Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
The Fallout from Saturday Night
Ohio State entered Wisconsin as huge favorites and left as overtime victors. A failure to cover usually leads to down votes. Beating a team that now has multiple losses—in Wisconsin's case: two straight losses—usually dampens voter enthusiasm. I expected Ohio State to lose points and for Wisconsin to tumble to the high teens.
That did not materialize in the newest AP Poll. Ohio State lost its two first-place votes to Alabama but gained 13 points. Wisconsin fell just two spots from No. 8 to No. 10. Wisconsin basically got the same SEC treatment I whined about last week.
We can understand Ohio State's improved position (first-place votes notwithstanding) by reference to Clemson's bad overtime win at home against NC State on its homecoming. It was the only program who could've knocked Ohio State from No. 2 even if both had won. Michigan had its bye and generally voters don't leapfrog teams two spots when one plays and wins and the other is on a bye.
Wisconsin's rank is interesting. Despite back-to-back losses, one in which its offense was manhandled and another in which it blew a second-half lead and lost at home, the Badgers are still a top 10 program. It effectively got the SEC treatment, which is fantastic for conference credibility. The league again retains four teams in the top 10, which it last did in 1960 prior to this season.
While this discussion reflects the poll's consensus, do know there are several voters too eager to dump the Badgers after two straight losses. Wisconsin has three No. 17 votes (Robert Gagliardi, Rob Long, Tom Murphy) and a No. 19 vote from Kirk Bohls.
Clemson and Michigan Swaps Places
Few teams in the top 25 had a worse Saturday than Clemson, which is a provocative statement because 1) Clemson still won and 2) Clemson is at least not Tennessee. Both are true, but Tennessee is irrelevant and Clemson is still entertaining ideas of a playoff berth. A limp win over NC State, one of several limp wins already this season, did not inspire any confidence this team is capable of building on what it accomplished last season.
| Voter | Affiliation | Week 7 Vote | Week 8 Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Carlton | Dallas Morning-News | 3 | 6 |
| Michael Lev | Arizona Daily Star | 3 | 6 |
| Tom Murphy | Arkansas Democrat-Gazette | 3 | 6 |
| Pat Caputo | The Oakland Press | 3 | 7 |
So, Clemson lost 69 points from last week and Michigan gained 29 points while on its bye. The end result was a swap of positions between No. 3 and No. 4. Michigan may have been the biggest beneficiary for Clemson's latest struggle. Alabama got its two first-place votes and Washington also gained 18 points despite on a bye itself.
Clemson now has four votes at six or worse compared to Michigan's two. It had 14 votes at No. 1 or No. 2 last week compared to just two votes at No. 2 this week. Ed Daigneault and Ed Johnson are responsible for those two No. 2 votes. The AP voters want to sell Clemson. Michigan looks like an attractive substitute at the moment.
On Alabama, the SEC, and Garbage
Let's say two uncomfortable truths about Alabama and the SEC.
First, Alabama is very good. Ohio State fans may want to explain Alabama's dominance away or qualify it as they can. Yes, Alabama gets mulligans no other program gets. The 2011 national championship stands out as an egregious second chance no other program would get (or should get). Yes, Alabama goes out of its way to eschew home-and-homes and to schedule non-conference games in its own backyard (e.g. Atlanta, Arlington) that are more accessible for it than its visitors. It's cynical while it's red meat for sportswriters. Personally, I'm not convinced Alabama is that great this year. I see important weaknesses, a true freshman quarterback among them.
All are beside the point. Alabama may not be that great, but no other program is as thoroughly good in every facet of the game. It shows every week. Alabama deserves to have all the first-place votes it has right now. Only Michigan stands between Alabama and a clean sweep of all No. 1 votes in the AP Poll. They're the safest pick to repeat as national champions in January. Saying anything else would be motivated reasoning.
Home fans left Neyland Stadium when they realized their beloved home team was in fact garbage. (Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports)
The second uncomfortable truth: the SEC is garbage. The SEC East is cold, wet garbage that has fallen face-first in all its encounters with the other division. This holds even for Florida, a team with a great defense but rotates a Purdue refugee to quarterback its garbage offense. Tennessee has played like garbage to begin the season and only got called out for its garbage in its past two games.
The SEC West, far from the "toughest division in college football", is also garbage (Alabama notwithstanding). Auburn is garbage in a sweater vest. LSU fired its coach for being garbage. Ole Miss is 3-3 and all 3-3 teams are garbage. Ergo, Ole Miss is garbage. Mississippi State? $4-million-dollar, last-place garbage. Arkansas? Lose-to-Toledo, need-a-fourth-quarter-rally-to-beat-Louisiana-Tech garbage. Texas A&M? Momentarily undefeated but morphs from Cinderella into garbage when September becomes October. The transformation into garbage will start this Saturday when Texas A&M and its garbage No. 98 total defense travel to Tuscaloosa.
Let this conversation stand at odds with what the AP voters think. Seven other programs from Alabama's garbage conference are ranked in the poll. Some of these rankings are quite comical. Auburn is 4-2 with wins over Arkansas State, UL Monroe, a garbage Mississippi State team, and an LSU team that played like garbage, is garbage, and immediately fired its coach afterward. This Auburn team is the AP No. 18.
Ole Miss is 3-3. Its three wins are over Wofford, a decent American Athletic team (Memphis), and a garbage Georgia team from the worst division in football. This team is the AP No. 23.
LSU is 4-2. Two of its wins come from an FCS squad and a 4-3 Conference-USA team. It also beat Missouri and Mississippi State, which might as well be garbage Conference-USA teams. This is now the AP No. 25.
We should ask ourselves why we think the SEC is entitled to eight teams in any given AP Poll. Do voters do this cynically to make Alabama look good by association? That any Alabama loss—and there's always one somewhere—gets an immediate qualifier because so much of its conference is also ranked?
I think we're at a point where this is both unnecessary and motivated reasoning. Alabama looks good by itself. The rest of the conference looks good because of Alabama. If the SEC looks like garbage without Alabama, it's because it is.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Miami was fun while it lasted. The Hurricanes were the AP No. 10 two weeks ago. It now has just 69 points, nominally the No. 27 team in the country.
- Boise State shrunk the gap between it and Houston. Last week's Poll Watch noted it was conceivable a one-loss Houston could get into the New Year's Six over an undefeated Boise State. Houston's lead over Boise State shrunk from 111 points to 72 points.
- Baylor is a top ten team for which almost everyone is skeptical. Its three highest votes are a No. 6 (Pat Caputo) and two No. 7s (Ross Dellenger and Tony Parks).
- North Carolina State appeared on three ballots.
