Looking to build on its 2-0 record, No. 3 Ohio State takes the field tomorrow night versus in-state Toledo for a primetime tilt in Ohio Stadium
The heavily-favored Buckeyes have this one final non-conference tuneup before Big Ten West foe Wisconsin visits the Shoe next Saturday.
Will Denzel Burke turn in a better performance within Ohio State's secondary? Can Ohio State's defense take another step forward against a dual-threat quarterback? Will the Buckeyes rushing attack springboard into the conference slate?
For answers to these queries and more, I welcome fellow 11W staffers Chase Brown, Garrick Hodge and Andy Vance to this week's roundtable.
Ohio State averaged a solid 6.5 yards per carry against Arkansas State after going for 4.9 against what I maybe wrongly assumed was a solid Notre Dame defense. Any concerns with the running game at this point? OSU saw a dozen of its 26 carries go for three yards or less versus the Red Wolves with five going for negative yardage. Will the Buckeyes be able to run the ball consistently against good teams? Why or why not?
Chase: I've never really liked the statistic of yards per carry. Yes, it is a needed metric. However, I don't think it tells the full story of how well a running back produces each time they tote the rock. For example, TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 87 yards on 10 carries against Arkansas State, but almost half of that yardage came on one attempt. With that being said, Henderson didn't do much with the other carries, and I don't know what to make of it.
Right now, I'm not sounding any alarms about Ohio State's rushing attack. I think Henderson and Miyan Williams can produce at a high level, and we will see that for most of this season. If the run game doesn't look good against Wisconsin next week or against Michigan State in a few weeks then I might be legitimately concerned.
Garrick: I think it's too early to tell on that front right now. But I'm not overly concerned. Right tackle Dawand Jones is an excellent run blocker, and left tackle Paris Johnson is projected by many to be a first-round NFL Draft pick next spring, so there's no reason why OSU should have problems getting hard-earned yards when they need it later in the season. Plus, TreVeyon Henderson is bound to break out sooner or later.
Andy: I'm not concerned yet because I think we’ve seen a very limited set of plays and concepts yet, and looking back at the Notre Dame game it felt like Day was using the rushing attack as a “break in case of emergency” option rather than trying to simply cram the ball down Notre Dame’s throat. Given the film we have on TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams over the past two seasons, I actually feel pretty confident that the two of them can go out and win a ballgame for the Buckeyes if need be. You can make the argument, in fact, that they did just that in the season opener.
These first two games feel to me like Ryan Day trying to establish the bona fides of his passing game given the departure of all that first-round receiver talent to the NFL. And with the emergence of Marvin "Route Man Marv” Harrison Jr., and to a lesser extent of Emeka Egbuka, I think he’s gone a long way toward accomplishing that goal. So as the ball carriers get more touches in the weeks ahead, I feel pretty confident my “Seven Yards and a Cloud of Dust” t-shirt will be perfectly appropriate attire.
Through a small two-game sample size, Ohio State’s pass defense slots No. 70 in the country in yards per attempt (6.7) and No. 52 in passing yards per game allowed (200). Denzel Burke had a rough game versus ASU but the safeties have looked pretty good, I think. What’s your early assessment of Ohio State’s secondary play?
Andy: The defensive secondary is my only hesitation about enthusiastically declaring that the Silver Bullets are in fact back. Burke had a rough game, but Champ Flemings was a tough assignment to cover, too, so given that often times last season Burke was the only guy on the field who seemed to know what he was doing, I’m willing to give him a mulligan. I’m also wondering if the secondary seems like they’ve been tested a bunch because Ohio State’s opponents have quickly discovered that it’s damn-near impossible to run against this defense. Arkansas State managed just 53 yards on the ground, and we know that when teams fall behind they’re forced to throw more, so maybe it is just a sample size thing.
I’m not hitting the panic button yet, primarily because there are damn few quarterbacks in the Big Ten who give me any qualms about them picking apart this defense when it fully hits its stride.
Chase: I think Ohio State's secondary has looked good in the first two weeks. The yards per attempt –like the yards per carry statistic – is another one of those things that can be skewed by a few plays. Outside of the misstep from Josh Proctor against Notre Dame allowing Lorenzo Styles Jr. to make that huge catch and a few bad reps from Denzel Burke last weekend, I think the Buckeyes have been solid at keeping opposing quarterbacks and receivers from burning them. I've liked what I've seen so far.
Garrick: Burke certainly hasn't looked like himself through the first two games, but I'm betting he rebounds sooner rather than later. Cameron Brown has been solid in my estimation, and safety looks like it will go game-by-game with Lathan Ransom seeing the majority of the snaps Week 1 and Josh Proctor taking his turn Week 2, with experienced Jim Knowles veteran Tanner McCalister and Ronnie Hickman being other constants in the three-safety defense. Even though Knowles hates the term "bend but don't break," I think the secondary has looked solid so far this year, and hasn't allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters of football.
Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn is a dual-threat guy with six touchdowns over his first two games albeit against trash competition. Any concerns he gets loose and gives Ohio State trouble for a little while? Why or why not?
Garrick: There's always a chance if Burke continues to struggle or another secondary player has a poor showing, but you'd think OSU should be able to contain him efficiently enough. In the run game, the way defensive tackle Mike Hall and linebacker Tommy Eichenberg are playing, you'd be shocked to see Toledo run well, but that's why they play the game.
Andy: No concern here whatsoever. Ohio State’s defensive front has spent so much time in the backfield these first two games that opposing offenses ought to start charging them rent. It’s not so much the sacks yet, it’s the tackles for loss that has me confident here: if opposing offenses can’t run the ball against this team with their primary ball carriers, I’m not worried about a quarterback suddenly running hog wild. He’s not Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett or Justin Fields, and that’s the kind of dual-threat I think it would take to see meaningful rushing yards from a quarterback against this front.
Chase: Dequan Finn is a talented quarterback that will make a few plays here and there against the Buckeyes. However, I think Ohio State will benefit tremendously from having to create a game plan for two dual-threat quarterbacks in Week 1 and Week 2 with Tyler Buchner and James Blackman. Jim Knowles will have this defense locked and loaded for their third straight matchup with an opponent that has a signal-caller who can throw it and run it.
Seven teams ranked in the top-25 last weekend lost, with many losing to unranked teams. Is this season going to take on a 2007-feel or was last weekend an isolated chaos event? If you think the former, what’s driving it?
Chase: I think we will take a step back from the chaos in the coming weeks of college football. Do I want that to happen? No. Do I think it will happen? Yes. There will be a few upsets here and there throughout the season because there always are and always will be. However, I think the absolutely insane Week 2 that saw several programs fall to teams they were supposed to crush was an isolated event.
Garrick: I don't think we're at 2007 vibes quite yet, though Kansas is undefeated! But I do think we're seeing more parity in college football as a result of the transfer portal and immediate eligibility. Former Ohio State linebacker Dallas Gant starting at Toledo is a great example of that. Players that could contribute in some way at legit Power Five schools are now starting at Group of Five programs. That makes the talent dropoff less steep than normal, plus gives lesser programs former highly-touted recruits that already have college football experience.
Andy: I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to how much we can read into last week. If you look at some of the losses you can pretty easily find the explanation… Take Texas A&M for example, and you realize that Jimbo Fisher is a mediocre coach who has gotten very rich based on one exceptional quarterback, and has done a pretty poor job of recruiting and developing quarterbacks since. Notre Dame was apparently the most overhyped team in the country in the preseason, and they’re simply nowhere near as good as we all thought they were. So I’m not so sure this is a chaos season as it is a season where some traditional brands were overvalued to start with.
The one thing I think is worth watching, however (and not just this season), is how the diffusion of talent via the transfer portal allows teams like Marshall, Appalachian State, and even Arkansas State to punch above their weight against Power Five teams in the coming years. I think that’s very much a storyline worth paying attention to as time marches on, because that could be part of the story with regard to upsets like we saw last week.
Ohio State is a lofty 32-point favorite over the Rockets on Saturday night. Is that too large a spread? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Andy: I certainly like 32 points a lot better than I did 44 points, that’s for sure, but Toledo’s scoring ability scared me off of predicting the cover. I have Ohio State winning this one 45-14, and I expect Tommy Eichenberger to be the MVP as he continues to wreak havoc in the backfield and makes Dequan Finn’s visit to Columbus a miserable Friday night on national television.
Chase: I thought 32 points was too much in favor of the Buckeyes and picked Ohio State to win this one by 28 at 45-17. Toledo is a well-coached program with plenty of talented players. Last season, the Rockets lost several close games, including a nailbiter to Notre Dame in South Bend, and finished with only seven wins. Turn a few of those narrow losses into victories and we could have easily seen a 10-win team from the Glass City.
Ohio State will beat Toledo handily, but don't be surprised if the Rockets last a few rounds and keep the game close until halftime. My MVP for the game will be C.J. Stroud. With a fully-healthy receiver room, I think it's time that Stroud returns to the forefront of people's minds as one of the best players in college football as he spreads the wealth around to the multitude of talent the Buckeyes have running around on the outside.
Garrick: I think it'll be pretty similar to last week. I'll say 45-13 is the final, which would mean OSU pushes. I'll go with TreVeyon Henderson as MVP as he goes for 165 yards and two touchdowns and installs confidence in the Buckeyes' running game in Week 3.
