Ohio State's 39-38 comeback win over Penn State may have put it back in the playoff picture, just in time for the first set of rankings to come on Tuesday.
The situation resembles what happened last year when then No. 2 Ohio State lost on the road to Penn State. The Buckeyes eventually clawed their way into the playoff last year but could not make the Big Ten Championship Game before it. Given how the Big Ten fared in its bowl schedule last year, the probability of Ohio State making the playoff if Penn State shut it off from the Big Ten East division championship was effectively zero.
This year, it's Penn State that's now on the outside looking into the playoff while Ohio State may have vaulted back into the field of four. It seems likely Ohio State would have secured its spot if it wins out while Penn State is now hoping for two more losses on Ohio State's schedule to return to the Big Ten Championship Game with the goal of securing a playoff berth.
Importantly, Ohio State's comeback win came with other developments on Saturday. Importantly, TCU finally had a bad game and dropped a 14-7 road decision to a surging Iowa State program.
It's not clear if this loss is necessarily "worse" than Ohio State's home loss to Oklahoma, but there's a clear recency bias in rankings. Selectors and voters weight recent losses more heavily, which will help Ohio State jump TCU and keep ahead of an Oklahoma team that shares that mutual loss to Iowa State.
| Rank | Team | Result on Saturday |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama (8-0) | BYE |
| 2 | Georgia (8-0) | def. Florida (42-7) |
| 3 | Wisconsin (8-0) | def. Illinois (24-10) |
| 4 | Ohio State (7-1) | def. Penn State (39-38) |
| 5 | Clemson (7-1) | def. Georgia Tech (24-10) |
| 6 | Penn State (7-1) | lost to Ohio State (39-38) |
Further, other viable teams that won on Saturday are unlikely to jump Ohio State at this rate. The jury is still out on an undefeated Wisconsin team, which does seem poised for a playoff spot right now after how Saturday unfolded. Wisconsin keeps winning, but it also keeps playing bad teams. Even if Wisconsin leapfrogs Ohio State, that's unlikely to affect the Buckeyes' status as a top four team after Saturday.
Miami is also undefeated but is more lucky than great. There's something to be said about the importance of luck but Miami's path to the playoff would require wins over Virginia Tech and, likely, Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Those seem like tall odds.
Clemson is a viable playoff contender as well. The Tigers lost before its bye last week and rebounded with a comfortable, if uninspiring, 24-10 win over Georgia Tech on Saturday night. Clemson seems poised to pounce on movement down the rankings for teams like Alabama or Georgia, two teams that will invariably have to play each other at this rate. All the same, expect the Buckeyes to keep in front of Clemson when the first rankings come out Tuesday.
Ohio State still has a long way to go. The Buckeyes will conclude with 5-3 Iowa, 6-2 Michigan State, 2-6 Illinois, and 6-2 Michigan. Though they'll be favored in all contests at this rate, only Illinois stands out as a certain victory. This would all precede a potential Big Ten Championship Game berth against, in all likelihood, an undefeated and deceptively great Wisconsin team.
That said, the Buckeyes are back in the saddle for a playoff berth despite the grisly home loss to Oklahoma. The comeback win comes just in time for the first set of playoff rankings this Tuesday. It makes Saturday night's celebration that much better.
