As long as Ohio State does what it’s supposed to do in its final four games of the regular season, the Buckeyes should earn a double bye in the Big Ten men’s basketball tournament – and if it gets some help, it could even earn a share of the regular-season conference title.
Ohio State strengthened its positioning for a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament with its 86-83 road upset win over Illinois on Thursday night. While the Buckeyes still sit fourth in the Big Ten standings behind Illinois, that’s only because the Fighting Illini (12-5 in Big Ten play) have played one more conference game than the Buckeyes (11-5 in Big Ten play). If Ohio State can win its final four games of the regular season, it will move ahead of Illinois and earn at least the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Although it’s much easier said than done, winning out should be a realistic possibility for Ohio State. Playing four games in eight days is never easy – a task the Buckeyes face in their final week of the regular season because the Nebraska game was rescheduled – and Ohio State hasn’t yet won more than three consecutive Big Ten games this season. But on paper, Ohio State should be favored in all four of its remaining regular-season games: a road game at Maryland on Sunday followed by three home games against Nebraska on Tuesday, Michigan State on Thursday and Michigan next Sunday.
Ohio State just needs to win three of those four games to clinch a double bye in Indianapolis, as the Buckeyes have a two-game cushion over Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan, who have all lost seven conference games. Even if the Buckeyes win just two of their final four regular-season games, one of those teams would have to win out to force a tiebreaker with Ohio State (Ohio State would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against Iowa, and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against Michigan State if Michigan State wins Thursday).
The Buckeyes would earn a top-two seed in the Big Ten Tournament if they win out and Purdue loses either of its final two games against Wisconsin on Tuesday or Indiana next Saturday, as the Boilermakers suffered their fifth loss of the season on Saturday against Michigan State.
If Purdue beats Wisconsin, however, Ohio State would be able to clinch a share of the regular-season Big Ten title by winning out. If the Badgers win out and finish with a 16-4 record in conference play, they will be the sole Big Ten champions for the regular season.
For Big Ten Tournament seeding purposes, Purdue holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buckeyes after beating Ohio State in their only regular season matchup, so the Boilermakers would be seeded above the Buckeyes if both finish with the same number of losses. The tiebreaker between Ohio State and Wisconsin, who each won one game against each other during the regular season, would be their records against whoever else finishes with the best record in Big Ten play – likely either Purdue (which would give Wisconsin the tiebreaker) or Illinois (which would give Ohio State the tiebreaker).
Wisconsin and Purdue will both be heavily favored to win their regular-season finales, in which Wisconsin hosts Nebraska and Purdue hosts Indiana, so it’s likely whoever wins Tuesday’s game between the Boilermakers and Badgers will remain ahead of the Buckeyes and be the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The No. 2 seed in Indianapolis, though, appears to be within realistic reach for Ohio State.
| Team | Record | Remaining Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| WISCONSIN | 14-4 | vs. PURDUE, vs. NEBRASKA |
| PURDUE | 13-5 | at WISCONSIN, vs. INDIANA |
| ILLINOIS | 12-5 | at MICHIGAN, vs. PENN STATE, vs. IOWA |
| OHIO STATE | 11-5 | at MARYLAND, vs. NEBRASKA, vs. MICHIGAN STATE, vs. MICHIGAN |
| IOWA | 10-7 | vs. NORTHWESTERN, at MICHIGAN, at ILLINOIS |
| MICHIGAN STATE | 10-7 | at MICHIGAN, at OHIO STATE, vs. MARYLAND |
| MICHIGAN | 9-7 | vs. ILLINOIS, vs. MICHIGAN STATE, vs. IOWA, vs. OHIO STATE |
| RUTGERS | 10-8 | at INDIANA, vs. PENN STATE |
Ohio State shouldn’t be worrying about any of that as it prepares for its final four games of the regular season. Considering that Rutgers, Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan are all currently within a half-game of each other for fifth through eighth in the conference standings, the No. 1 or No. 2 seed might not really provide a substantial advantage over the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. As long as the Buckeyes can secure a top-four seed and the corresponding double bye, they’ll have reason to believe they have a chance to win the Big Ten Tournament.
Knowing they have a chance to at least earn a top-three seed and potentially even earn a share of the regular-season conference title, though, should be all the motivation the Buckeyes need to make sure they don’t overlook any of their next four opponents as they try to put themselves in the best possible position going into the postseason.
Note: This story has been updated to reflect Saturday’s Big Ten results.
