You might not know this, but Ohio State and Nebraska play a relatively significant football game on Saturday night in Columbus.
The No. 6 Buckeyes and No. 10 Cornhuskers are both 7-1 and eagerly searching for any way to stay in the Big Ten race. Doing so will keep whoever wins in contention for a College Football Playoff berth.
We here at Eleven Warriors do our best to provide you with the best #content possible breaking down every game including this one but since it has so much riding on it and Ohio State is playing an opponent it doesn't normally we are going to the bullpen. Below are five questions from us and responses from Erin Sorensen and Brandon Vogel, a reporter and the Managing Editor for the blog Hail Varsity.
These folks know about the Cornhuskers better than anybody, so let's get to it.
11W: Tommy Armstrong Jr. struggled to throw the ball against Wisconsin, which isn't rare for opposing quarterbacks against the Badgers. He appeared to be protecting the ball better this season before that game, however, so which Tommy Armstrong Jr. will Ohio State face on Saturday night? And why does it feel like he's been at Nebraska for 9 years?
BV: Over his last four games, Armstrong has completed just 49 percent of his passes and thrown three touchdowns against six interceptions. Given that teams are currently completing 47 and change against the Buckeyes, the Tommy of late seems like the more likely Tommy we'll see on Saturday. Nebraska could maybe survive with a completion percentage in the low-50s if Armstrong avoided the interceptions and was a little more involved in the run game, all of which would be a reversal of the trend for him in October.
ES: To answer the second question, it feels like Armstrong has been at Nebraska forever because he sort of has been. This is his fifth year at Nebraska and his fourth as a starter. Well, to be technical, he split his time as Nebraska’s quarterback in 2013 with Ron Kellogg behind an injured Taylor Martinez. Regardless, it’s definitely not super common for a program to have a quarterback that has been at the helm for so long.
11W: As an outsider, Nebraska's best wins looks like Oregon, Wyoming or at Northwestern. The Cornhuskers currently lead the Big Ten West and are slotted 10th in the first College Football Playoff rankings despite finishing last year 6-7. Are they for real?
BV: Nebraska is more for real than similarly ranked teams of the Bo Pelini era. I'm comfortable going that far. Nebraska under Mike Riley right now is "solid." Husker fans can feel good about the effort they'll see and Nebraska has generally been in every game it has played under Riley, including some games it didn't want to be in late with the likes of Purdue, Illinois, etc. But that feels like progress from the Pelini-era Big Ten teams, which always felt fragile. Those teams were good until they were bad, and then they were really bad, like a house of cards collapsing. Nebraska fans could never really be sure which team would show up.
That feeling is slowly fading this season, but the Huskers' most notable performance in 2016 is still a close loss on the road to Wisconsin. That's probably the best way to view Nebraska right now: It's a program that still has to hang its hat on a signature loss rather than a win. Until it gets that win, a top-10 ranking with some skepticism is about as real as it can be.
11W: As much as Ohio State fans gripe about their team's passing attack and lack of playmakers at wide receiver, at least the Buckeyes have a player with more than 500 yards receiving. Nebraska's leading receiver is Stanley Morgan Jr., with 329 yards. What is the deal there?
ES: You could probably go back to Brandon’s answer to the first question to address this one. Armstrong is a big reason the receivers don’t have more yards, but I won’t put full blame on the quarterback. Nebraska’s offensive line is pretty beat up right now too and playing with a group that looks quite a bit different than it did at the beginning of the season. You’ve seen Armstrong’s pass completion percentage drop off and a big reason is the offensive line. Beyond that, Armstrong just sometimes makes some poor decisions. He has 45 interceptions in his career, with seven so far this season. Between that and a beat up offensive line, it makes sense why Nebraska’s receivers don’t have more yards.
11W: Nebraska is fourth in total defense and scoring defense in the Big Ten and leads the conference with 15 interceptions. On the contrary, the Cornhuskers are ranked ninth in the Big Ten in passing defense, allowing 205.4 yards per game. What gives?
BV: This is not a shutdown pass defense—check out the 58.6-percent completion rate, too—but one built to address the Huskers' biggest weakness from 2015. That was a solid defensive unit a year ago, particularly against the run, that couldn't defend the deep ball. Teams hit for 60 passes of 20-plus yards, which ranked 125th nationally.
This year Nebraska has given up just 18 of those plays through eight games, ninth nationally, and the tradeoff is the Huskers are willing to give up some completions underneath to avoid getting beat deep. It has worked so far because Nebraska has been good on third down (23rd nationally) and good on its half of the field (14th in points per trip inside the 40 allowed). Maybe "farm strong" is the best way to describe this unit. It doesn't have the muscles of an Alabama, Florida or Ohio State, for example, where the talent and high level of play is apparent to anyone watching. But the Huskers' defense has been deceptively strong when it comes time to test it, like the potbellied farmer who throws hay bales around all day. That's probably better than anyone thought it would be entering the season.
11W: Having watched how Nebraska played at Wisconsin and the rest of its games this season, what kind of chances do you give the Cornhuskers coming into Ohio Stadium and pulling the upset?
BV: I'd put the Huskers at about 7/2 for an outright win, so a win probability a little north of 20 percent.
ES: I’m pretty on the fence about this game. I predicted an Ohio State win but I don’t think Nebraska will go down without a fight. I’d give the Huskers more of a 35-40 percent chance of winning (optimism!) but it’s going to take near perfection for them to get out of Columbus with the win.
