When evaluating Ohio State’s chances of holding on to the fourth No. 1 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament, its remaining schedule can be viewed as both a positive and a negative.
On one hand, every game remaining on the schedule is another potential loss for the Buckeyes. Thursday night’s road trip to Michigan State cannot be taken lightly, as the Spartans’ home win over Illinois on Tuesday proved. Then the Buckeyes finish the regular season with a pair of games against Iowa and Illinois, both currently top-10-ranked teams. And no matter what seed Ohio State ends up with in the Big Ten Tournament, there won’t be any easy games in Indianapolis given the overall strength of the conference.
The flip side of that equation, though, is every game remaining on the schedule is also another opportunity for the Buckeyes to bolster their résumé.
Ohio State’s eight Quadrant 1 wins – a metric utilized by the NCAA Tournament selection committee in evaluating each team’s résumé – are the most of any team in the country, and it’s likely every game the Buckeyes play the rest of the season will be Quadrant 1 games (which include home games against teams in the top 30 of the NET rankings, neutral-site games against top-50 opponents and road games against top-75 teams).
Because of that, the Buckeyes – who held steady at No. 4 in this week’s AP poll and are still projected as a No. 1 seed in most bracket projections even after Sunday’s loss to Michigan – still control their own destiny in earning a spot on the top seed line.
If the Buckeyes can win their remaining three regular-season games and at least make it to the final of the Big Ten Tournament – where they’d likely face Michigan again – that would be enough for them to lock up a 1 seed. Finishing the regular season 2-1 and winning the Big Ten Tournament would work just as well.
Ohio State’s body of work is strong enough that the loss to Michigan had a minimal effect on the Buckeyes’ standing as a top-four team, and it’s strong enough that it can still probably afford one more loss. Whether the Buckeyes have any margin for error beyond that is uncertain.
The top three No. 1 seeds, with less than three weeks to go until Selection Sunday, are clear at this point. Gonzaga (22-0), Baylor (18-0) and Michigan (16-1) have been the most dominant teams in college basketball, and Michigan’s win over Ohio State widened the gap between the third-ranked Wolverines and everyone else. No matter what everyone else does over the next two-and-a-half weeks, those teams will all be No. 1 seeds unless they collapse down the stretch.
Even with its loss to Michigan State on Tuesday, Illinois might still be Ohio State’s top competition for the fourth No. 1 seed. The Illini conclude their regular season by playing Michigan and Ohio State, and if they can win one or both of those games and make it further than Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament, a No. 1 seed is still well within their reach (assuming they win their other remaining regular-season games against Nebraska and Wisconsin).
Iowa, which plays Michigan and Ohio State in its next two games, remains in the No. 1 seed conversation for the same reason. If the Hawkeyes can win both of those games and/or win the Big Ten Tournament, they’d certainly have a case to move up to the top seed line (again, assuming wins in their remaining regular-season games against Nebraska and Wisconsin).
Outside of the Big Ten, other potential contenders for the final No. 1 seed include Villanova, Alabama, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Houston.
Alabama and Villanova are both currently on track to be No. 2 seeds, per Bracket Matrix, but each has only one remaining regular-season game against a ranked opponent, which means less opportunities to bolster their résumés. Either of them can make a run at a No. 1 seed by running the table and winning their respective conference tournament, but they still need some help in the form of the Buckeyes losing.
West Virginia, Oklahoma and Houston are longer shots, as all of them are currently projected as No. 3 seeds (and the Sooners also lost to Kansas State on Tuesday night), but they can’t be completely ruled out. Winning the Big 12 Tournament and beating Baylor along the way would be a big résumé-booster for either the Mountaineers or Sooners, and WVU still has a regular-season game against Baylor, too. Houston would have to run the table from here on out, as there aren’t a lot of opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Cougars are currently ahead of Ohio State in the NET rankings – another metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
| Team | Record | AP Rank | NET Rank | Quadrant 1 Record | Remaining Q1 Games (Regular Season) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | 18-5 | 4 | 7 | 8-4 | 3 |
| ILLINOIS | 16-6 | 5 | 4 | 7-6 | 3 |
| IOWA | 17-6 | 9 | 5 | 5-5 | 3 |
| ALABAMA | 18-5 | 6 | 8 | 6-3 | 1 |
| VILLANOVA | 15-3 | 8 | 10 | 2-2 | 1 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | 16-6 | 10 | 15 | 6-6 | 1 |
| OKLAHOMA | 14-6 | 7 | 28 | 5-5 | 2 |
| HOUSTON | 18-3 | 12 | 6 | 2-1 | 1 |
There’s enough competition for the fourth No. 1 seed that Ohio State likely needs to win at least two of its final three regular-season games and win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good about staying on the top seed line. If the Buckeyes go 2-1 in the regular season and lose in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, would that be enough for them to hold on? That might depend on whether those losses come against Illinois and/or Iowa, as well as who wins the Big East, Big 12 and SEC tournaments.
Right now, though, the Buckeyes only need to worry about winning their own games, because they’re still in the driver’s seat for a No. 1 seed – leaving everyone else behind them in the rankings to hope they hit a couple roadblocks.
