We’ve got six weeks remaining in the college football regular season.
Conference races in all four power leagues are still tight, and the Group of Five contenders have some intriguing tests awaiting them as well.
One thing’s for sure, with the chaos that the sport has given us week in and week out, the race for the playoffs in late October and November is going to be intriguing and deliver some surprises along the way.
In the meantime, we’re back at it taking a look at the weekly CFP outlook based on the results available to us at the time. Two weeks from now, we won’t have to do much guesswork anymore, as the College Football Playoff committee will reveal their first rankings of the season.
But that’s in two weeks. For now, we’re making our own guess at what the playoff could look like at the end of the article. First, here’s what it would look like if we went off the Associated Press Top 25 Poll.
If the Week 9 AP Poll seeded the 12-team Playoff:
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 20, 2024
In: BYU
Out: Alabama! pic.twitter.com/3GUsC8U7Ri
Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Runaway favorite to get to Indy: Oregon (7-0 overall, 4-0 Big Ten)
Still formidable conference contenders: Ohio State (5-1, 2-1), Penn State (6-0, 3-0), Indiana (7-0, 4-0)
Could easily go 10-2: Illinois (6-1, 3-1)
Need to win out to make the playoff: Nebraska (5-2, 2-2), Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1)
Breakdown: Fresh off an emotional win on a short week, Oregon didn’t seem phased by a very bad Purdue team on the road whatsoever, winning handily. The Ducks’ toughest remaining game could be this week against Illinois, which is coming off a 14-point win against Michigan despite not playing overly well.
Oregon is a heavy favorite in that contest, but if you dare to dream of chaos and Illinois pulls off a stunner, we could be looking at a very realistic scenario where there’s a five-way tie for first place in the Big Ten. Assuming the Illini don't win, they'll have a manageable path to 10-2, but may need some help to qualify for the playoff because of a lack of a marquee win.
After an off week, Ohio State hopes to rebound from the Oregon loss against a reeling Nebraska squad before gearing up for a big showdown with Penn State next weekend, while the undefeated Nittany Lions spent their off week preparing for Wisconsin. Indiana has emerged as a legit College Football Playoff contender following a statement 56-7 win over the Cornhuskers last week. The Hoosiers’ showdown against the Buckeyes in Columbus could be massive, especially considering there’s a good chance they’ll come into that game 10-0.
Nebraska and Wisconsin still have a shot at the playoff if they win out, but their dreams will likely end this week as both would need massive upsets to pull off a win.
SEC
Play this week for the conference lead: LSU (6-1 overall, 3-0 SEC), Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0)
Still very much alive in the conference race: Texas (6-1, 2-1), Tennessee (6-1, 3-1), Georgia (6-1, 4-1)
Probably need to win out to get an at-large: Missouri (6-1, 2-1), Alabama (5-2, 2-2), Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2)
Breakdown: No undefeated teams remain in the SEC.
As you’d expect, there’s no shortage of possible outcomes here. The lone two undefeated teams in league play face off this week, with LSU traveling to face Texas A&M. The winner of that matchup will be in the driver’s seat for an SEC Championship Game appearance, with A&M having the slightly easier path.
Alabama and Missouri essentially play a loser-out game on Saturday, with the Crimson Tide having almost no shot of an at-large berth if they lose for a third time this season. Even if they win, they’ll have LSU awaiting them in a couple of weeks. Missouri looks like anything but a juggernaut right now, but if it upsets Alabama, there’s a clear path to an at-large berth and possibly even an SEC Championship Game appearance if it gets the right breaks. If it loses, it won’t have any remaining games to boost its strength of schedule to hope for an at-large berth, even if it finishes 10-2.
Vanderbilt has a chance to do the funniest thing ever again as it hosts Texas, but you’d expect the Longhorns will be prepared after suffering their first defeat of the season against Georgia. The Bulldogs found their mojo against Texas, but still have tough upcoming games against Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Volunteers are in good shape for a CFP berth and can even afford a loss against Georgia, but they still have to play Vanderbilt in Nashville, so finishing with two or fewer losses is far from a guarantee.
Georgia’s win was pretty big for Ole Miss in that it gives the Rebels the chance to add a marquee win to their resume in a few weeks, but Ole Miss needs to win out to stay alive for an at-large berth.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami (7-0 overall, 3-0 ACC), Clemson (6-1, 5-0)
Darkhorse conference contender: SMU (6-1, 3-0)
Darkest of darkhorses: Pittsburgh (6-0, 2-0), Syracuse (5-1, 2-1)
Breakdown: The story in the ACC remains pretty consistent this week with Miami and Clemson remaining heavy favorites to face off in the conference title game. SMU still could make things interesting if it holds serve and wins out considering the Mustangs’ remaining schedule is very manageable.
Pittsburgh still hasn’t fallen yet this season, and the Panthers have a pivotal contest on Thursday against Syracuse. Thursday’s contest is equally pivotal for Syracuse, as it needs to win out to have any prayer of making a dark horse run.
Big 12
The favorites to win the league: Iowa State (7-0 overall, 4-0 Big 12), BYU (7-0, 4-0)
Still alive: Kansas State (6-1, 3-1), Texas Tech (5-2, 3-1), Colorado (5-2, 3-1), Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1)
Breakdown: Iowa State and BYU somehow survived on last-minute wins and continued their undefeated campaigns. As such, both remain the favorites to appear in the Big 12 title game.
Kansas State, Texas Tech, Colorado and Cincinnati all have one conference loss so their dreams aren’t dead yet if any of them can run the table, but the next loss for any of them would make their postseason prospects grim.
Group of Five
Strong contenders for the G5 playoff spot: Boise State (5-1 overall, 2-0 Mountain West), UNLV (6-1 overall, 2-0 Mountain West), Liberty (5-0 overall, 3-0 Conference USA), Navy (6-0 overall, 4-0 American Athletic Conference), Army (7-0 overall, 6-0 American Athletic Conference)
Breakdown: We’ve got a pretty fun week coming up for Group of Five contenders.
First, we’ve got the Group of Five game of the year coming up on Friday, with Boise State traveling to Vegas to take on UNLV. A Heisman Trophy candidate vs. a team with multiple Power Four wins, doesn’t get much better than that. The winner will be the frontrunner for the Group of Five playoff spot.
That is unless Army or Navy have something to say about that. The clearest way for either of those two to get in is to beat Notre Dame. Navy is first up in drawing that task, with that matchup set for noon on Saturday.
Liberty’s best prayer is the committee ignores its eyes and picks the Flames to represent the Group of Five because they haven’t lost yet despite clearly being an inferior team to whoever wins the Mountain West championship or an armed forces squad. The MAC is pretty close to finished in the CFP race with no team having fewer than two losses already. The Sun Belt has a pair of one-loss teams (ULM Monroe and Louisiana) that would need to win out and get a bit of help to earn the playoff spot.
Memphis may be able to force its way back into the discussion here, but considering it’s already lost to Navy, there’s no point in worrying about that until it becomes more probable.
Notre Dame (6-1 overall)
Who would have thought despite playing USC and Florida State the Fighting Irish’s toughest remaining opponents are arguably service academy teams? We’ll see just how strong Notre Dame plays down the stretch, but the Fighting Irish are still in a good spot here and will likely be favored in each of their remaining games.
Playoff prediction
As always, if you don’t like the predictions, wait a week, they’ll change.
Conference champs
- No. 1 Oregon
- No. 2 Georgia
- No. 3 Miami
- No. 4 Iowa State
First-round
- No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner faces Iowa State)
- No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Tennessee (winner faces Miami)
- No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (winner faces Georgia)
- No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (winner faces Oregon)
First teams out
- LSU
- Clemson
- BYU
- Illinois
- SMU
Breakdown
Georgia moves to the SEC champion in this projection following its win over Texas, while the Longhorns slot in as the No. 6 seed. As we’ve said before, Ohio State can beat Oregon in a rematch in Indianapolis, but we need to let a few games play out first before we pick it here. For now, we have Ohio State as the No. 5 seed and Oregon as the No. 1 seed following a perfect regular season.
Penn State and Indiana both host games in this prediction; both come in at 11-1 on the season with their lone losses coming against Ohio State. Notre Dame gets an at-large berth by running the table but doesn’t host a playoff game considering its black eye from the Northern Illinois loss.
Texas A&M and Tennessee find their way into the CFP with two losses each, leaving a very flustered two-loss LSU out of the playoff field. The Aggies beat the Tigers head to head in this forecast so they needed a tiebreaker for LSU and Tennessee, so ultimately it came down to the committee deciding “Wait a minute Tigers, you lost to THAT USC team?” So it is written, so shall it (probably not) be done.
As for the Group of Five, we’re rolling on the Ashton Jeanty train as far as he’ll carry us (9.9 yards per carry, to be exact).
