Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview: Buckeyes’ Big Ten Title Ambitions May Hinge on Offensive Line in Second Top-Five Showdown of 2024

#3 Penn State

Nittany Lions

7-0 (4-0)

roster  |  schedule

NOV. 3, 2024 - NOON

BEAVER STADIUM

University Park, PA

FOXOSU -3

Sure, they could still backdoor into the College Football Playoff following a loss on Saturday, but this Ohio State team is supposed to be one of the most talented rosters in the country. Perhaps the most talented of the Ryan Day era. The Buckeyes' Big Ten Championship goals go out the window with a loss at No. 3 Penn State, and anything less than a conference title would be a massive disappointment after a hype-filled offseason with so many returning seniors and vaunted transfer portal acquisitions.

At some point, talent and experience must yield results.

Three weeks of doubt have steadily risen through the Ohio State fanbase since the Buckeyes' 32-31 loss at then-No. 3, now-No. 1 Oregon, which was followed by a bye week and an upset scare against unranked Nebraska at home. The unease centers around Ohio State's offensive line first and foremost, which lost perhaps its best piece in left tackle Josh Simmons for the season against the Ducks, then replaced him with Zen Michalski who struggled and was injured himself. The Buckeyes are now faced with the reality of having to start a new left tackle for the third week in a row, which likely means moving left guard Donovan Jackson outside.

Ryan Day's ability to win these sorts of do-or-die top-five clashes is in question. Three years of not meeting your three stated goals of beating Michigan, winning a Big Ten title and winning a National Championship will cast doubt on such things.

The tone and tenor around Ohio State's entire program rides on what happens in Happy Valley this weekend.

The Headlines

Front five is key

An average of 2.1 yards per carry with perhaps the nation's best running back tandem says it all. Ohio State's offensive line performance against Nebraska last week was dismal.

In the wake of Michalski's injury, Day remained cryptic about what the actual starting offensive line will be at Penn State. But it'd be a shock if Jackson didn't start at left tackle, both because he was the man to replace Michalski against the Huskers and because the other two guards who could in theory kick outside, Tegra Tshabola and Austin Siereveld, both struggled as much if not more than Michalski when on the field last Saturday. Tshabola played 38 snaps at right guard vs. Nebraska while Siereveld replaced him for 10.

Two options that have been kicked around at left guard are moving Tshabola over to left guard and plugging in Siereveld on the right side or Carson Hinzman filling in at the left guard position directly. Hinzman started at center for last year's maligned offensive line and was in the mix to start at right guard this offseason, only to fade in the competition Tshabola ultimately won. That said, Hinzman has 12 starts under his belt from last season and drew plenty of praise for his development this offseason.

Regardless of what the lineup is for the new-look offensive line, it will indeed be a new look, and there's no time for growing pains or a lack of chemistry to form fissures up front. Penn State possesses an elite front six spearheaded by one of the nation's best pass rushers in Abdul Carter and a havoc-wreaking defensive tackle in Zane Durant. The former has 9.5 tackles for loss and four sacks in 2024, the latter has six TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Penn State could be without its other star defensive end, Dani Dennis-Sutton, who was sidelined from practice this week with a groin injury, but this will still be one of the toughest tests Ohio State’s offensive line faces all season.

"Depth's going to get challenged this week for sure," Day said on his radio show Thursday. "But (we've) got some veteran guys up there like Donnie and Seth (McLaughlin) and Josh Fryar. And Tegra's played and Austin's played and Carson's played. So these guys have experience, that's good. They're going to be challenged in this environment as well, but they'll be ready. They'll be ready to go."

“They'll be ready to go.”– Ryan Day on the offensive line

Quarterback quarrel

There's a lot to talk about with the Penn State quarterback situation and how Ohio State defends said situation so it's being brought under one umbrella here.

First off, Drew Allar is living up to his five-star hype this year in many respects despite an underperforming Nittany Lion receiving corps. No Penn State wideout averages more than 50 yards per game, yet Allar has completed 71.3% of his passes for 1,640 yards and 12 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He's third in the country – one spot ahead of Will Howard – with 10 yards per pass attempt in 2024.

His status isn't solidified for Saturday, however. Injured in the first half of Penn State's game at Wisconsin last week, Allar sat out the rest of the contest as the Nittany Lions came back to win 28-13. PSU head coach James Franklin has said all week that he'll be a game-time decision. Allar did practice on Wednesday, however, and Franklin noted afterward that it's "so far, so good" for the team to get him back.

Even if he plays, the Buckeyes were likely preparing for backup quarterback Beau Pribula to some extent anyway. The more mobile threat in Penn State's new-look offense under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, he has 21 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown this year. Allar himself has added 129 yards and three scores on the ground.

Ohio State has allowed Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola and Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel to step up in the pocket and scramble for chunk gains in its last two games. It'll be important for Ohio State to keep whoever is in at quarterback pinned within the pocket, but especially so if it's Pribula.

"When we do decide to bring pressure, we need to be on our assignments and our gaps," defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said. "I think any time you bring pressure, there's a chance to create creases. And then just keep working on our rush lanes. It's not easily done. When you want guys to throw moves and get pressure, there's going to be some seams. So it's just a constant process of working on it."

Assuming Allar does go – or even if it's Pribula, who is 18-of-23 for 200 yards and three touchdowns in relief of the Medina, Ohio native – it will be a test of an Ohio State secondary thought to be the nation's best entering 2024 but which gave up 341 yards through the air to Gabriel. Denzel Burke, who gave up 179 of those yards per Pro Football Focus, and the rest of BIA need to play like they are the Best in America regardless of who is at quarterback.

Penn State's ground attack shouldn't be disregarded either, since the Nittany Lions have their own star tandem at running back to match Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Kaytron Allen has picked up 509 yards on 101 carries (five yards per carry) with four touchdowns as Nicholas Singleton is at 483 yards on 75 carries (6.4 YPC) with three scores.

Pass the rock?

In light of Ohio State's flounderings running the pigskin against Nebraska, a pass-leaning offense could be in order vs. Penn State.

The Buckeyes' shuffled offensive line will have to protect Howard a game after it allowed three sacks and plenty more pressures to the Huskers' defensive front. But Howard has been excellent throwing the ball this season. He is now on pace to break the team's single-season completion percentage record, and they aren't just empty throws, as he’s fourth-best among quarterbacks nationally with 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate remain arguably the best trio of receivers in the country. Even as Ohio State's offense struggled to score against Nebraska, Howard rattled off his second straight game with a completion rate of 80% or better, going 13-of-16 for 221 yards (13.8 yards per attempt) and all three of the Buckeyes' touchdowns. 

RELATED Ohio State's Passing Attack Remains Productive Despite Overall Offensive Struggles

Three pass plays of 60, 40 and 37 yards accounted for 48.1% of the Buckeyes' offense against the Huskers. Penn State has some good pieces in its secondary and is ranked 19th in passing yards allowed per game (174.6) and tied for sixth in yards allowed per attempt (5.7). But they haven't seen a passing attack the caliber of Ohio State's this year.

Even counting sacks and scrambles in the passing plays and excluding kneel-downs, the Buckeyes dialed up more runs (23) than passes (21) against Nebraska. Day wants Ohio State to stay balanced and feels the ground game needs to be a threat to open up the passing attack. But if the former isn't working, how fast will Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly lean heavier on tossing the rock? A 1-for-10 mark on third-down also needs to be much, much improved.

“We were explosive when we shot the ball down the field, but that's just not always going to happen," Day said on Tuesday. "We have to make sure that we're establishing runs, we're staying effective, and then, again, converting on third down because the more at-bats you have during a drive, the better you're going to be. When you're not converting on third down, you're not keeping drives a lot.”

Keep An Eye for These Guys

Penn State DE Abdul Carter

Carter's name appeared above but it bears repeating. His full stat line this year is 30 tackles with 9.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, three pass breakups and a forced fumble. He's the type of game-wrecker that can derail entire offenses and will provide a massive test for Donovan Jackson's first start at tackle and Josh Fryar opposite him on the right side.

Penn State TE Tyler Warren

Penn State tight end Tyler Warren ran over USC. (Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Here's a stat line from Warren: 17 receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown. Those aren't his season numbers, that's what he put up in one game on the road during Penn State's 33-30 comeback overtime win over USC. It tied the NCAA record for receptions in a game by a tight end.

Warren is the team's leading receiver by a hefty margin on the season. His 47 receptions are more than double the second-most (22) on the team and he's more than 200 yards ahead of the next-leading player in receiving yards with 559 this year. His four receiving touchdowns are also tied for the team lead, and Ohio State will need to know where he is at all times as the Nittany Lions will move him all over the field.

“You make sure you know exactly where he is and who his matchup is and who you want on him and those type of things because he's a very, very good player,” Day said. “You know that they're trying to target him and sometimes hide him based on what's going on, so you got to do a good job of that in practice and make sure the guys know where he is.”

Penn State S Jaylen Reed

Reed makes plays all across the field for Penn State's defense, racking up 44 tackles with 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and two interceptions, one of which he returned for a pick-six against Wisconsin to start the Nittany Lions’ comeback in their 28-13 win over the Badgers last week. The second-year starter is the anchor of the Nittany Lions’ defensive backfield.

Game Week Talk

“It's going to be a homecoming for me. I grew up a Penn State fan. I wanted to go there my whole life. They didn't think I was good enough. But I guess we'll see next week if I was.”– Will Howard on returning to Pennsylvania to play Penn State

Howard is from Downingtown, Pennsylvania and felt overlooked by his home-state school before signing on to play at Kansas State. The above quote closed out his Nebraska postgame press conference when asked about returning to The Keystone State for a game – Saturday will be personal for Ohio State's quarterback, just as it will be for the Ohio native Allar.

“They're as talented of a roster as anybody in the country, and they're that way every single year. They are as well this year.”– James Franklin on Ohio State

Day's 2-6 record in top-five games is countered by Franklin's 3-17 mark against top-10 foes. That includes Ohio State's seven-game winning streak over Franklin's Nittany Lions. He knows full well the type of roster the Buckeyes possess year after year, but just like Day, Franklin has a chance to rewrite some narratives in this game.

“We only have one assignment each play. And at the end of the day, we have to play that one assignment. If everybody on the defense does that, then we'll be in good shape.”– Caleb Downs on the key for Ohio State's defense

Ohio State's defense carried the team last Saturday, getting back-to-back crucial fourth-quarter stops to seal the game. Kotelnicki's offense has a lot of window dressing and some creative designs, so assignment football and a pass rush that forces Allar or Pribula off his spot will be crucial.

Get Smart

• Ohio State has a 25-14 all-time record vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes enter this year’s contest on a seven-game winning streak, the longest streak in series history.
• The Buckeyes are playing the Nittany Lions for the 32nd consecutive year, their longest active streak of playing any opponent because the 2020 Michigan game was canceled. That streak will continue in 2025 before ending in 2026, as OSU and PSU will no longer play each other every year now that the Big Ten has expanded to 18 teams.
• Penn State is Ohio State’s second top-five-ranked opponent of the season, marking the second time in three years (Notre Dame and Michigan in 2022) that Ohio State will play two top-five teams in the regular season. Ohio State has lost its last four games against top-five opponents since its 21-10 win over Notre Dame to open the 2022 season.
• ESPN’s College GameDay will be on site for an Ohio State game for the second time this season as GameDay was also in attendance for Ohio State’s loss to Oregon. The Buckeyes have a 40-20 all-time record in games attended by GameDay.
• FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will also be on site for an Ohio State game for the third time this season as FOX’s pregame show was also in attendance for OSU’s home wins over Marshall and Nebraska. Ohio State has a 15-4 record when Big Noon Kickoff is on site.
• Ohio State’s roster includes two players from Pennsylvania: starting quarterback Will Howard and reserve safety Keenan Nelson Jr.
• Penn State’s roster includes four players from Ohio: Quarterbacks Drew Allar and Ethan Grunkemeyer and wide receivers Liam Clifford and Kaden Saunders.
• Former Ohio State wide receiver Julian Fleming now plays for Penn State. He’s caught 10 passes for 148 yards in seven games with one start this season.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -3, O/U 46.5

If Ohio State's offensive line can rise to the occasion, establish something resembling a running game and give Howard enough time to attack Penn State's secondary, the Buckeyes could win this game and even win it comfortably. If they play like they did against Nebraska, they’ll likely lose. Perhaps something in the middle is more of what to expect.

The defense has to play its part, too. With the Nittany Lions' lack of receiving weapons, coverage schemes should shade Warren while the defensive front needs to bottle up Allen and Singleton and get after the quarterback.

For the first time this season, the Eleven Warriors staff did not unanimously select the Buckeyes, with two of our 14 writers picking Penn State. None of our staffers, regardless of which team they picked, is predicting a multi-score win for either side.

While the outcome stung for the Buckeyes, Ohio State's first top-five matchup of the season lived up to all the hype surrounding the game. Expect the same in Beaver Stadium.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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