What a time to be a gambler in the Buckeye State!
My history with this creature called "sports betting" could write a book stranger than fiction someday. That doesn't even count my Art-ful scrape with the guy that threw 46 unlucky interceptions at Ohio State.
I grew up grasping the activity with the same resentment that my father instilled in me to hold toward motorcycles. I'll at least never put money down on a big boy electric two-wheeler for the rest of my life. Fast forward to the start of 2023, I evolved into a sports betting content producer with USA Today as my top client — just as a world of opportunity opened up for Ohio State fans seeking to get comfortable at the books.
Supporters in-state tragically missed out on any CFP live betting opportunities against Georgia on New Year's Eve. But now, Ohioans will have a whole season of moneylines, over/unders, player props, and futures to consider while Buckeye fans prepare for another annual trip around the autumn sun.
In the interest of aiding the Ohio betting public in the infancy of its exposure to a complete slate of Buckeye football, Eleven Warriors will break down each game this season on Friday afternoon from an odds perspective. The goal will be to give OSU fans and curious sports bettors across Columbus, Ohio and beyond a sharp examination of the most popular betting trends that have taken shape throughout the week prior to kickoff.
For those bold enough, there may even be some money to be made off the knowledge shared here. Just keep in mind, this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, play at YOUR OWN RISK, and LEAVE the 11W staff IN PEACE if ANY of this FOOTBALL GAME CONJECTURE proves incorrect.
Did that disclaimer shake your confidence? Then you just might be cut out for this. Play responsibly, and let's take a look at the upcoming Buckeye football season:
Team and Heisman futures courtesy of Action Network Consensus, player props courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Win Total Bet — Over 10.5 Wins (-110)
Photo: Ryan Day
If you are a fan of this team over at least the last decade, you understand why this line feels somewhat inappropriate in contrast to the standard of excellence this program demands.
Going back to 2002, Ohio State has failed to hit a regular-season win total of 11 only six times across the last 17 seasons. One of those instances included a year that saw only eight games take place on the Buckeyes' schedule. Another was Luke Fickell's lone season as OSU head coach.
While doomsday oracles may point with caution toward the ongoing quarterback battle between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, by now Ryan Day should have the respect of Ohio State loyalists concerning the development of field generals.
Ryan Day has cleared a hurdle of at least 11 wins in two of his three full seasons as head coach, excluding the eight-game 2020 season played during a pandemic. He additionally chipped in three victories for an 11-win regular season in 2018 during Urban Meyer's swan song.
Beyond any quarterback uncertainty lingering into October, most of the risk here comes with the results in the Notre Dame and Michigan games. Day and company would need to win out otherwise to clear a total of 11, but wins in South Bend and up north would afford the Buckeyes some rope to cash this bet should tragedy strike elsewhere in the form of an upset.
No reason to fear a road trip to Purdue, right? Hit that over harder than the World's Largest Drum.
Best Player Props: Over, Under and the Wild Card
Photo: Emeka Egbuka
Truthfully, when it comes to player props, I prefer to keep it on a game-by-game basis rather than invest in futures.
Many of these overs sound great at the end of August or dawn of September, but even a sole week-long injury can derail the entire campaign from a betting perspective. Of course, the other side of that risk swings dramatically in the favor of under bettors that held a contrary stance at the outset of the season.
So let's apply a theme of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly to these player prop lines and see if we can't find some value on an individual basis.
Over: Emeka Egbuka 8.5 Receiving TDs (-140)
Leading with the best option of the bunch. In every non-plague-stricken season during Day's tenure as head coach at Ohio State, the second-highest producing receiver in the Buckeye offense has caught at least 10 touchdown passes.
Terry McLaurin made 11 visits to paydirt on just 35 receptions behind Parris Campbell's total of 12 in 2018. The following season, K.J. Hill brought in 10 TDs behind Chris Olave's tally at 12 scores.
In 2021, both Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up at least nine touchdown catches apiece, while Olave still led the unit with 13 of his own. Last season, Emeka Egbuka achieved a double-digit touchdown total in spite of his acclaimed teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. — more on him later — hauling in a whopping sum of 14 scoring snags.
Egbuka and recent program history have proven these standards are more than within reach for a player of such caliber awarded such a consistent opportunity to succeed. Barring injury or a Xavier Johnson metamorphosis into a Biletnikoff candidate, Columbus' returning slot cat should find at least nine more lives in the endzone this season.
Under: TreVeyon Henderson 10.5 Rushing TDs (-125)
When betting lines for futures opened last season and anointed TreVeyon Henderson as the preseason favorite to lead college football in rushing touchdowns, Dan Hope and I had a hearty laugh.
That's because Ohio State hasn't had a running back lead the field in that category since Eddie George scored 24 times on the ground in 1995. The Buckeyes also haven't had a halfback finish with the highest rushing yard total in the sport since Keith Byars posted 1,764 yards over a decade earlier in 1984.
Henderson's burst onto the scene from his freshman year in which he scored 15 rushing touchdowns has clearly left an impact on the memory of the bookies. That comes in spite of the fact that he not only followed up with a total of just six across eight injury-riddled games in 2022, but also nearly saw Dallan Hayden eclipse him with five of his own scores towards the end of the schedule.
Most significant of all, however, will be the presumed goal line responsibilities that continue to rest with Miyan Williams. The muscle hamster scored five more times on the ground last season than all other running backs combined that played at least 10 games. The greatest rushing threat the team has in the red zone will find himself called upon now more than ever as Day gets his quarterback accustomed to a starting role.
Even if the injury bug should strike this backfield once again as it did often last season, Hayden's newfound experience paired with the return of Evan Pryor, a surging Chip Trayanum and dynamic ability of Xavier Johnson all add up to a crowded backfield. This is an offense that provides plenty of touches to its artists in open space with the ball in their hands, but the scoring stays concentrated to the most reliable talent in their roles.
A double-digit touchdown total for Henderson remains far from out of the question given his skills as a receiver. Unfortunately, expecting him to hit that number off of ground touches alone seems unrealistic, given the other forces in play.
Wild Card: J.J. McCarthy, Under 2600.5 Passing Yards (-115)
There aren't any Ohio State quarterback futures available yet, because the head coach won't name a starter! Thus, in an effort to promote a more fun fade than taking a short position in a Buckeye, consider instead investing toward the expectation of another attrition-style offense under the fearless leadership of Jim Harbaugh.
J.J. McCarthy easily has the talent to clear 2,600 passing yards. He did it last year! But he also needed 14 games and a late-season transformation of the Michigan offense — catalyzed by an injury to its star player — in order to get over the finish line. Three of McCarthy's four most prolific passing yard totals arrived in the final games of the Wolverines' season, as their starting quarterback had achieved less than 2,000 yards through the air prior to his team visiting Columbus.
McCarthy also only posted a pair of 300-yard outings across Michigan's schedule last season, including the blistering College Football Playoff semifinal against TCU. He attempted north of 30 passes only one time beyond the games in which he broke the 300 yard barrier. He also offers much more of an elusive scrambling threat than his 70 carries a season ago would indicate.
As the Wolverines sit comfortably near the top of the AP Poll to open the year, Harbaugh likely follows his usual script of bulldozing the immediate competition while not revealing too many of his cards available to play in Ann Arbor. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will give the khaki commando as much ground support as he needs to keep the grand scheme of the TTUN offensive under wraps for as long as possible.
In truth, this bet probably comes down to the result of The Game. If Ohio State keeps McCarthy out of the Big Ten Championship Game, it gives the Wolverines one less postseason opportunity to unleash their entire playbook.
Best Heisman Trophy Future — Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2000)
Photo: Marvin Harrison Jr.
There hardly ever exists a method to the madness of picking a Heisman future, unless you are the type that enjoys proclaiming one of the greatest symbols of individual achievement across all sports that has become a pyre of quarterback tribute.
My approach to sports betting prioritizes certainty of results over value on price, which means taking a Heisman future in August will find my wallet clinging steadfast to my thigh out of pure fear until December. Perhaps a book will allow my fellow terrified degenerates to live bet the ceremony some day.
However, there's a particularly compelling case for an Ohio State superstar to make a run for the award this season. The aforementioned narrative of the Heisman becoming quarterback-destined has positioned the market in such a way that Harrison, the consensus-best skill player entering the season, owns the 14th-best odds to win the sport's award for its most outstanding player. He sits tied with his own quarterback — that has yet to be named the starter — entering the final weekend of the Buckeyes' offseason.
Harrison finished fourth overall across college football in touchdown receptions a season ago. Only one of the three names ahead of him in 2022 returns for the upcoming campaign, though Zakhari Franklin has moved over to Ole Miss from UTSA. Egbuka serves as the second-closest name to Route Man Marv among returning Power 5 players on the list of last season's touchdown reception leaders.
Given the lack of returning production across college football that was at the level Harrison achieved in his sophomore campaign, a quarterback situation in limbo could set the stage for "Route Man Marv" to shine even brighter. He figures to serve as a guiding force to the Buckeyes through the early season turbulence of declaring an outright starter for the rest of the year. A few bouts of playing time conceded by Kyle McCord to Devin Brown would only help Harrison stand out further as the leader in his team's success.
Harrison admitted he felt slighted at the end of the last regular season when he failed to win the Biletnikoff Award for the nation's top receiver. He responded to the news by immediately taking the practice field with a Monarc pass-catching machine that night. How often do you see that sort of response from the son of an NFL Hall-of-Famer to the adversity of barely missing the standard of "best?"
Whether or not you agree the Heisman Trophy has become a quarterback's award to lose, it remains indisputable that a wide receiver won the award as recently as only three years ago. Even a TTUN wideout won it that one time! Having a dozen quarterbacks more favorably lined than the guy projected to be the highest-drafted receiver since Calvin Johnson next season seems misguided — especially to win an award that requires a standout performance from the position. Do you really think the guy at the helm of the offense for Louisville is going to give Caleb Williams a run for his money by the time the invites to New York go out?
If you believe in Ohio State this season, then you believe in Harrison as the best player this sport has to offer its fans in 2023. The current market rate across the betting landscape does not reflect the truths that those paying attention have come to understand.
Value changes on a dime — act accordingly or wait for a better price. Let's go Buck$.
