Ohio State certainly has no time to sulk after suffering a 19-point loss Tuesday to Michigan State. The Buckeyes have another top-10 opponent coming to town Sunday in No. 8-ranked Iowa.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa (20-7. 11-4) | Value City Arena | 4 p.m. | CBS |
Both teams are playing for quite a bit. The Hawkeyes are still in the race for a Big Ten regular-season title and Ohio State is hoping to work itself into the Top 4 of the league standings and receive a double-bye in the conference tournament. A win would give the Buckeyes 11 victories in Big Ten play.
It's Ohio State's final regular-season home game and Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta is 9-2 in his career in Columbus during such occasions. Matta is also 7-2 in his career at home against the Hawkeyes.
Opponent Breakdown
Iowa was the talk of the college basketball world when it began 9-1 in the Big Ten and reached as high as No. 3 in the nation. But the Hawkeyes have since stumbled a bit and are reeling a little as March approaches.
Iowa has three losses in its last four games as it comes to Columbus on Sunday. The Hawkeyes lost their last two times out and are coming off a 67-59 home defeat at the hands of Wisconsin on Wednesday. To say Iowa may be playing with something to prove against the Buckeyes might be stating it lightly.
One of the most experienced teams in the country, the Hawkeyes start four seniors and one junior. The leader of that group is Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Jarrod Uthoff, who is averaging 18.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game. But what has made Iowa so good this season is the help Uthoff has received from one of the Big Ten's most improved players, junior Peter Jok. Jok is averaging 16.5 points per game and shooting 42 percent from 3-point range.
“We can’t let those two get going because if we do it’s going to be a long night for us," Ohio State redshirt sophomore guard Kam Williams said of Uthoff and Jok. "Just getting back quicker in transition because we watched film on Michigan State and it’s like once we scored they already had the ball out so we’ve got to be on our toes ready to play transition defense.”
With its recent struggles, Iowa now sits at No. 13 overall in KenPom's advanced statistical ratings. The Hawkeyes posses the nation's 14th-most efficient offense, but rank just 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
In addition to playing to improve its NCAA tournament seed, Iowa still has a shot at claiming the Big Ten title. The Hawkeyes are currently one game behind Indiana. The Hoosiers have two games remaining; Iowa has three.
“We’ll see the real Iowa as we always do," Matta said. "They’ve got a lot on the line, we’ve got a lot on the line so I’m sure it’s going to be another fantastic battle against them.”
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State had its opportunity for a signature win Tuesday, but an impressive second-half performance by Michigan State quickly ended the Buckeyes' chances. The Spartans connected on 14-of-22 tries from 3-point range and senior sharpshooter Bryn Forbes was 7-for-10 himself.
“I think they run really good offense and set a lot of different screens," Ohio State sophomore forward Keita Bates-Diop said of the Spartans. "Forbes is a really good shooter and they ran him off screens the whole possession and you get hit a couple times. He got hot and he made shots.”
In addition to the loss to Michigan State, the Buckeyes also lost a guy Matta calls "the heart and soul" of their team in Jae'Sean Tate, who is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. It's a tough blow for Ohio State with only two games now remaining in the regular-season.
The Buckeyes have to find a way to replace Tate's 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game in addition to his defensive ability where he's a versatile weapon.
"Some guys got to rebound a little bit better, got to play better defense because Jae’Sean was one that could conceivably guard all five positions on the floor and we were never panicked if he got switched on to somebody," Matta said. "... He was so effective around the basket and driving the basketball. With that said, we’ve got our actions and we put new stuff in for better movement, but we’ve got to look and say, 'Hey, we don’t want you to be Jae’Sean Tate,’ because we don’t have that. With that said, guys are going to have to find other ways to manufacture productivity.”
How It Plays Out
Iowa comes to Columbus in desperate need of a win as the Hawkeyes are fading at an inopportune time. Ohio State, however, also needs a win in the worst way. The Buckeyes still have NCAA tournament dreams — albeit longshot ones at this point — and are coming off that disappointing loss against Michigan State so they'll be just as ready to go in this one.
The Hawkeyes can sometimes have trouble with length and athleticism and that's something Ohio State has. Iowa isn't necessarily the quickest team on the perimeter and it's been pretty clear this season that when the Buckeyes have struggled defensively, perimeter quickness has been a big reason why. The Hawkeyes are a much better matchup for Ohio State than Michigan State was.
The question for the Buckeyes is how they guard Jok and Uthoff. I assume Bates-Diop will be on one of those and will do a pretty good job controlling whomever that is, but how Ohio State defends the other is going to be key.
Iowa is the better team and has had the better season, but something tells me the Buckeyes pull one out today. I'm not sure why I'm leaning this way, but I think Ohio State wins a close one.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 71, Iowa 68
