It is safe to say that Ohio State's 2015 basketball season has not gone all according to plan.
When the season began, the Buckeyes were a senior-driven team that would use zone defense to frustrate opponents. Three months later, the zone has been scrapped for man-to-man and a freshman, D'Angelo Russell, is the primary creator.
Ohio State's three rotation big men (Amir Williams, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee) have become afterthoughts over the past few games. Freshmen Jae'Sean Tate and Kam Williams have stepped up. Shannon Scott, who was red hot to start the season, is sharing the point guard duties with Russell. And the changes have worked: Ohio State played its best game of the season with the new lineup, defeating No. 23 Indiana on Sunday.
This is not the first time Thad Matta has overhauled his team in unexpected ways. Over the years, he has adjusted lineups, thrown out strategies and turned to unexpected sources to salvage seasons. For the most part, his bold moves have worked.
2006: Depending on Dials
In Matta's first season, he took a sub-.500 team to 20 wins and a thrilling upset of No. 1 Illinois. Even so, he had his work cut out for him in 2005-2006. Terence Dials was the team's tallest player at 6-foot-9, and only two other rotation players (Ivan Harris and Matt Sylvester) were taller than 6-foot-5.
Ohio State had no hope of putting two forwards on the floor, so the Buckeyes adapted with a four out, one in strategy. Dials would be tethered to the basket, shooting and rebounding at close proximity. When he drew defenders close, he would whip the ball outside, where an guard would either shoot the ball, send it around the perimeter, or penetrate to the lane.
The small strategy worked remarkably well during the regular season. Ohio State won the Big Ten regular season title, and the Buckeyes earned a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Dials was named Big Ten Player of the Year, the first Buckeye since Scoonie Penn in 1999 to win award. Matta was named Big Ten Coach of the Year, proving that an Ohio State coach can win that award as long as it's not in football.
Once they got into the postseason, the strategy came apart. When the Buckeyes went cold from outside or faced a team with abnormal length, they couldn't do much of anything. The Buckeyes struggled with 15-seed Davidson in the round of 64, and Georgetown – led by 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert – crushed OSU in the second round.
2008: Coasting with Koufos
The Buckeyes were fantastic in 2007, winning 35 games and playing in the national championship game. In 2008, they had to account for mass departures: Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr., Ron Lewis, Ivan Harris, and Daequan Cook all left for greener pastures.
The saving grace for 2008 was that Matta had another strong freshman class coming in: Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, Evan Turner and Kosta Koufos. Unlike the previous year, though, the team failed to mesh.
Senior Jamar Butler and sophomore David Lighty were expected to be team leaders, and they were. Butler played 37 minutes a game and Lighty was the team's best defender, but Ohio State's young freshmen struggled mightily. Jon Diebler, now Ohio State's career leader for made three pointers, shot only 28% from deep. Turner was extremely turnover prone. Koufos, expected to clean up on the boards, preferred to stay on the perimeter than fight for rebounds.
With the team struggling, Matta eschewed depth and essentially played a six-man rotation for much of the season. Ohio State narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament, which might have provided the spark the team needed to coalesce. The Buckeyes rampaged through the NIT, defeating Massachusetts 92-85 in the final; the short rotation finally clicked, but too late.
2010: Excelling with Evan
After a forgettable 2009 season (eight-seed, lost in the round of 64), Evan Turner was established as the man around whom the offense revolved. Against Eastern Michigan in December, though, Turner fractured two vertebrae and was said to be out of action for eight weeks. The Buckeyes adjusted by... not doing very well, actually.
Ohio State struggled while he was gone, getting smoked by Butler, Wisconsin and Michigan. The top point guards (Jeremie Simmons and P.J. Hill) were offensively deficient, and Dallas Lauderdale was an unfinished product. When Turner returned a scant four weeks later, Matta abandoned the two point guards.
The Buckeyes had the shortest bench in the country in 2009-2010, and for good reason: Evan Turner-William Buford-Jon Diebler-David Lighty-Dallas Lauderdale was an accomplished starting five. Ohio State established a four out, one in set (with Turner as a slasher and Lighty as a defensive stopper) to strong results. The Buckeyes were Big Ten regular season and tournament champions, and a two seed in NCAA Tournament. Even though he missed six games, Turner was named National Player of the Year.
2013: Turning to Thomas
The Jared Sullinger era was spectacular. The Buckeyes were the best team in the country in 2011, suffering a fluky Sweet 16 exit. In 2012 they made it to the Final Four, being sunk when they went cold against Kansas. Without an All-American or even a streaky shooter like William Buford, the Buckeyes had to find a primary source of offense. The solution was Deshaun Thomas, and lots of him.
Thomas, nicknamed "The Microwave" for his ability to produce instant offense, had to be everything for Ohio State in 2013. He had the highest usage rate on the team, and during the regular season nobody else could be counted on to bring offense every night. He rarely turned the ball over, shot well from three-point range, drew fouls and rebounded. Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott were defensive dynamos, and Ohio State won 29 games.
Ohio State went as far as the Elite Eight, where they were stopped by Wichita State. Thomas had 21 points and postseason bloomer LaQuinton Ross had 19, but the Buckeyes shot 31% from the floor, and 20% from three-point range. Blame the Shockers for their defense or the Buckeyes for losing their nerve, but the Buckeyes needed more contributors to challenge for the national title.
2015: Sticking with Smallball?
It remains to be seen if Thad Matta will stick with smallball or give his big men one last chance to be difference makers. Ohio State has a relatively easy schedule to end conference play. Three games (vs. Maryland, at Michigan State, vs. Wisconsin) appear challenging, while the other seven appear winnable. In those games, Matta has some leeway for experimentation.
Should the Buckeyes take care of business against those seven teams, they would finish the regular season no worse than 23-8, 12-6 in conference. They would be short on quality wins, but their record would propel them into the NCAA Tournament.
At that point, everything becomes a crapshoot. And with a hot, dynamic star like D'Angelo Russell running the show, Matta could take this team farther than expected.
