Three weeks into the college football season, the race for the College Football Playoff is as interesting as ever.
Multiple Group of Five teams have emerged as strong contenders for the lone G5 bid in the CFP with wins over Power Four teams, while other schools in the Big Ten and SEC continue to show they could be strong candidates for an at-large selection.
As we do every Tuesday throughout the season, we’ll look at the weekly CFP outlook based on the results available to us at a time, even if the data is limited.
To get started, here's how the 12-team CFP would be formatted if the season ended today, based on the latest Associated Press Top 25 Poll. For clarity, the top four seeds are given to the highest-ranked conference champions, and NIU is in the field because it's the highest ranked Group of Five team in the AP poll.
Here's what the 12-team Playoff would look like if based off of the AP's ranking this week. No change in which teams are in, but Texas gets a first round bye and Georgia gets NIU in the first round. pic.twitter.com/IZB6HfsmIw
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 15, 2024
And now, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Conference contenders: Ohio State, Oregon
Teams with a clear path to an at-large: Penn State, USC
Darkhorses: Nebraska, Iowa
Offense in dire need of fixing: Michigan
Darkest of darkhorses: Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana
Breakdown: Ohio State, Penn State, USC and Rutgers were off last week, so nothing has changed from those perspectives.
Oregon finally stopped playing with its food and looked like the juggernaut many analysts thought it could be in the offseason in a 49-14 dismantling of Oregon State. Now, we’ll see how consistent the Ducks can be as they begin Big Ten play in two weeks.
Davis Warren has thrown six interceptions in three games, so Michigan is riding with Alex Orji under center in what is essentially a must-win against USC this weekend. If the Trojans hand the Wolverines their second loss in four games, they’ll need to upset at least one of Oregon or Ohio State to have any chance to make the playoff.
Iowa may have a loss on the board already, but the Hawkeyes are averaging 32.3 points per game through three games, more than twice as many as they averaged a year ago.
Can anybody remember the last time a Nebraska vs. Illinois game had some meaningful stakes attached? Anyway, the schools face off on Friday, with the winner getting to continue their darkhorse campaign.
Indiana has blown out its first three opponents and looks like a new team under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. None of those three wins are anything to pound your chest about based on opponent quality, but it’s been a long time since the Hoosiers were comfortably dominating anyone multiple weeks in a row. They have a manageable three-game stretch against Charlotte, Maryland and Northwestern, and if Indiana comes out unscathed, things could get a little interesting.
SEC
Conference contenders: Georgia, Texas
Teams with a path to an at-large: Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Darkhorses: LSU
Breakdown: Georgia certainly looked beatable against Kentucky, but it’s not like anybody thinks the Bulldogs aren’t still serious contenders for the conference title.
Texas continued to look like world-beaters, albeit against a lackluster UTSA team. With Quinn Ewers out temporarily with an abdominal injury, the Arch Manning hype will only grow larger.
Alabama cleaned Wisconsin’s clock in Madison last weekend, but it’s fair to wonder if that game is more competitive if Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke doesn’t get injured. In any case, both the Crimson Tide and Georgia have off weeks in preparation to face each other on Sept. 28.
Both Ole Miss and Tennessee haven’t played anyone to write home about (considering NC State appears to have been very overrated), but the Rebels and Volunteers are consistently shredding teams. On the other hand, Oklahoma has looked uninspired in wins against Houston and Tulane and face the daunting task of slowing down the Vols this weekend.
LSU probably should be off this list considering it was a small miracle the Tigers beat South Carolina, but they have the offensive firepower to hang with most teams in the league.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami, Clemson
Darkhorse conference contenders: Louisville, Syracuse
Darkest of darkhorses: Pittsburgh, Cal
Breakdown: Miami is clearly the cream of the crop in the ACC and has dusted all three of its opponents to this point. Clemson was off last week but should be able to handle N.C. State at home handily on Saturday.
Louisville is probably the biggest threat of non-Miami or Clemson teams to win the conference, followed by Syracuse with a manageable schedule. Pittsburgh can be renamed the heart attack kids after erasing double-digit deficits two weeks in a row. Cal already has a win against Auburn under its belt and now has a chance to finish off what’s essentially the rotting carcass of Florida State’s hopes and dreams this week.
Big 12
Conference contenders: Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State
Darkhorse conference contenders: UCF
Breakdown: Three weeks into the season, it would be surprising if the Big 12 champion was anyone other than these five considering Kansas is arguably the most disappointing team not named Florida State so far and Arizona looked overmatched against Kansas State.
Utah and Oklahoma State face off in a pivotal conference game Saturday, each of which has a giant question mark. For the Utes, it’s the health of Cam Rising. For the Cowboys, it’s a surprisingly lackluster running game. The winner of the contest will have a huge advantage toward securing a conference championship game appearance if nothing else.
Kansas State and Iowa State are both talented and well-coached and could be giant factors in the conference race.
UCF erased a double-digit road deficit against TCU and while the Golden Knights remain extreme playoff longshots, the schedule does set up well for them to take a swing at it.
Group of Five
Teams with a path to earn the G5 spot: Northern Illinois, Boise State, Liberty, Memphis, Toledo, Coastal Carolina
Breakdown: The Group of Five playoff spot race has spiced up a little bit.
Both Northern Illinois and Toledo have picked up impressive Power Four victories. NIU’s was admirable considering the opponent (Notre Dame), and Toledo’s turned heads just because it flat-out kicked Mississippi State’s ass. But the MAC always seems to cannibalize each other. Those two play each other on Oct. 19 and assuming both keep a high standard of play before then, it may be the Group of Five game of the year.
Boise State likely has to win out to be considered, but assuming Oregon has rounded into form, a close loss against a team in the field would help the Broncos’ argument.
Memphis took down Florida State 20-12 but the quality of that win could lessen by the week, as there’s a real chance the Seminoles might not make a bowl game. Memphis has South Florida and Tulane left on its schedule which are far from gimmes, but it would be hard to leave an undefeated team out of the playoff with a Power Four win.
Liberty continues to have a soft schedule made for an undefeated season, but the best bet for the Flames is the competition in the MAC, Mountain West and Memphis suffering multiple losses. If any of those teams equal Liberty’s record, the Flames have no chance. They still might not if they’re undefeated and one of those teams has only lost once in a close game.
Coastal Carolina seems like the Sun Belt’s best shot at a Group of Five CFP bid, but it's definitely the darkhorse of this group.
If they win out, probably in
Notre Dame looked like a completely different team in its 66-7 dismantling of Purdue than the one who somehow lost to Northern Illinois. Scoring 66 points is a victory in itself considering how lifeless the offense looked the first two weeks, but with no conference championship to win, the Fighting Irish can’t slip up the rest of the way if they want to maintain their playoff hopes.
