Not the trajectory we wanted to see this team finish on, but admittedly it’s tough to weigh losing 4 straight vs. playing two 1-seeds, a 2-seed, and what on paper should be a lighter test against an unranked team instead being a road trip to East Lansing.
1. Ohio State is the 4th best team in a tremendously deep Big Ten conference. Arguing 5th might be fair given the seeding and the season sweep at the hands of Purdue, but on paper and in the eyes of the committee, OSU would be viewed as the superior team despite those results ...we’ll likely find out definitively with a third meeting this week.
2. OSU can compete with the top teams in the conference. 1-1 vs Illinois, 1-1 vs Iowa, and a loss to TTUN in a back and forth game. Zero question there.
3. This team struggles tremendously to close out games. Today’s loss to Illinois ending in 3+ minutes without scoring while conceding a 9-0 run was not a new script by ANY stretch. We’ve seen this movie several times this year from Northwestern to Purdue to Michigan to MSU to today. The concerning part is that we aren’t talking about a single missed attempt at a game-winner in these games, but rather 3-4 minutes to close of no offense generating quality looks and little to no scoring as heavily-contested and I’ll-advised shots are heaved at the rim. Personally, I’m concerned this is a product of both player decisions and of coaching failing to generate good looks and to control the game.
4. This team has the potential to make a deep tournament run but also has the potential to lose to a 10 seed. We’ve seen this team beat Illinois and Iowa and take Michigan to the wire when clicking on all cylinders; we’ve also seen this team choke against Northwestern and struggle against Penn State.
5. This team has both out-performed and under-performed expectations - if that’s possible. Few if any projected OSU to be in the 1-seed discussion in March. Had a 68-64 lead held up, that’s where they’d be sitting tonight. The loss accounted for, few projected a 2 or 3 seed either. No one expected a trio of wins at Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. However, the cost of success is high expectations and the aforementioned wins left ambitions of at least a 2-2 finish in this tough stretch to close out with 3 home games (even despite the outstanding competition). Overall, this team certainly overachieved - they simply came back down a step toward reality down the stretch.
6. The lack of fans undoubtedly had an impact. Take away Covid and fill the arenas for this outstanding Big Ten season and we likely trade wins at Iowa and Illinois for losses and losses against Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois at home for wins. Yes, our end-of-game execution (or lack there of) would still have loomed as an issue but I think the advantage of the crowd would have pushed our late leads higher before those closing minutes and the Bucks would have held on. The flip side being that crowds at Iowa and Illinois likely would have added momentum to the runs for those teams.
7. This team has been a lot of fun to follow ...while also maddening at times. Ultimately from Young’s work ethic to Liddell’s style to damn near every guy on the squad, this team is tremendously like-able. At the same time, despite this team’s impressive resume and earned 3-seed or better status, I can’t recall many times this season where I’ve felt assured of victory even against weaker opposition. This team has wreaked havoc on my nerves but has been fun to follow.
Looking forward to the BTT and March Madness and wishing this team the success they’ve worked so hard for!
