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Analyzing the 7/18 247 Composite Rating Update

+20 HS
datanut's picture
July 21, 2022 at 3:32am
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I decided to take a stab at analyzing the 7/18/22 recruiting rating update(s) on 247. Specfically I looked at how players' 247 Composite Rating changed and how this in turn affected team recruiting stats. The way I got this data was by looking at player rating history pages (here is Brandon Inniss's page). From these pages I got a recruit's current rating (after the 7/18/22 update) and compared it to their most recent rating before the update and calculated the difference (rating delta). Also disclaimer Team Scores might be off by 0.01 or so; I wasn't quite able to get it the exact same as the score on the 247 website when trying to re-create them but this is pretty pretty close. Regardless, here's what the player deltas are for Ohio State's current 2023 class:

Ohio State 2023 Class Rating Update Breakdown
Recruit Name Current Comp. Rating Previous Comp. Rating Rating Delta
Brandon Inniss 0.9887 0.9897 -0.0010
Noah Rogers 0.9827 0.9769 0.0058
Carnell Tate 0.9819 0.9858 -0.0039
Luke Montgomery 0.9792 0.9806 -0.0014
Jason Moore 0.9768 0.9761 0.0007
Dijon Johnson 0.9543 0.9541 0.0002
Jelani Thurman 0.9458 0.9405 0.0053
Ty Lockwood 0.9393 0.9410 -0.0017
Calvin Simpson-Hunt 0.9341 0.9287 0.0054
Malik Hartford 0.9326 0.9352 -0.0026
Kayin Lee 0.9279 0.9374 -0.0095
Joshua Padilla 0.9251 0.9268 -0.0017
Jermaine Mathews 0.9175 0.8956 0.0219
Austin Siereveld 0.9148 0.9178 -0.0030
Mark Fletcher 0.9148 0.9179 -0.0031
Cedrick Hawkins 0.9147 0.9196 -0.0049
Bryson Rodgers 0.9090 0.9087 0.0003
Will Smith 0.8853 0.8853 0
Miles Walker 0.8842 0.8842 0
SUM     +0.0068

Overall the top 5 boosts went to Jermaine Mathews (0.0219), Noah Rogers (0.0058), Calvin Simpson-Hunt (0.0054), Jelani Thurman (0.0053), and Jason Moore (0.0007). The top 5 decreases went to Kayin Lee (-0.0095), Cedrick Hawkins (-0.0049), Carnell Tate (-0.0039), Mark Fletcher (-0.0031), and Austin Siereveld (-0.0030). Overall Ohio State gained 0.0068 recruit rating points as a result of the ratings update. Ohio State's Team Score went up from 285.59 to 286.13 (a 0.1898% increase).

I decided to take a look at how the top 20 recruiting teams got impacted by the rating update. Here's a breakdown of how the ratings update affected the entire top 20 teams (top/bottom 3 teams in the last two columns are highlighted):

7/18 Comp. Rating Update Effect on Team Scores
Rank Team Previous Team Score Current Team Score Team Score Percent Change Comp. Rating Points Delta
1 Ohio State 285.59 286.13 +0.1898% +0.0068
2 Notre Dame 285.26 285.36 +0.0343% +0.0016
3 Penn State 260.26 262.41 +0.8244% +0.0328
4 Clemson 260.22 260.66 +0.1698% +0.0112
5 Texas 260.00 259.71 -0.1125% -0.0051
6 Georgia 250.50 250.99 +0.1920% +0.0052
7 Tennessee 249.91 249.86 -0.0202% +0.0021
8 LSU 244.83 247.01 +0.8892% +0.0238
9 Oklahoma 240.31 243.14 +1.1758% +0.0310
10 Miami 243.47 242.88 -0.2437% -0.0035
11 Alabama 236.08 237.44 +0.5737% +0.0171
12 Arkansas 235.32 234.55 -0.3244% -0.0033
13 USC 222.64 221.18 -0.6559% -0.0149
14 Baylor 215.69 218.01 +1.0774% +0.0239
15 Cincinnati 214.59 213.46 -0.5248% -0.0126
16 Texas Tech 209.16 209.97 +0.3879% +0.0153
17 Louisville 210.12 209.09 -0.4936% -0.0079
18 Northwestern 206.14 207.01 +0.4219% +0.0090
19 North Carolina 205.64 206.11 +0.2326% +0.0048
20 Iowa 206.07 205.96 -0.0544% -0.0011

The 3 teams with the largest percent change in their Team Score were Oklahoma (1.1758%), Baylor (1.0774%), and LSU (0.8892%). 3 teams with the largest percent decreases were USC (-0.6559%), Cincinnati (-0.5248%), and Louisville (-0.4936%).

The 3 teams with the largest overall player rating delta were Oklahoma (0.0310), Penn State (0.0308), and Baylor (0.0239). 3 teams with the largest negative overall player rating deltas were USC (-0.0149), Cincinnati (-0.0126), and Louisville (-0.0079).

I really expected Alabama and Georgia to have a higher boost, but that's not what I am seeing when looking at the numbers. Same goes for us - I thought we originally went down in rating in fact.

 

At this point I was interested in seeing the 20 biggest risers and fallers within the top 20 teams from this latest rating update so here is that information.

Top 20 Risers in Top 20 Teams From Rating Update
Rank Recruit Name Team Current Rating Previous Rating Rating Delta
1 Austin Novosad Baylor 0.9353 0.9102 0.0251
2 King Mack Penn State 0.9319 0.9092 0.0227
3 Samuel Omosigho Oklahoma 0.9236 0.9014 0.0222
4 Jermaine Mathews Ohio State 0.9175 0.8956 0.0219
5 Daniel Sill Texas Tech 0.8801 0.8656 0.0145
6 Sydir Mitchell Texas 0.9164 0.9027 0.0137
7 Jordan Knox Northwestern 0.8938 0.8802 0.0136
8 Daylen Austin LSU 0.9466 0.9338 0.0128
9 Raylen Wilson Georgia 0.9771 0.9645 0.0126
10 Whit Weeks LSU 0.8863 0.8747 0.0116
11 Noble Johnson Clemson 0.9043 0.8935 0.0108
12 Conrad Hussey Penn State 0.9064 0.8958 0.0106
13 Dawshawn Womack LSU 0.9608 0.9505 0.0103
14 Kaleb Jackson LSU 0.9334 0.9233 0.0101
15 Nick Fattig Texas Tech 0.8667 0.8567 0.0100
16 Christian Gray Notre Dame 0.9630 0.9542 0.0088
17 Isaiah Augustave Arkansas 0.8852 0.8767 0.0085
18 Jaybron Harvey North Carolina 0.9324 0.9245 0.0079
19 Cayden Green Oklahoma 0.9626 0.9551 0.0075
20 Yhonzae Pierre Alabama 0.9393 0.9320 0.0073

Some players who stuck out to me were Jermaine Mathews, Baylor QB commit Austin Novosad, Texas DT commit Sydir Mitchel, Georgia LB commit Raylen Wilson, and Notre Dame CB commit Christian Gray.

Top 20 Fallers in Top 20 Teams From Rating Update
Rank Recruit Name Team Current Rating Previous Rating Rating Delta
1 Kayin Lee Ohio State 0.9279 0.9374 -0.0095
2 Luke Hasz Arkansas 0.9522 0.9611 -0.0089
3 Drayk Bowen Notre Dame 0.9555 0.9635 -0.0080
4 Michael Daugherty LSU 0.8997 0.9069 -0.0072
5 Troy Bowles Georgia 0.9732 0.9797 -0.0065
6 Daylan Smothers Oklahoma 0.9119 0.9182 -0.0063
7 Chandavian Bradley Tennessee 0.9774 0.9836 -0.0062
8 Trey Holly LSU 0.9105 0.9162 -0.0057
t9 Mac Markway LSU 0.9309 0.9363 -0.0054
t9 Braxton Myers USC 0.9260 0.9314 -0.0054
T9 Daeh McCullough Cincinnati 0.9117 0.9171 -0.0054
12 Adonijah Green Louisville 0.9028 0.9080 -0.0052
13 Trevor Carter Cincinnati 0.8895 0.8946 -0.0051
T14 Caleb Herring Tennessee 0.9625 0.9675 -0.0050
T14 Tomarrion Parker Penn State 0.9577 0.9627 -0.0050
T14 Micah Tease Arkansas 0.9293 0.9343 -0.0050
T14 Isaiah Crawford Texas Tech 0.9281 0.9331 -0.0050
18 Cedrick Hawkins Ohio State 0.9147 0.9196 -0.0049
19 Nigel Glover Northwestern 0.8958 0.9004 -0.0046
20 Aaron Williams Louisville 0.9338 0.9383 -0.0045

Note: Tiebreakers were determined by current recruit rating [tie went to the higher rated recruit(s)]

Some players who stuck out to me were our commits (Kayin Lee and Cedrick Hawkins), Georgia LB commit Troy Bowles, and Northwestern LB/S commit Nigel Glover. Not really sure why Kayin saw that much of a decrease in rating.

I'm really interested to see what everyone thinks about these findings. I know the team scores and total recruit ratings haven't changed too significantly, but it was still interesting to see what specific teams had higher boosts. I know people were interested in seeing if particular teams get boosted more so I wanted to see if there was some truth to that for this past rating update. Additionally, if anyone has any insights on why some of these players rose/fell that would be great!

Also I know this post would've been a little more interesting a couple days ago; just got a little lazy writing so apologies lol. And as always, please let me know if you notice anything incorrect; I tried my best to double check my work. Go Bucks!

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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