiveThirtyEight's model, OSU isn't really the "odds-on favorite" as Edwards said.
Only one scenario can guarantee a Buckeye berth – pure chaos: Alabama losing twice – to Auburn and Missouri – Oregon losing to UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, a Florida State loss to Georgia Tech, Mississippi State falling to Ole Miss, TCU losing to Texas tonight, and Baylor dropping their final game against Kansas State.
Anyone else in favor of the ending of the 2007 season on steroids?
