Ohio State plays its first-ever home College Football Playoff game tonight.
#9 Tennessee
Volunteers
In the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, Ohio State will be the last of four teams to host a first-round game. Buckeye Nation finally gets the marquee home night game it’s been clamoring for as a day that begins with College GameDay on campus ends with the Buckeyes playing Tennessee inside Ohio Stadium with an 8 p.m. kickoff.
Everything is on the line for the Buckeyes as their quest for a national championship will either continue with a trip to the Rose Bowl to play Oregon in the quarterfinals or end with a loss on Saturday night. That amplifies every question surrounding the Buckeyes and the need for its best players to play at their best against a Volunteer squad that ranks in the top 10 nationally on both offense and defense.
With all of that in mind, we break down our biggest questions entering Saturday night’s CFP game, highlight our top players to watch and make some predictions for what we’ll see in the Shoe.
Questions
Will Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have a better game plan?
We've touched on this point so much we don't need to delve into it at length, but I'm sure the memo has gotten out to everyone in scarlet and gray: More feeding Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, less running right into elite defensive linemen with a makeshift offensive line.
– Garrick Hodge
Will the offensive line play well enough for Ohio State to win?
We’ve written a lot about this question, too, but would be remiss not to mention it again here as it could be the game-defining question for the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s offensive line is by far the biggest position group of concern entering the CFP, especially on the interior, where the Buckeyes are entertaining the possibility of a guard rotation with Luke Montgomery entering the lineup at left guard.
No one should realistically expect the offensive line to be dominant against a Tennessee defensive line that’s been one of the best in the country, but it needs to at least hold up well enough that Will Howard has time to throw the ball downfield and the Buckeyes can run the ball in short-yardage and red-zone situations. If it can’t do that, Ohio State could be in for another rough day offensively like it had against Michigan.
– Dan Hope
How much impact will the weather have?
As forecasts for Saturday call for temperatures that will feel below 20 degrees, both teams' acclimation to cold-weather football will be tested. Both Ohio State and Tennessee have said they'll be prepared, but the hits will be felt more and physicality will be required in the Shoe.
– Andy Anders
Will Ohio State capitalize on sack opportunities?
While most of the questions entering this game have been focused on the offense, one area where the Buckeyes’ defense needs to step up is sacking the quarterback. A common thread in Ohio State’s two losses this season has been that the Buckeyes got zero sacks in either game. But there should be sack opportunities available against Tennessee, which has allowed 26 sacks this season, including nine combined sacks in its two losses to Arkansas (four) and Georgia (five).
Whether Ohio State’s sack numbers are closer to what they’ve been for Tennessee’s opponents in the Volunteers’ previous losses or the goose egg the Buckeyes have posted in their two previous losses could be a factor in whether or not Ohio State wins a close game.
– Dan Hope
How will Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr. hold up in coverage?
Because Tennessee’s offensive scheme places the Volunteers’ wide receivers near the sideline, Ohio State’s cornerbacks will be asked to defend a lot of green grass (or turf) in the matchup. Outside of the Oregon game, Burke has been solid in coverage this season. So has Igbinosun, though we can chalk him down for at least one pass interference in this one. Earlier this week, Jim Knowles said he is confident in Burke, Igbinosun and Mathews, who has been a consistent part of the cornerback rotation in the second half of the year. We will soon learn if Knowles’ faith will be rewarded as the trio performs against Nico Iamaleava and a talented Tennessee receiving corps.
– Chase Brown
Players to Watch
Will Howard
To this point, Howard has had kind of a weird year. Nobody is going to mistake him for C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields, but he's been incredibly efficient, posting six games with a 80 percent completion rate or higher. Yet, today is a legacy game for him too. If OSU drops the contest to Tennessee, Howard will not have beaten Michigan nor notched a single CFP win. From his tenor on Monday, I'm confident he doesn't want that to be his legacy.
– Garrick Hodge
Sonny Styles
Tennessee's wide splits and RPO game put a lot at the feet of opposing linebackers, but Styles has been Ohio State's most improved player as the season has gone on. His athleticism and background playing in space as a safety might be advantageous against a spread offense that enjoys taking wide splits to spread out defenses as much as possible. Styles leads the Buckeyes with 76 tackles this season.
– Andy Anders
Carnell Tate
Although he’s been overshadowed by Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate was quietly excellent in Ohio State’s second half of the regular season, catching 26 passes for 351 yards – both more than Egbuka – and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s last six games. As Ohio State looks to get its passing game going against the Volunteers, Tate will be a significant part of that effort, especially with the momentum he’s built entering the CFP.
Tennessee is already well aware of Tate’s talent, as the Volunteers made a big push for Tate in his recruitment before he ultimately committed to the Buckeyes, and I think he reminds them of that talent while making a statement to the nation with his biggest game on a big stage so far.
– Dan Hope
Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom
In the previous section, I asked how Burke, Igbinosun and Mathews would hold up in coverage against the Volunteers. In the same vein, I think it’s good to ask how Downs and Ransom will hold up assisting the cornerbacks in that endeavor. Downs and Ransom have been one of the best safety duos in college football this year, with the former being named a unanimous All-American and the latter earning first-team All-Big Ten honors. They will need to perform to that stand, both in coverage and in tackling, for Ohio State’s defense to slow down the fast-paced Tennessee offense on Saturday.
– Chase Brown
Predictions
Will Howard sets a season-high in pass attempts
Before I wrote this section, I wanted to write that Howard would set a career-high in pass attempts, but then I saw that number is 48 from Kansas State’s game against Iowa State last season, so I’ve decided to go with a season-high total instead. The most passes Howard has thrown in a game for Ohio State is 35 against Oregon. Howard completed 28 of 35 throws for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the contest. He also ran the ball nine times for 13 yards and a score. If Howard has a similar box score contribution against Tennessee, the Buckeyes could win the game comfortably against the Volunteers.
– Chase Brown
Ohio State’s defense will make three red-zone stops
One thing Ohio State has been able to count on all season is its defense stepping up in the red zone, even in its biggest games of the year. Oregon, Penn State and Michigan were each held without touchdowns in three of their respective trips to the red zone against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes lead the nation in both opposing red-zone touchdown percentage (34.5%) and scoring percentage (55.2%). I expect the Buckeyes to bow up inside the 20-yard line again and hold the Volunteers to field goal attempts or turnovers on downs on a majority of their trips inside the red zone with a loud Ohio Stadium crowd making plenty of noise behind them.
– Dan Hope
The game is a rock fight
I think points will be at a premium in this one. I have OSU surviving and pulling out a 21-17 win over the Vols, but this could double as a prediction that the under (46.5) is a good bet for this weekend.
– Garrick Hodge
Jeremiah Smith gets 100 receiving yards
Smith has emerged as one of the best receivers in college football as a true freshman, and it's time for Ohio State to rely on him to take over a game. While the defense holds Tennessee down, the Buckeyes should rely on Smith to make the plays they need on the offensive side of the football.
– Andy Anders
