We have shifted to season coverage here at Eleven Warriors. As part of our season coverage, we'll be looking over polls of note every Monday to see what they say about talking points this season. Later into the season, our coverage will move to a discussion of the playoff committee rankings.
For this week, we will scan the Associated Press (AP) voter data for peculiarities and what discernible patterns may suggest about particular teams or conferences before the season gets underway.
Notre Dame: Contender or Pretender?
Notre Dame is a divisive team among college football analysts. Those who project a playoff berth for the Irish do so because they return almost everyone from last year's squad. Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame's linebacker, may win one or several postseason accolades.
Skeptics, like myself, note that last year's Irish team was 8-5. Its signature regular-season win was a loss at Florida State. The bowl win against LSU (an 8-point favorite) came against the village idiot of the SEC. I think we give the Irish too much credit even if it has nice assets at positions like linebacker and wide receiver.
It should be unsurprising that the preseason no. 11 Irish are the first team in the AP Top 25 to be left off one particular voter's ballot. Chadd Cripe (The Idaho Statesman) has them unranked. Josh Kendall (The State [Columbia, SC]) even has them at just no. 23.
Notre Dame's vote distribution centers on no. 11 but it has votes on the high end as well. Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), whose ballots are notoriously screwy, has Notre Dame at no. 2 behind Ohio State. Mitch Vingle (Charleston Gazette-Mail) has them at no. 3.
Those who project Notre Dame as a playoff favorite must have considerable optimism that the Irish will defeat no. 12 Clemson in Death Valley. That game will be on October 3. Notre Dame will host Navy and no. 8 USC in its next two games thereafter.
Who Finishes Last in the SEC West?
Five SEC West teams—Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and Arkansas—are in the AP Top 25. The other two teams—Mississippi State and Texas A&M—are just outside the Top 25 at no. 26 and no. 27, respectively. The SEC West has made January implosions into an art form the past two years, but that does not preclude favorable rankings entering this season.
One of the more intriguing plots to this season is not necessarily who wins the SEC West, but who finishes last. With Dan Mullen's extension after the Orange Bowl loss to Georgia Tech, every coach in the division now makes over $4 million a year. One of those coaches will be compensated quite handsomely to finish last in the division and, ostensibly, with a record at 7-5 or worse.
The modal pick for last-place finisher in the SEC West is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year's team. However, Dak Prescott is likely the consensus-best quarterback in the entire conference. His presence is why Mitch Vingle has the Bulldogs ranked at no. 12. Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News) has Mississippi State at no. 16. This is what makes the question of a last-place finisher in the SEC West more interesting.
Those who are not picking Mississippi State tend to pick Arkansas as the last-place finisher in the SEC West. Arkansas had been the SEC West's cellar-dweller over the past few years. However, no. 18 Arkansas might be the hottest team in the entire league, or at least the most intriguing. Arkansas has arguably the best running back duo in the country and one of the best offensive lines. I also put more stock in what Arkansas did to Texas than what Notre Dame did to LSU as a projection of improvement from 2014 to 2015.
Still, Arkansas was unranked in nine of 61 AP ballots. Sam McKewon (Omaha World-Herald) may be the most optimistic about Bielema's rebuilding project in Fayetteville, placing Arkansas at no. 8 on his ballot.
What about Texas A&M? The Aggies had the conference's worst defense by almost 20 yards per game, but hired John Chavis from LSU to fix that. It also has arguably the league's best pass-rusher and a battery of five-star talent at quarterback and wide receiver. Ed Johnson (Albuquerque Journal) has Texas A&M at no. 12 on his ballot.
We assume programs like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss are safe though no one really is in that division. Alabama does not have a quarterback, lost its best play-maker from last year, and has major concerns at secondary in what might be a rebuilding year (by Alabama standards).
Auburn is a favorite to win the division but had no defense last year. LSU lost its star defensive coordinator to Texas A&M. It also had no offense last year and will not for the foreseeable future. Ole Miss' new quarterback may be mediocre at best (and more error-prone than Bo Wallace, if you can believe that), but the team may have as many as four first-round draft picks in 2016.
Are These Voters Prescient or Insane?
Finally, here are some peculiar votes among the AP voter data. Perhaps these voters see something that others should and do not. Perhaps they are just insane.
- Oklahoma is the preseason no. 20 team whose luster dissipated in 2014. Mitch Vingle, who pegged the Sooners at no. 5 on his ballot, must have drunk the Baker Mayfield Kool-Aid.
- Auburn is likely the favorite to win the SEC West this year, but not all are sold. Sam McKewon has Auburn at no. 21, the lowest vote on any ballot. Joel Klatt (FOX Sports) has Auburn at no. 16.
- Mitch Vingle may have unseated Jon Wilner for the screwiest ballot. He has a top three of Ohio State (the consensus no. 1), followed by LSU and Notre Dame. He has Ole Miss at no. 8, TCU at no. 17(!), and Clemson at no. 23.
- Oklahoma State appears near the end of several ballots, though is "unranked" at no. 28. Sam McKewon has Oklahoma State at no. 12.
- Jon Wilner's 18th-place vote for Cincinnati is the Bearcats only vote in the AP, but it was high enough to surpass other notables like Nebraska, Florida, and Texas.
