We’re officially one week away from the College Football Playoff committee releasing their initial rankings ahead of the inaugural 12-team CFP.
This weekly article will finally have a lot less speculation once we have a data point for those rankings, but for one more week, let’s have at it.
Ohio State will either have a clear shot at a playoff berth or have its title hopes on life support depending on the results of this weekend’s contest against Penn State, but that’s nothing new to anyone who regularly frequents this site.
For now, we’re examining the weekly CFP outlook based on the results we have.
Per usual, at the end of the article, we’ll make our own guess at what the playoff could look like. For now, here’s what it would look like if we went off the Associated Press Top 25 Poll.
If the Week 10 AP Poll seeded the 12-team Playoff:
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 27, 2024
Out: LSU, Iowa State
In: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
BYU moves into 4-seed pic.twitter.com/SiVyvfwOcL
Before we get to our projections, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are still subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP format is five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Runaway favorite to get to Indy: Oregon (8-0 overall, 5-0 Big Ten)
Still formidable conference contenders: Ohio State (6-1, 3-1), Penn State (7-0, 4-0), Indiana (8-0, 5-0)
Needs to win out to have a chance to make the playoff: Illinois (6-2, 3-2)
Breakdown: Ohio State at Penn State is obviously the game of the week in the conference, though both have serious injury questions ahead of the contest. Should Penn State win, it would have a clear path to an undefeated regular season. If Ohio State wins, it should feel confident of getting an at-large berth at worst and will keep its hopes of a conference title alive.
Penn State has less to lose from this game, as a loss would still set the Nittany Lions up for an 11-1 finish. A loss for the Buckeyes puts their playoff hopes on life support, but they’d still have a chance to add a marquee win against Indiana.
Speaking of Indiana, down its starting quarterback, the Hoosiers kept on dominating, beating Washington by multiple scores. Indiana should get Kurtis Rourke back this week against Michigan State, as a possible dream season for the Hoosiers continues.
Oregon looks like a clear-cut killing machine at the top of the Big Ten and has found its stride. The Ducks dismantled Illinois 38-9 on Saturday, making a Big Ten title appearance all the more likely.
Illinois, on the other hand, needs to win out to at least have a shot of earning an at-large selection, but it might need some more chaos to happen since its resume will lack a quality win and the Oregon game wasn’t close.
SEC
Lone undefeated team in SEC play: Texas A&M (7-1 overall, 5-0 SEC)
Teams still very much alive in the conference race: LSU (6-2, 3-1), Texas (7-1, 3-1), Tennessee (6-1, 3-1), Georgia (6-1, 4-1)
Probably need to win out to have a chance: Alabama (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2)
Breakdown: Texas A&M won the pivotal matchup against LSU last week and now has a clear path to the SEC championship game, though playing South Carolina on the road could certainly be a trap game. Can you imagine the atmosphere at Kyle Field if the Aggies win out through the final week of the regular season when they’re scheduled to host Texas?
Speaking of Texas, the Longhorns did what Alabama could not and beat Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Longhorns finish their season with contests against Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
LSU’s toughest remaining game will come in two weeks against Alabama in what essentially will be a loser-out game for both squads. If the Tigers win, they could feasibly still play for an SEC title depending on how tiebreakers play out.
Tennessee and Georgia both were off last week and both play opponents at home they should beat Saturday. Ole Miss needs to win out to have a chance of making an at-large berth, with a game against Georgia looming next week.
ACC
Conference contenders: Miami (8-0 overall, 4-0 ACC), Clemson (6-1, 5-0)
Darkhorse conference contenders: Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0), SMU (7-1, 4-0)
Breakdown: The game of the week in the ACC is Pittsburgh against SMU, with both squads holding undefeated conference records heading into the contest. This is by far SMU’s toughest remaining game, while Pittsburgh has a showdown with Clemson on Nov. 16.
Clemson’s toughest remaining conference game is against Pittsburgh, but it might face some resistance against Lousiville this week. Miami has Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse remaining on the docket, so it’s not impossible the Hurricanes finish the regular season undefeated.
Big 12
The favorites to win the league: Iowa State (7-0 overall, 4-0 Big 12), BYU (8-0, 5-0)
Still alive: Kansas State (7-1, 4-1), Colorado (6-2, 4-1)
Breakdown: Iowa State and BYU remain the frontrunners to face off in the Big 12 title game, though you can’t count out Kansas State quite yet either.
You can never assume anything in this season of college football, especially with a road matchup against rival Utah coming on Nov. 9, but the Cougars have a breeze of a final four games remaining with Kansas, Arizona State and Houston rounding out the schedule.
Between Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Kansas State, Iowa State has a couple of difficult remaining games on the schedule. For the Wildcats, if they simply win out they’ll be in a good spot to make the conference title game.
There might be Prime Time fatigue around Colorado, but you can’t rule out the Buffs quite yet. Colorado will need some help, though, and will need to both win out and have both Kansas State and one of Iowa State and BYU to lose at least once to have a shot of making the title game.
Group of Five
Strong contenders for the G5 playoff spot: Boise State (6-1 overall, 3-0 Mountain West), UNLV (6-2 overall, 2-1 Mountain West), Army (7-0 overall, 6-0 American Athletic Conference)
Breakdown: Now that Liberty is officially eliminated with a loss, I think the fairest way to explain the race for the Group of Five spot is to only include Boise State, UNLV and Army until any of them falter again.
Boise State is the clear favorite for the Group of Five spot, but if it lost a rematch to UNLV in the Mountain West title, the Runnin’ Rebels might still get the nod for the playoffs even with two losses.
I always thought Army was better equipped to beat Notre Dame than Navy was, but considering the trashing the Fighting Irish gave Navy, maybe neither are. If Army can somehow win that contest, though, it would become the frontrunner for the Group of Five CFP spot.
Notre Dame (7-1 overall)
The Fighting Irish have a clearer runway to the CFP by the week, with perhaps only ranked Army standing in their way of securing one of the seven at-large spots unless USC decides to show up in the last week.
Playoff prediction
Conference champs
- No. 1 Oregon
- No. 2 Georgia
- No. 3 Miami
- No. 4 BYU
First-round
- No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner faces BYU)
- No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Tennessee (winner faces Miami)
- No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (winner faces Georgia)
- No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (winner faces Oregon)
First teams out
- LSU
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- Illinois
- Pittsburgh
Breakdown
I usually say if you don’t like the predictions, wait a week; they’ll change. But with Texas A&M beating LSU, Boise State besting UNLV and everyone else holding serve, the only change I have from last week is a new Big 12 champion because I’m feeling a little better about BYU than I am about Iowa State considering the easier path to the title game. But don’t fret. These predictions are sure to change more drastically next Tuesday once we have actual CFP rankings.
