Ohio State is back on the road Saturday night to face Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are losers of three straight while the Buckeyes are winners are three of their last four. It's a big opportunity for Ohio State to earn a road win — something that's been hard to come by this season.
We were lucky enough to have Ross from Go Iowa Awesome — the finest Hawkeyes site on the internet — to join us to preview the matchup. Check it out:
1. I think most expected Iowa to take a step back this year after all the talent it lost from a year ago despite Peter Jok deciding to return. Is this about what you expected? Better? Worse?
ROSS: I think this is more or less what I expected, give or take a few extra growing pains. Iowa lost so many seniors who were huge contributors that this was always going to be a rebuilding year, especially with so many freshmen stepping in to replace them. And while several of the freshmen have been pleasant surprises (Cordell Pemsl and Jordan Bohannon, in particular, have been a bit better than we expected so far), these weren't Duke or Kentucky-style true freshmen who come in with gobs of talent and can use that to overcome their inexperience. I think we were feeling optimistic after Iowa ran off five straight wins at the end of non-conference play, but in hindsight, most of those wins were over bad teams (and Iowa State and UNI aren't as good as expected this year). The win over Michigan was nice and the win over Purdue two weeks ago was great, but those highs have been counterbalanced with some real lows, especially on the road. This team has had some pretty hellacious home/road splits in Big Ten play, which is maybe not all that unexpected with a team so reliant on freshmen. They struggle when they get out of their comfort zone.
2. Speaking of Jok, his back seemed to bother him a bit during the parts I saw in the Illinois game. What's his status? How much does that change Iowa if he's not 100 percent?
ROSS: There hasn't been any official word from Fran or Jok himself about what his injury is or its severity, but it certainly seems to be impacting his play. He seems a bit slower and his movement is definitely stiffer and less precise. It's been affecting him a lot on defense (it's hard for him to get down in a defensive stance) and it's also been hurting his shot — he's had more shots that were shot or were just a little off the last few weeks than I can remember in the entire season up until now. If he's still limited by this injury on Saturday (which seems like a safe bet, sadly), Iowa's going to be in big trouble. He is the engine for this Iowa offense and if it's sputtering, the whole thing tends to break down. Against Illinois, his struggles probably cost Iowa at least 10-12 points from Jok himself, plus another 10-12 points (at least) in terms of points he could have generated for teammates. If he struggles, Iowa's half court offense tends to bog down and Iowa ends up attempting a lot of bad shots. Long story short: it's going to be ugly on offense for Iowa if Jok can't be at least semi-effective.
3. What's caused this recent slide from the Hawkeyes? Three-straight losses in the Big Ten, is there anything specifically that you can pinpoint the struggles on?
ROSS: I think there are three main reasons for Iowa's recent slide. One, two of the three games have been on the road and, as I noted above, Iowa's home/road splits are pretty extreme. They haven't won a true road game all season and three of their four road losses have been by double digits. They struggle to score on the road and their defense also seems a step or two slower away from home, for whatever reason. Two, Jok's injury has been a killer for this team. He's the unquestioned leader for this team and if he's not able to effective, a lot of things for this team break down (especially on offense). Three, it does feel like some of Iowa's freshmen are hitting the dreaded "freshmen wall" right now. The Big Ten is deep and physical and not only have these kids never experienced competition like this, but they're being asked to play 20-30 minutes and carry a heavy load -- that's tough. I hope they can rally, though, or the back half of the Big Ten schedule is going to be really brutal.
4. Outside of Jok, who is the one player Ohio State needs to contain? Is there somebody else who is capable of hurting the Buckeyes?
ROSS: The one guy who could get hot and make up for some of Jok's offensive woes (particularly from deep) is probably Jordan Bohannon. He's a fearless three-point gunner and if he gets going, he could certainly drop several threes on the Buckeyes. But he's also streaky and lately, he's been in a pretty bad run of form (6/24 during Iowa's three-game losing streak). Iowa also tends to play better when he doesn't shoot a lot of 3s, but he may not have much choice there if Jok isn't able to contribute much offensively. The other player to watch is probably Tyler Cook, the highlight of Iowa's 2016 recruiting class. He's scored in double figures in five of eight Big Ten games so far, including a really solid 16 point (6/10 shooting), six rebound effort against Purdue in Iowa's win two weeks ago. He's also struggled lately, though, scoring just 13 points combined on 3/12 shooting in Iowa's last two losses. But he's certainly capable of doing damage around the rim if Ohio State isn't careful.
5. Iowa's defensive efficiency ratings are...poor. What's been the biggest issue on that end of the floor this season in your opinion?
ROSS: Man, just take your pick — there's a lot of grim stats to choose from when it comes to explaining Iowa's bad defense. But I think a lot probably just comes down to shooting, where Iowa has routinely been smashed in Big Ten play this season. Iowa's letting B1G opponents make 40.8% of their 3s and 52.2% of their 2s, which is good (bad?) for an eFG% of 55.7%. They just can't keep other teams from scoring. The bad 3-point defense is exacerbated by the fact that Iowa is pretty ice cold from 3-point range themselves (31.1%, 13th in the league), which means they aren't able to offset their opponents' made threes very well at all. As for why their defense is so bad... I think a lot of it is just youth. They don't communicate all that well and frequently get pulled out of position, which leads to a lot of open looks for opponents. Their lack of size down low (the 6-9 Cook and 6-8 Pemsl are the biggest guys who get a lot of playing time in the post) means they struggle with rim protection. They also struggle against quicker, slashing guards. So yeah: lots of problems on this end of the court, no easy answers.
Bonus 6. Prediction time...who ya got?
ROSS: The fact that the game is in Iowa City gives me some hope that Iowa can end their three-game skid. They really have played much better at home than on the road, so the friendly confines of CHA should give them a boost. My concern is that may not be enough if Jok remains limited by his bad back. Iowa has gotten off to horrendous starts in their last few games, too, which leads to them playing from behind for most of the game, which doesn't help much. I think McCaffery is going to make some changes to the starting lineup for this game (possibly Nicholas Baer and Ahmad Wagner in for Cordell Pemsl and Isaiah Moss) and I think that will give Iowa a jolt and help them get off to a good start for once. But I expect things to bog down later and Ohio State to put together a run to get back in the game. I see Ohio State pulling away in the second half as the Iowa offense struggles to get much going. Ohio State 73, Iowa 65
