Ohio State's abysmal season has been front and center around these parts for a few months but now that the Buckeye hoops season has mercifully ended, we can focus more on what has also been a down season for the Big Ten and attempt to conclude how that might translate to success in this year's NCAA tournament.
The Big Ten sometimes gets a bad rap when it comes to tourney success because a league team hasn't won the national title since Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans did so back in 2000.
Since then however, despite failing to win a crown, the Big Ten has recorded two national runners up and the league also boasts at least one Final Four team in seven of the last 10 tourneys and five in the last five seasons.
This year, however, despite earning seven Dance bids which is right in line with the previous five seasons, it's difficult to envision the conference having anywhere near that same level of success.
| YEAR | BIDS | RECORD | WIN PCT | BEST FOUR SEEDS | BEST FINISHES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | ?-? | ??? | (4) PUR, (5) MINN, (6) MD, (7) MICH | ???? |
| 2016 | 7 | 8-7 | .533 (3RD) | (2) MSU, (5) IU, (5) MD, (7) WISC | IU, MD, WISC: SWEET 16 |
| 2015 | 7 | 12-7 | .632 (3RD) | (1) WISC, (4) MD, (7) MSU, (7) IOWA | MSU: FINAL 4 | WISC: CG |
| 2014 | 6 | 10-6 | .625 (3RD) | (2) WISC, (2) MICH, (4) MSU, (6) OSU | MICH, MSU: ELITE 8 | WISC: FINAL 4 |
| 2013 | 7 | 14-7 | .667 (2ND) | (1) IU, (2) OSU, (3) MSU, (4) MICH | OSU: ELITE 8 | MICH: CG |
| 2012 | 6 | 11-6 | .647 (3RD) | (1) MSU, (2) OSU, (4)WISC, (4) MICH, (4) IU | WISC, IU, MSU: SWEET 16 | OSU: FINAL 4 |
So exactly what can we expect from this year's B1G entrants? It's tough to predict when it comes to March Madness but the seeds and early round point spreads don't paint a very pretty picture.
PURDUE - #4 SEED - MIDWEST REGION
Purdue heads the pack thanks to a No. 4 seed in the Midwest region. That No. 4 seed represents the worst "best seed" for the conference since Illinois was a 5-seed in 2005. That year the conference mustered only three bids and only one squad, those Illini, reached the Sweet 16.
The Boilers begin tourney play tonight at 7:27 p.m. EDT against No. 13 seed Vermont and enjoy the largest point spread of any B1G team as an 10.5 point favorite.
It's hard to imagine the Catamounts hanging with the size of Caleb Swanigan and company despite the reality they've won 21 straight games. The rosters are different to be sure but the Boilers beat Vermont by 28 as recently as November of the 2015-16 season so there's little reason to believe a ton has changed that would alter Purdue moving on.
A Purdue win slots it against the winner of (5) Iowa State and (12) Nevada with many thinking the Wolf Pack have a legit shot to handle the Cyclones. (Note: if you're a gambler like me, note Nevada is 23-10-1 versus the spread this season.) Should the Boilers handle either of those foes, a date with No. 1 seed Kansas awaits which should signal curtains on the Boilers in the Sweet 16.
MINNESOTA - #5 SEED - SOUTH REGION
You wouldn't get an argument from too many folks that the Gophers are probably over-seeded at No. 5 despite a solid season turned in by Richard Pitino's squad.
The No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders shocked No. 2 seed Michigan State last season and they can fill it meaning the Gophers better have it going offensively if they wish to advance.
Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams will be the most talented scorer on the floor so Pitino will need to game plan to slow him down if the Gophers want a chance to play on Saturday.
Should the Gophers win this one – they're currently a one-point underdog – they'll take on the winner of Butler and Winthrop. The No. 4 seed Bulldogs beat Villanova twice this year and stand as 12-point favorites over Winthrop.
If the Gophers are able to pull off two wins, they would most likely be in for a thrashing at the hands of the South region's top seed, North Carolina.
MARYLAND - #6 SEED - WEST REGION
Melo Trimble and Justin Jackson, in particular, give Maryland a shot to make some noise though they'll open the Dance as just 2-point favorites over No. 11 seed Xavier.
I plan to lay the two points in this one because I'm a big fan of Jackson and Trimble, while streaky, is an experienced guy who can take over late.
Things could get dicey for the Terps in the 2nd round (or whatever they try to call it now) as they'll likely have to take on No. 3 seed Florida State.
I like Florida State in that one – they'll surely be favored – and even if Maryland pulls the upset, a beatdown at the hands of Arizona would likely await meaning another B1G team would fail to advance past the Sweet 16.
MICHIGAN - #7 SEED - MIDWEST REGION
The Wolverines have emerged as a sleeper team for some based on the reality they cheated death en route to the B1G tournament championship, posting wins over Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
That was quite a run to be sure but I wonder if all the hype surrounding a squad that still lost 11 games including one to Ohio State in Ann Arbor can sustain its recent level of play.
Michigan opens Dance play just after noon on Friday as a 3-point favorite over No. 10 seed Oklahoma State.
I would be inclined to pick Michigan to win that one though I'm not sure I'd touch the spread. Should the Wolverines advance, bad news likely awaits as the No. 2 seed Louisville Cardinals would be next on the docket.
If Michigan could find a way to win that one they'd have a legit shot to reach the Elite Eight but I just don't see that happening.
WISCONSIN - #8 SEED - EAST REGION
The Badgers get their tourney started tonight at 9:40 against No. 9 seed Virginia Tech.
Wisconsin seems under-seeded and enter this one as a 5.5-point favorite. Considering the tournament pedigree on the roster I like the Badgers to advance but the reality for 8/9 seeds is that a date with a No. 1 seed awaits on the weekend.
In this case, a Badger victory sets up a date with the tournament's overall No. 1 seed in Villanova and the odds seem slim to none, and slim's out of town, that the Big Ten's regular season runner up can upset the defending national champs.
NORTHWESTERN - #8 SEED - WEST REGION
The Wildcats will have much of the nation pulling for them after ending a streak of 78 years without an NCAA tournament appearance.
Chris Collins deserves a ton of credit for leading Northwestern to the dance after a 23-11 season but will finally getting there be good enough?
Emotion could help push them past No. 9 seed Vanderbilt – I'd definitely take the Wildcats +3 which is the current line – but just like Wisconsin, should Northwestern slip past Vandy, they'll have to turn back a No. 1 seed in Gonzaga to make the Sweet 16.
I'm not bullish on the Zags by any stretch but I can't see Mark Few's crew losing to a first-time tourney entrant this year.
MICHIGAN STATE - #9 SEED - MIDWEST REGION
Tom Izzo is a beast in the tournament, that much is hard to argue after seven trips to at least the Sweet 16 in the last nine seasons including three Final Fours.
Sparty did bow out to a 15-seed last year however and this year's squad has been largely mediocre going 19-14 overall and 10-8 in regular season league action.
Izzo's squad will likely have its hands full in the tourney opener Friday night against Miami, Florida. The Canes enter as a 2.5-point favorite and boast wins over Duke, North Carolina and Virginia this year. I like Miami's size and guard play to be the difference in this one and even if the Spartans find a way to pull it out, they'll face No. 1 seed Kansas on Sunday likely poking a fork in the season.
BOTTOM LINE
Summing it up, Big Ten teams are favored in four opening round matchups and underdogs in three others. Four of the seven entrants – Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern and Michigan – will almost assuredly be forced to take on a No. 1 or No. 2 seed over the weekend likely signaling the end of their collective seasons.
Maryland wouldn't be in much better shape considering a win probably earns a date with No. 3 Florida State though as I noted, I wouldn't be surprised to see Maryland turn back the Seminoles to earn a Sweet 16 berth before Arizona carves them up.
No. 5 Minnesota could certainly make a run to the Sweet 16 needing doable wins over Middle Tennessee State and Butler/Winthrop before the Tar Heels turn their lights out.
That leaves No. 4 seed Purdue which has a 51% chance to reach the Sweet 16 according to FiveThirtyEight but just a 20% chance to reach the Elite Eight.
Bottom line, the B1G could be headed to a similar fate as last season when just three teams made the Sweet 16 and none reached the Elite Eight.
My gut says only two B1G squads reach the Sweet 16 – some combo of Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota – and even if all three make it, none advance from there.
But hey, it's March Madness so who the hell knows. I'll be pulling for the league, I'm just not expecting much.
