Ohio State’s biggest game of the season thus far awaits this Saturday.
PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONS
Yes, Notre Dame was a top-10 opponent on the road, but this is a top-10 opponent in OSU’s conference. If the No. 3 Buckeyes fall to No. 7 Penn State in the Horseshoe this weekend, they no longer control their own destiny for the Big Ten Championship Game or, by proxy, the College Football Playoff.
The Nittany Lions are an undefeated team that features a talented quarterback with Ohio ties and an elite defense. They’ll put the Buckeyes’ strengths and flaws to the test in FOX’s Big Noon game this Saturday, so let’s take a closer look at what Ohio State is up against.
A kid from Medina
Star Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has a small bit of history with Ohio State that predates his collegiate career.
With a laser focus on Quinn Ewers, the consensus No. 1 prospect in the class of 2022, the Buckeyes largely left Allar to be charmed by other schools despite what was then a four-star rating in the 247Sports composite. They didn’t so much as extend an offer to him at that time. He committed to Penn State in March 2021, four months after Ewers pledged his services to Ohio State.
When Ewers reclassified to the class of 2021 and came to Columbus a year early, the Buckeyes went knocking on Allar’s door with an offer, but there was no longer any interest from the Medina, Ohio native. His recruiting stock had risen in the meantime and he finished as a five-star prospect ranked the No. 32 player and No. 4 quarterback in the country.
The Buckeyes instead brought in Devin Brown, the No. 44 player and No. 5 quarterback in the class of 2022.
Allar has already flashed his potential in his first season as Penn State’s starter. He’s completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,254 yards and 12 touchdowns with no interceptions in six games. Wide receiver Keandre Lambert-Smith has been his top target, with 31 receptions for 402 yards and three scores. Tight end Tyler Warren has provided a red zone threat as well, with five touchdowns to go along with 16 catches for 129 yards.
Ohio State will hope to counter Allar and those weapons with the nation’s No. 4 passing defense, which allows 154.3 passing yards per game. Denzel Burke’s health could be key.
Smothering defense
Penn State possesses the No. 1 total defense and No. 2 scoring defense in all of college football this year. The team has stymied all of its opponents with impressive consistency, having yet to surrender more than 15 points or 4.8 yards per play in a game.
The Nittany Lions have allowed only 72.5 yards per game on the ground and 121.2 yards per game through the air, totals that rank third and first nationally.
Outside linebacker Curtis Jacobs is their top sweeper in the box with a team-high 23 tackles and three tackles for loss, adding one sack and two fumble recoveries. He, Dominic DeLuca, Kobe King and Abdul Carter form a ferocious quartet at linebacker that has combined for 12 tackles for loss, four sacks, two interceptions, four pass breakups, two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries.
Defensive end Adisa Isaac has been Penn State’s go-to man for generating pressure with a team-high five sacks on the year. The Nittany Lions can get after the quarterback from many positions, however, with 27 sacks in 2023 to rank No. 2 in the country for that statistic. Fifteen different Nittany Lions have at least one quarterback takedown.
Penn State’s secondary has held opposing passers to a 49.1 completion percentage, the best mark in the country by 2.6 percent. The gap from the blue and white to second-place Florida State in that stat is greater than the gap from Florida State to Marshall, who ranks 15th by allowing a 54.2 percent completion rate.
An Ohio State offensive line with documented ups and downs and the first-year starting quarterback behind them might have their biggest challenge so far this season on tap. That said, it’s also true that Ohio State’s offense will be the best Penn State has faced so far this season. None of PSU’s five FBS opponents so far this season rank better than 70th nationally in scoring offense or 79th nationally in total offense (both West Virginia).
The beefiest unbeaten yet
This is the sixth undefeated opponent Ohio State will face in seven games to open its 2022 season, but each of those other six teams has lost a game outside their defeat by the Buckeyes since.
With Allar and a bona fide defense in tow, Penn State has yet to win a contest by fewer than 17 points this year, including a 31-0 trouncing of No. 24 Iowa on Sept. 16.
It is safe to say Ohio Stadium will present the most hostile road environment Allar has faced in his first year under center, however, with the Nittany Lions’ only road tests to date being at Illinois and at Northwestern.
Situational showstoppers
Turnovers, third-down conversions and red zone efficiency are some of the biggest metrics when it comes to plays that swing games. Penn State is top 20 in most of those areas.
The Nittany Lions are second in the country in turnover margin at +10, with six fumble recoveries and seven interceptions against just three total giveaways, all lost fumbles.
Their defense is fourth in opposing third-down conversion rate at 26.5 percent and the offense is 19th in converting third downs at 48.2 percent. The offense has also converted 27 of its 33 red zone trips into touchdowns, an 83.3 percent clip that ranks No. 3 nationally, and has added another four field goals inside the 20-yard line for a scoring percentage of 93.9, which ranks 15th.
The lone exception to Penn State’s situational excellence is, shockingly, its red zone defense. Opponents have converted each of their trips to the last fifth of the field into a score of some kind against the Nittany Lions, with all but one being a touchdown. That’s, obviously, last in the country for scoring percentage and 113th in touchdown percentage.
What’s left out of those rate statistics is that offenses have only been inside the 20-yard line against Penn State’s vaunted defense seven times. That’s the fewest red-zone trips allowed in the country.
So, get into the red zone, you’re likely coming away with points. Good luck getting there, though.
Recent run of series success
Ohio State holds a 23-14 edge all-time over Penn State, and much of that has to do with a six-game winning streak over the Nittany Lions and head coach James Franklin. OSU has won each of its matchups against Penn State since 2016, when PSU won a 24-21 showdown in State College that gave the Buckeyes their only regular-season loss of the campaign.
The Buckeyes haven’t lost at home to Penn State since 2011, also the only season this century in which OSU had a losing record after head coach Jim Tressel resigned amid the “Tattoo-Gate” scandal. Joe Paterno’s squad beat the scarlet and gray 14-13 in that tilt during the longtime head coach’s final year.
A seventh straight win over Penn State will be crucial for Ohio State to stay on track to achieve its goals this season. With a loss, the Buckeyes would likely need a Michigan win when the Wolverines play Penn State on Nov. 11 to have a shot to get into the Big Ten Championship Game.
