Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State football, poetry in motion.
Beauty in the grind #GoBucks | @MyBobs pic.twitter.com/DazT2R41pN
— Ohio State Buckeyes (@OhioStAthletics) August 13, 2024
Have a good Wednesday.
BUCKLE UP. Ohio State will enter the 2024 season ranked second in the AP and Coaches polls. The Buckeyes will also start the year ranked second in ESPN and Bill Connelly's SP+.
What is SP+?
In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling – no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
The top 10 teams:
| RANK | TEAM | SP+ | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SP. TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GEORGIA | 34.2 | 46.2 (3) | 12.0 (5) | 0.7 (4) |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 30.8 | 35.7 (25) | 4.9 (2) | 0.5 (20) |
| 3 | OREGON | 29.0 | 47.1 (1) | 18.1 (15) | -0.2 (85) |
| 4 | ALABAMA | 27.8 | 42.7 (7) | 14.9 (8) | 0.7 (2) |
| 5 | TEXAS | 27.7 | 44.4 (4) | 16.8 (12) | 0.5 (17) |
| 6 | PENN STATE | 26.1 | 35.8 (24) | 9.7 (4) | 0.4 (28) |
| 7 | MICHIGAN | 25.0 | 31.9 (41) | 6.9 (3) | 0.6 (7) |
| 8 | OLE MISS | 24.7 | 42.9 (6) | 18.3 (16) | 0.5 (26) |
| 9 | NOTRE DAME | 23.4 | 39.0 (10) | 15.6 (9) | 0.2 (53) |
| 10 | LSU | 23.1 | 46.3 (2) | 23.2 (38) | -0.1 (83) |
According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, Ohio State is the fourth-best team behind Georgia, Oregon and Texas. The Buckeyes, who possess a 22.2 FPI, have a 25.7 percent chance to win the Big Ten, a 67.2 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff, a 19 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff final and a 10.5 percent chance to win the national title.
To accomplish those feats, Ohio State will need to navigate a schedule that includes a handful of cupcakes and a handful of stiff tests.
Here's a look at how the SP+ ranks each team on the Buckeyes' 2024 schedule:
- Akron: No. 133 (of 134 teams) with the No. 134 offense, No. 76 defense and No. 131 special teams
- Western Michigan: No. 110 with the No. 103 offense, No. 102 defense and No. 125 special teams
- Marshall: No. 95 with the No. 83 offense, No. 105 defense and No. 120 special teams
- Michigan State: No. 71 with the No. 121 offense, No. 26 defense and No. 16 special teams
- Iowa: No. 24 with the No. 114 offense, No. 1 defense and No. 30 special teams
- Oregon: No. 3 with the No. 1 offense, No. 15 defense and No. 85 special teams
- Nebraska: No. 42 with the No. 106 offense, No. 6 defense and No. 106 special teams
- Penn State: No. 6 with the No. 24 offense, No. 4 defense and No. 28 special teams
- Purdue: No. 68 with the No. 70 offense, No. 63 defense and No. 128 special teams
- Northwestern: No. 75 with the No. 117 offense, No. 29 defense and No. 105 special teams
- Indiana: No. 81 with the No. 91 offense, No. 61 defense and No. 63 special teams
- Michigan: No. 7 with the No. 41 offense, No. 3 defense and No. 7 special teams
GOT DRAFT PICKS? In addition to the final preseason updates to the SP+ and College Football Power Index, the Worldwide Leader in Sports also looked at teams with the most 2025 NFL draft prospects this week. Jordan Reid ranked Ohio State second behind Georgia and ahead of Texas, Notre Dame and Michigan in the exercise.
Here's what Reid wrote about the Buckeyes:
Top prospect to know: Denzel Burke, CB
Sleeper prospect to watch: Josh Simmons, OT
Game circled on the schedule: at Oregon, Oct. 12The Buckeyes' draft class starts with Burke. After an inconsistent, injury-riddled 2022 season, the 6-foot-1, 193-pound corner rebounded to his freshman form, allowing a mere 38.5% completion percentage as the primary defender in 2023. If he's able to repeat that performance, Burke will likely finish as a mid-to-late first-round pick. Fellow defensive backs Davison Igbinosun, Jordan Hancock and Lathan Ransom have a mixture of Day 2 and Day 3 grades.
Senior edge rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are surprise returnees, as they were expected to declare for the 2024 draft. They're currently seen as Day 2 prospects, but scouts view Tuimoloau's upside as greater because of his burst and NFL-ready power in his hands.
"If we could make every game the Penn State game, he'd be an easy top-15 pick," an NFC area scout mentioned about the Ohio State edge rusher, who has three sacks in his past two games against the Nittany Lions.
Defensive tackle Tyleik Williams could also be a top-50 pick.
Offensively, the Buckeyes have three skill players -- running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson along with wide receiver Emeka Egbuka -- who are being watched closely. Egbuka was plagued a nagging ankle injury last season and saw his production suffer, going from 74 receptions, 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022 to a 41-515-4 line last season. If the crafty 6-foot-1, 205-pounder returns to form, he could rise into Round 1.
Judkins and Henderson form arguably the best backfield tandem in the country. The tough and rugged Judkins broke 53 tackles last season at Ole Miss, where he rushed for 1,158 yards and 15 TDs. Henderson has had injury issues the past two seasons, missing eight games and parts of several others. He ran for 834 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2023 and could join Judkins as a Day 2 pick if he shows more durability.
The Buckeyes have three offensive linemen to watch, with Simmons showing the most room for growth if he can improve on the 10 pressures he allowed last season at left tackle. Left guard Donovan Jackson has received a mixture of Day 2 and Day 3 grades, while center Seth McLaughlin is seen as a late-round pick.
As for quarterback Will Howard, scouts see the 6-foot-5, 237-pound Kansas State transfer as a late-round possibility. He has dual-threat capabilities but must show more as a passer.
Predicted first-rounders in 2025: 2
Predicted total draft picks in 2025: 14
Is having 14 draft picks on your team... good?
THAT'S INTERESTING... Ohio State linebacker Cody Simon was hoodwinked, bamboozled, led astray, run amok and flat-out deceived on Tuesday when the Butkus Foundation named 51 preseason candidates for the Butkus Award – and he wasn't one of them. Instead, Sonny Styles and C.J. Hicks were named candidates amid their competition at Will linebacker, where whoever wins the battle will start next to Cody Simon.
I know it's a preseason award, so what does it matter?
But still, the disrespect!
According to Ohio State linebackers coach James Laurinaitis, Simon is the most complete player in his room. That, to me, makes Simon one of college football's best linebackers, period, let alone one of the top 51.
"He's the unquestioned leader of the group. He's the leader of the defense," Laurinaitis said last week. "He's technical. He has really good footwork, really clean footwork, which allows him to change direction and get off blocks and tackle well."
When Simon thinks about being Ohio State's unquestioned leader, he feels flattered. Still, Simon knows he can improve. As he pushes to make those improvements, the veteran defender wants to be an example for his teammates.
"They look to someone to see an example, and I need to be able to lead them vocally, physically and emotionally," Simon said. "That's what I try to be every day (is a leader). It's a tough role. But I love playing football. I love it. I love this place. It's a great job to have."
An unquestioned leader. A complete linebacker. An example.
You seeing that, Butkus Foundation?
FUTUREEE! FUTUREEE! FUTUREEE! OK, so, basically...
ICYMI, Tennesee and Pilot announced a partnership to preserve Neyland Stadium for at least the next 20 years. While I hate to offer Tennessee credit for stuff – not because I dislike the Volunteers, but rather Volunteer fans – I think the school's athletic department has provided Ohio State with a suitable path to preserve Ohio Stadium's name while earning revenue for student-athletes.
From a Tennessee press release:
Tennessee Athletics and Pilot are breaking new ground in college sports by entering a multi-year partnership that preserves the iconic venue's name and enhances the stadium experience for future generations. Under the terms of the agreement, which is slated for up to 20 years and could extend further, the names of Neyland Stadium and Shields-Watkins Field will remain unchanged. Pilot is designated as the presenting partner of the Neyland Stadium renovation project and the official travel stop of Tennessee Athletics.
"As we navigate the changing landscape of college athletics, we are dedicated to building the best athletics department in the country," said Vice Chancellor and Director of Athletics Danny White. "Because we were committed to preserving the name of Neyland Stadium, finding a partner who shared this vision was essential. With deep roots here in Knoxville, Pilot recognizes the significance of Neyland and the importance of tradition to our fans and the university. Our focus continues to preserve and honor our storied past while modernizing to ensure we lead the way in college sports."
Neyland Stadium. Home of the Vols. Proudly preserved by Pilot.
"Neyland Stadium is one of the most iconic sporting venues in the world and UT is a significant part of making Knoxville a special place that Pilot is proud to call home," said Pilot CEO Adam Wright. "Through this partnership, we will preserve the legacy of Neyland while also investing in its future to create exceptional experiences for generations to come. We look forward to seeing you out here as we cheer on the Vols in Neyland."
New signage on the east side of Neyland Stadium will feature a return of the iconic "Home of the Vols" along with Pilot's logo. Pilot's branding will also be on each side of Shields-Watkins field and in sponsored content with Tennessee Athletics and the Vol Network....
The press release does not include information about the financial agreement between Tennesee and Pilot; however, I would imagine the number involves several zeroes if the deal between the two parties lasts at least 20 years.
Given Tennessee and Pilot's desire to preserve Neyland Stadium's name and the finances associated with the agreement, I think Ohio State president Ted Carter, athletic director Ross Bjork and the Buckeyes should pursue a similar deal with a Columbus company, be it JP Morgan, Nationwide, Safelite Autoglass or even one of the tech companies breaking ground in New Albany like Amazon, Google and Intel.
To me, that sounds like the best of both worlds. Ohio Stadium remains Ohio Stadium, the Horseshoe (or the Shoe) and the House That Harley Built, but Ohio State also receives a boost to its annual revenue, allowing the school to maintain 36 sports as it shares that revenue with student-athletes.
SONG OF THE DAY. "I'm Coming Home to Stay" - Fleetwood Mac.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Frank Selvy, NCAA record holder with 100 points in a game, dies at 91... Before lobster, Maine had a thriving sardine industry. A sunken ship reminds us of its storied past... Banksy London Zoo mural offers clue to why wild animals have been appearing all over city... Utah's famed Double Arch collapses... Breaking will not be returning to the Olympics in 2028.
