In a sure sign football season is just over the horizon, I'm back to take my annual stab at five bold predictions for Ohio State's upcoming campaign.
Over the years I've admittedly boasted an unimpressive accuracy rate with these bad boys but at the same time, I take pride in avoiding the obvious calls like, "hey, I bet Ohio State beats Michigan" or "Jack Sawyer's going to play as a freshman."
This year seems like more of a crapshoot than most, especially coming off a pandemic-shortened 2020 season, as Ohio State has to break in a new quarterback in place of Justin Fields, replace a ton of linebacker production and figure out how to stop the pass, among other notables.
But enough of the possible excuses. Let's get to my five bold predictions for Ohio State's 2021 season.
JEREMY RUCKERT BECOMES OHIO STATE'S FIRST TIGHT END SINCE 2003 TO RECORD AT LEAST 30 RECEPTIONS
Yeah, I know Ryan Day talked at media day about wanting to get Ruckert at least this many catches but how many times over the last 20 years have we heard similar talk only to see the tight ends block their asses off 99.9% of the snaps?
Over the last 17 years, only Marcus Baugh (28 in 2017) and Jeff Heuerman (26 in 2013) have come anywhere close to 30 catches so it would indeed be meaningful for Ruckert to turn the trick.
Ruckert had just 13 catches for 151 yards during last season's eight-game slate. If he played 15 games – the fullest season possible – he was on track for 24 grabs. That said, he played the second-most snaps at tight end behind Luke Farrell, and Luke's no longer in the fold.
This year, he should see a ton of snaps considering his skill-set and the fact Ohio State is thin on experience at his position.
Throw in the new starting quarterback factor and I think things could set up well for Ruckert to snag at least 30 balls this fall.
OHIO STATE AVERAGES AT LEAST SIX YARDS PER CARRY FOR SECOND TIME IN SCHOOL HISTORY
This one feels like I'm flirting with danger considering the team's leading returning rusher, Master Teague, averaged only 4.9 yards per carry last season on 104 attempts.
But there are a few factors I'm hanging my hat on. First, I think the offensive line has a chance to be special. Whether Day and Greg Studrawa follow through on the talk of sliding Thayer Munford inside giving the squad a look of Nicholas Petit-Frere, Munford, Harry Miller, Paris Johnson Jr. and Dawand Jones from left to right, or if they keep Munford and NPF at the tackles, Johnson at right guard, Miller at center and decide on a left guard, this line is going to be badass.
Running lanes should be wide and plentiful for whichever dudes Day calls on to run the football.
I also like the fact soon-to-be-announced starting quarterback C.J. Stroud should be a factor ensuring the most successful decision is made at the line of scrimmage within the RPO game. And it won't hurt to have Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and others threatening defenses over the top. I imagine some teams will stack the box early in the season and dare Stroud to beat them deep and once he proves that will happen on the reg, running lanes will be there.
Finally, I'm bullish on Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson emerging over the course of the season to be the 1-2 punch at tailback and I think both can be consistent runners with home run ability. I'm not saying Teague won't contribute either.
Bottom line, throwing all this in a stew and I like Ohio State's chances to have an elite run game.
AT LEAST FOUR DEFENSIVE ENDS WILL RECORD AT LEAST FOUR SACKS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN RECORDED SCHOOL HISTORY
Maybe on the surface you think four sacks from defensive ends isn't all that much. And for a singular stud defensive end logging tons of snaps, that'd be a fair thought.
The reality is, as far as I can tell from scanning Ohio State's season stats dating back to 1981 when sacks were first tracked, no Buckeye defense has had more than three defensive ends posting at least four sacks in a single season.
The 2017 and 2015 squads had three defensive ends post at least four, as did the 1995 unit, but other than that, I couldn't find more than two guys reaching the benchmark in any other season.
For Ohio State to make history, at least four defensive ends out of Zach Harrison, Tyreke Smith, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau would need to reach that four-sack milestone.
A healthy Harrison feels like a lock to reach that figure based on what we've seen and heard from Day and others this spring and fall. The other guys have the talent, and assuming Larry Johnson leans on a rotation to keep guys fresh and employs a Rushmen package getting at least three of those guys on the field in certain situations, I'm thinking it's entirely possible all five of those guys could make a run at four sacks.
PASS DEFENSE IMPROVES BY AT LEAST 75 YARDS PER GAME
Of all the units on the team, I'm still most concerned about the secondary. Last year, Ohio State surrendered 304 passing yards per contest, good for No. 122 nationally out of 127 teams.
Numerous factors played into the group's historic struggles, highlighted by a significant lack of reps for players in dire need of seasoning and the team's most gifted cover guy, Shaun Wade, having a tough season after moving from the slot to the No. 1 corner spot.
The result was a dumpster fire as Michael Penix Jr., Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones all torched the Buckeyes for more than 400 passing yards.
This year, Wade is gone but there's been more time for Coombs and company to polish the scheme and for players to gain reps. As such, I've got the 2021 pass defense giving up no worse than 229 pass yards per game – a minimum 75 yards per game improvement over last season.
On one hand, you might argue this isn't bold because there's no way this group can perform worse than last year. On the other, most of the guys who contributed to last year's issues are the same guys Coombs will be counting on this year to make major leaps.
I struggle with thinking this group could shave off 105 yards per game and join the 2015, 2015, 2017 and 2019 defenses, which all gave up less than 200 passing yards per contest. That said, improvement will be felt thanks to continued improvements from guys like Sevyn Banks and Josh Proctor along with dudes like Lathan Ransom and maybe a guy like Denzel Burke stepping into meaningful roles.
If the Buckeyes do fall into the 229-yard range, that would likely only be good for a top-60 ranking but would still represent a jump of about 60 spots from last year.
OHIO STATE WINS THE BIG TEN, REACHES THE CFP TITLE GAME AND FALLS TO ALABAMA AGAIN
Honestly not sure if this is bold or not but what is a season prediction piece without a thought on how it plays out?
I'm confident Stroud is going to prove an above average performer, at minimum, especially with the talent around him. With an offense likely to average 40+ points per game, it feels like the season will mostly come down to whether or not the back end of Ohio State's defense can make drastic improvement over 2020.
As noted, I do think the pass defense will be much better but I can't predict it being elite and even at linebacker, while there's a ton of talent, unproven guys will be counted on to make gigantic leaps. The defensive line should be great enough to help mask some of the back seven's potential shortcomings and easily coast through the Big Ten.
From there, I'll take Ohio State to knock off a Clemson or Oklahoma in a CFP semifinal before falling – in a tight game – to Alabama in a national championship rematch.
So, there you go. I'm sure you'll tell me where you think I'm an idiot and by all means please do. But besides that, offer up your own predictions in the comments and we'll revisit our collective #takes sometime early next year.
