Dabo Swinney isn't going to be able to avoid the questions about his team's tendency to give the ball away when he sits in front of television cameras to talk about Clemson's upcoming matchup against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. They have already started.
A reporter asked the head coach after the Tigers beat Virginia Tech to claim the ACC Championship, sometimes this year Clemson built big leads only to see them vaporize because it kept turning the ball over. That let teams make things interesting and against Pittsburgh, helped cost the Tigers a game. The Panthers won the turnover margin by two that day, fueled by forcing three interceptions to pull the upset 43-42.
“I think 'let' is a big word,” Swinney said. “The other team has good players, too, and good coaches. Sometimes the other team makes some plays.”
| OPPONENT | TO GAINED | TO LOST | MARGIN | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ AUBURN | 3 | 2 | +1 | W, 19-13 |
| TROY | 3 | 3 | 0 | W, 30-24 |
| S. CAROLINA ST. | 2 | 0 | +2 | W, 59-0 |
| @ GEORGIA TECH | 1 | 1 | 0 | W, 26-7 |
| NO. 3 LOUISVILLE | 3 | 5 | -2 | W, 42-36 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | 2 | 1 | +1 | W, 56-10 |
| N. CAROLINA ST. | 2 | 4 | -2 | W, 24-17 |
| @ NO. 12 FLORIDA ST. | 1 | 2 | -1 | W, 37-34 |
| SYRACUSE | 3 | 0 | +3 | W, 54-0 |
| PITTSBURGH | 1 | 3 | -2 | L, 43-42 |
| @ WAKE FOREST | 0 | 1 | -1 | W, 35-13 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | 1 | 1 | 0 | W, 56-7 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | 2 | 1 | 1 | W, 42-35 |
That is a fair assessment from Swinney but Clemson's turnover statistics cannot be denied. The Tigers have given the ball to the other team the exact same number of times they have taken it away—24. The 24 turnovers are tied for eighth-most among FBS programs in 2016 and easily the most by a team set to play in a New Year's Six bowl game. Next closest is Alabama, who has 19.
The Tigers are 12-1, so they have done plenty of things right this season. It helps to have one of the best players in the country, quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson, calling the shots and orchestrating things offensively. But not even he is immune to the turnover bug that keeps biting Clemson.
Watson has 15 interceptions through 13 games this season, two more than in 2015 when he played in 15 games. He only has four games this year where he didn't throw a pick and the Tigers dominated in all of them. The Tigers thumped FCS South Carolina State 59-0, thrashed Boston College on the road 56-10, swiftly took care of Syracuse 54-0 and won at Wake Forest 35-13.
Virginia Tech intercepted Watson once in the conference championship game but the Tigers won the turnover margin against the Hokies, picking off Jerod Evans twice. Virginia Tech made it close late in the game, however, cutting Clemson's lead to one score with only 5:43 left. Turnovers shift momentum in any game and for the most part, Clemson has still been able to come out with more points than the other team once the game ends.
“I think the big thing for us this year, with [the ACC Championship] really being the one different game, when we won that margin, we haven't really been in close games,” Swinney said. “[Against the Hokies] we won the margin and it was still a close game. That's a credit to Virginia Tech. They're champions, too. It's not about just, We just let them back in. We had big leads. But those guys fought back.”
He isn't wrong. The four times this season the Tigers lost the turnover margin—thus, turned the ball over more times than took it away—they only won one of them by more than one possession. That was when they beat Wake Forest by 22 points. The Demon Deacons didn't turn it over while Clemson lost one fumble.
The other three:
- No. 22 Pittsburgh's last-second, 43-42 upset in Death Valley (Clemson -2 in turnover margin);
- The Tigers' 42-36 victory over Heisman Trophy favorite Lamar Jackson and No. 5 Louisville (-2);
- A 24-17 escape act against now 6-6 North Carolina State at home (-2); and
- A solid 37-34 win at No. 12 Florida State (-1).
To compare, Ohio State only lost the turnover battle once in 2016. Ironically, it came against one of the worst teams on its schedule, Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights finished +1 in turnover margin Oct. 1 in Columbus. They finished -58 on the scoreboard.
The Tigers are ridiculously talented offensively, ranked second in the ACC and 13th nationally in yards per game with 505.7 but also love to make things difficult on themselves. And it is hard to blow teams out consistently in college football, regardless of your personnel. Just ask Ohio State last season when 12 NFL Draft picks roamed the sidelines in Columbus.
“I don't think that we were complacent or anything like that, but those guys made some plays, some well-designed plays,” Swinney said of the Virginia Tech game. “They played with a lot of fight and heart and they worked their way back into it. At the end of the day, we finished it off.”
Malik Hooker leads the best defense in the country at turning interceptions into points.
Winning is winning regardless the deficit, particularly in the postseason when teams face the best of their respective sport. The College Football Playoff is designed to give the four best teams a chance to compete for a national championship. Clemson did enough to earn that opportunity but its penchant for giving teams chance after chance to beat it could prove fatal. Especially against Ohio State—one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers.
The Buckeyes have 25 takeaways through 12 games this season, second only to Wisconsin (27) in the Big Ten and tied for 10th-most in the country. Nineteen of those turnovers came via interceptions and we all know how terrific Ohio State is at returning those for touchdowns. The seven pick-sixes are most in the country, leading second place Alabama by two.
So in a game where Clemson clearly has more firepower than Ohio State when it comes to the passing game, and while Watson is an exceptional talent, how well both teams protect the football will go a long way to deciding who wins on New Year's Eve.
“We just want to find a way to win at this point forward,” Swinney said. “It's not about anything but having one more point than the opponent.”
Sound familiar?
