This is a list of how much a team controls its own destiny for the playoffs, not the likelihood they make the playoffs, according to 538.

Total Destiny (99%+):

• Georgia
• Ohio State
• Michigan
• TCU

Almost Destiny (90-99%):

No teams.

Should be in (75-90%)

• USC
• LSU

Good Chance (50-75%):

• Clemson
• Tennessee 

There's a Chance (25-50%):

• Utah
• UNC
• Oregon

I expect Georgia and one of Ohio State/Michigan to run the table. Lock up 2 spots. I think Tennessee also makes it (unless LSU beats Georgia). So one spot up for grabs:

If TCU slips, USC is on deck. If USC slips as well, Clemson could be sitting pretty. However, they have a reasonable chance of losing a game. At that point I think the loser of the Ohio State/Michigan game sneaks in for an SEC East/Big Ten East playoff. 

Realistically I don't see UNC, Utah, or Oregon getting in barring total collapse from the Big Ten teams or SEC teams.

In the Big Ten/SEC showdown, I figure the winner of The Game gets the 2 spot. The loser will take the 4 and face Georgia. If the unthinkable happens and the Big Ten wins both games, we have a real possibility of an Ohio State - Michigan National Title!