Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Holds Steady
Last week saw Ohio State lose 16 additional no. 1 votes, after losing two no. 1 votes to Michigan State following the Spartans' win over Oregon. This week, Ohio State actually gained ten points of cushion over no. 2 Michigan State, despite losing eight points overall from the previous week.
How did this happen? Ultimately, there was not a lot of movement for Ohio State from last week's poll to this week's poll. Voters, for the most part, didn't change their opinion on the Buckeyes. Ohio State actually regained Joel Klatt's (FOX Sports), Gary Horowitz's (Statesman Journal), and Marc Weiszer's (Athens [GA] Banner-Herald) no. 1 vote. Klatt and Weiszer had the Buckeyes at no. 2 last week. Horowitz had the Buckeyes at no. 3.
The Buckeyes slid down a spot in some ballots, like from four to five on Dave Reardon's (Honolulu Star-Advertiser) ballot and from three to four on Doug Lesmerises' (Cleveland Plain Dealer) ballot. It also climbed a spot from no. 3 to no. 2 on Michael Lev's (Orange County Register) ballot. For the most part, these small changes wash out.
Three ballots, in particular, appear to be the difference for Ohio State's eight-point slide from last week. Brett McMurphy (ESPN) had Ohio State at no. 2 last week and at no. 5 this week. John Adams (Knoxville News Sentinel), who had the conference fanboy ballot of the week last week, cast Ohio State at no. 9 this week, a difference of four points from no. 5 last week. Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), whose ballots are always performance art, has Ohio State at no. 7 this week. He previously had them at no. 4 last week.
All told, that constitutes the entire difference of Ohio State's change in position from last week. Ohio State's loss of eight points but gain in ten points in cushion, is more a function of votes being reapportioned to programs like UCLA and Utah from other programs.
This Week's Big Loser: Oregon
This week's ballot looked more like a case of votes getting reapportioned to programs like Utah and UCLA. Texas Christian is conspicuous for losing 91 points from last week, but it still sits at no. 4. It was tied for no. 3 last week.
The big loser was clearly Oregon. The Ducks sat at no. 13 last week and had 855 points. They even had a high of no. 5 on ballots cast by Jim Polzin (Wisconsin State Journal) and, naturally, Jon Wilner. This week, Oregon is unranked and has just 64 points. That is a 791-point loss.
A 64-point tally among the ballots means Oregon is nominally the no. 27 team in the country. However, it appears on just 10 of 60 ballots. Most votes are in the twenties, though last week's most optimistic Ducks voters retained their position this week. Jim Polzin and Jon Wilner voted Oregon at no. 17, the highest appearance for Oregon on any ballot.
Oregon's absence in this week's AP Top 25 breaks a streak of consecutive appearances that dates to the fourth week of the 2009 season. It's beginning to feel like an end of an era in Eugene.
Along Comes Michigan
Michigan is easily the week's biggest winner. Michigan appeared on zero ballots last week but soared to no. 22 in the AP Top 25 this week. That's effectively a surge of 209 points for Michigan's first AP Top 25 appearance since the ninth week of the 2013 season.
It's not hard to understand Michigan's surge. Michigan's lone loss to date was the season-opener against Utah in Salt Lake City, which looks like a "quality loss" given what Utah did to Oregon. It also just mauled a Brigham Young team that was ranked no. 22 last week and was living a somewhat charmed life before entering Ann Arbor.
There's reason for optimism, but how much? Some voters are enamored. Chadd Cripe (The Idaho Statesman) has Michigan at no. 15, which is Michigan's second highest appearance on any given ballot. The highest vote for Michigan comes from, you guessed it, Jon Wilner. I think I've mentioned before that Wilner's ballots are always performance art.
Michigan does not appear on 17 of 60 ballots.
Other Peculiar Observations
- I gave John Adams grief for having a conference fanboy ballot last week. That's mostly not true this week. Adams has a top five of Utah, Ole Miss, UCLA, Texas Christian, and Texas A&M. He is Utah's lone no. 1 vote and the second highest vote for UCLA and Texas A&M.
- Brett McMurphy and Joey Knight (Tampa Bay Times) are responsible for UCLA's highest vote (no. 2). Still, others are not convinced and UCLA's overall no. 7 selection reflects the general consensus of the AP voters. Tom Murphy (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette) even has UCLA at no. 14.
- Doug Lesmerises has Northwestern at no. 6, which is by far the most conspicuous top-ten vote for a team outside the AP Top Ten.
- Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News) is the only voter to have Tennessee on his ballot. He voted them at no. 22, ahead of USC at no. 25 on his ballot. I'm sure he had his reasons.
