It has been a couple of years since I published this analysis of opponent-adjusted Ohio State statistics. The eve of the Rose Bowl rematch against Oregon is as good a time as any to reveal the 2024 stats.
Based on standard season statistical rankings, Ohio State fields the top-ranked defense and respectable offensive ranking. Oregon posts consistently respectable rankings on either side of scrimmage. We are familiar with those standard rankings.
| OSU Off Rank |
OSU Off per Game |
Ore Def Rank |
Ore Def per Game |
OSU Def Rank |
OSU Def per Game |
Ore Off Rank |
Ore Off per Game |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring | 12 | 36.0 | 12 | 17.8 | 1 | 11.4 | 13 | 35.9 |
| Total Yards | 30 | 427.3 | 10 | 301.8 | 1 | 242.2 | 14 | 449.8 |
| Rushing | 55 | 168.2 | 33 | 126.1 | 8 | 101.1 | 52 | 171.8 |
| Passing | 34 | 259.2 | 9 | 175.7 | 1 | 141.2 | 14 | 278.0 |
In my opinion, standard rankings have two flaws. First, they disregard the quality of opponents that teams have played throughout the season. To correct this, I evaluate the team performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages. Second, they include game action that occurs outside of the normal flow of offense v. defense. For this, I make several correcting adjustments. One, I exclude special teams production. Two, I reduce offensive stats to factor scores made by the defense and for possessions that start inside the red zone. Three, I similarly adjust defensive stats to factor scores made against the offense (e.g., Howard’s pick-6 against Penn State) and for possessions that begin inside the red zone (e.g., Michigan’s touchdown). When drives start in the red zone, I reduce field goal equivalent points.
I do not adjust for “garbage time” production. While I can make a guess at what qualifies as garbage time for Ohio State, I do not have the familiarity, judgment, or patience to undertake that complexity for evaluating opponent statistics for the entire season.
| OSU O v Ore D |
OSU Offense v Oppts Avg D |
OSU Offense |
OSU Opponents Avg Def |
Oregon D v Oppts Avg O |
Ore Defense |
Oregon Opponents Avg Off |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scoring | |||||||
| per game | 0.89 | 1.46 | 32.7 | 22.4 | 0.61 | 16.7 | 27.7 |
| per play | 0.94 | 1.49 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.63 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| rushing | |||||||
| per game | 1.07 | 1.29 | 168.2 | 134.2 | 0.83 | 126.1 | 152.7 |
| per carry | 1.17 | 1.31 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 0.89 | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| passing | |||||||
| per game | 0.97 | 1.28 | 259.2 | 202.4 | 0.76 | 175.7 | 232.1 |
| per attempt | 1.10 | 1.34 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 0.82 | 5.8 | 7.4 |
| per completion | 1.04 | 1.13 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 0.92 | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| completion % | 1.05 | 1.19 | 71.2 | 60.3 | 0.88 | 55.1 | 63.5 |
Ratios greater than 1 in the first column indicate OSU offense has advantage; ratios less than 1 indicate Oregon defense has advantage.
Neither team appears to have a significant advantage when Ohio State’s offense faces the Oregon defense. In the prior matchup with Oregon, Ohio State’s 31 points and 467 yards showed that the Buckeyes offense was productive against the Ducks’ D. That production exceeded the average success rates against Oregon and exceeded the average production for Ohio State.
| OSU D v Ore O |
OSU Defense v Oppts Avg O |
OSU Defense |
OSU Opponents Avg Off |
Oregon O v Oppts Avg D |
Ore Offense |
Ore Opponents Avg Def |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCORING | |||||||
| PER GAME | 0.48 | 0.35 | 9.9 | 28.8 | 1.37 | 33.2 | 24.3 |
| PER PLAY | 0.49 | 0.36 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.35 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| RUSHING | |||||||
| PER GAME | 0.80 | 0.62 | 101.1 | 164.1 | 1.29 | 171.8 | 133.6 |
| PER CARRY | 0.82 | 0.65 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 1.26 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| PASSING | |||||||
| PER GAME | 0.83 | 0.67 | 141.1 | 211.8 | 1.24 | 278.0 | 224.7 |
| PER ATTEMPT | 0.93 | 0.74 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 1.26 | 8.6 | 7.1 |
| PER COMPLETION | 0.85 | 0.80 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 1.06 | 11.8 | 11.4 |
| COMPLETION % | 1.09 | 0.92 | 58.7 | 62.7 | 1.18 | 73.2 | 62.4 |
Ratios less than 1 in the first column indicate OSU defense has advantage; ratios greater than 1 indicate Oregon offense has advantage.
Ohio State’s defense appears to have the significant advantage when the Silver Bullets defend against Oregon. In their October matchup, Ohio State was unable to stop big plays, but that remains the only game that the Silver Bullets did not hold their opponent well below their seasonal production. If the adjustments to Knowles’ defensive scheme hold true to form, the Buckeyes should successfully constrain the Ducks.
All statistics and data gathered from https://www.sports-reference.com.
