Evaluating How the Résumés of 10 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams Compare with Ohio State Entering Big Ten Tournament

The guaranteed method to go dancing, of course, is to win the Big Ten Tournament outright. Four wins would be required of the Buckeyes to obtain that feat, one they haven't accomplished since 2013 under Thad Matta.

Entering as the 10th seed for the conference tourney, Ohio State would need to beat seventh-seeded Iowa, second-seeded No. 13 Illinois, likely third-seeded Nebraska and then whoever emerges from the other side of the bracket, which contains top-seeded Purdue.

That seems unlikely. But with five wins in its last six games, OSU now has a path to at-large consideration that includes winning multiple contests in its preliminary postseason foray. ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBSSports' Jerry Palm don't have the Buckeyes among their first four or next four teams out at the moment, and only one of the 114 bracket projections aggregated by Bracketmatrix.com has the Scarlet and Gray in the NCAA Tournament as things stand.

But even those sources aren't eliminating Ohio State from the discussion. Lunardi placed the Buckeyes in the "win here, then win again" section in his most recent Bracketology update. Wins in their first two games in Minneapolis would give the Buckeyes one more Q2 and one more Q1 win.

With that in mind, Eleven Warriors is taking a look at 10 teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble and how the Buckeyes' resume could stack up with a few added conference tournament wins.

Each of the following teams still has a shot to bolster their own respective NCAA Tournament résumés in conference tournaments with the exception of Indiana State, who lost to Drake in the finals of the Missouri Valley tourney. Ohio State will likely need to jump a majority of them – but not all of them – to make the Big Dance.

Indiana State

Lunardi: Last Four In, Palm: Out, Matrix: Last Four In

The Sycamores falling to Drake complicated things further for Ohio State’s already convoluted NCAA path, especially considering Indiana State’s massive advantage over Ohio State in NET ranking and overall record. The Buckeyes would have an edge with three extra Q1 wins if they beat Illinois and a much tougher schedule in the Big Ten as opposed to the Missouri Valley Conference. Another win in the semifinals for Ohio State could be needed here, however, given the discrepancies in those aforementioned categories and Q2 record. Nebraska, if that's the team the Buckeyes see in the semis, would be another additional Q1 win.

Virginia

Lunardi: Last Four In, Palm: In as 10 seed, Matrix: Last Four In

This one feels a little more unlikely. Already holding major edges in overall record, road record and Q2 record with no bad losses, Virginia is a higher NET-ranked team with the potential to add another Q1 win on Thursday in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament if Clemson knocks off Boston College. Chalk this up as a possibility if Virginia immediately loses in its conference tourney game and the Buckeyes make the Big Ten finals to hold three more Q1 wins than the Cavaliers.

Colorado

Lunardi: Last Four In, Palm: Last Four In, Matrix: Last Four In

Despite slightly less favorable projections than Virginia, the Buffaloes feel like an even less likely team for the Buckeyes to hurdle. A NET ranking of 27 and 7-4 Q2 record with no bad losses is a lot to overcome. Colorado plays either Utah (Q2) or Arizona State (Q3) in the second round of the Pac-12 Tournament on Thursday.

St. John's

Lunardi: Last Four In, Palm: Last Four In, Matrix: Last Four In

Now we get into the more realistic possibilities for Ohio State. For a firmly planted bubble team, the Red Storm share the same record as the Buckeyes. St. John's NET ranking, strength of schedule and Q2 record give them a leg up, though. A Big Ten Tournament finals run with two more Q1 victories could be required for this jump, but it's not at all implausible if St. John's loses in its first game or two of the Big East Tournament.

Villanova

Lunardi: First Four Out, Palm: Out, Matrix: First Four Out

Villanova is an interesting case. The Wildcats have had the toughest schedule of these bubble teams, but that doesn't account for three Q3 losses despite nine combined Q1 and Q2 wins. Ohio State would come up just two shy of that upper-echelon win total with two wins in the Big Ten tourney but would have a much better record. If Buckeye fans have any Marquette apparel, they should throw it on Thursday night, assuming Nova beats lowly DePaul.

New Mexico

Lunardi: First Four Out, Palm: Last Four In, Matrix: First Four Out

This is a résumé that Ohio State is just a few quality wins short of, with New Mexico's main advantages coming from its NET ranking and record. If the Lobos beat Air Force on Wednesday they'll get a chance at a Quadrant 1 win against Boise State in the second round of the Mountain West Tournament. If their exit comes then or sooner, the Buckeyes' résumé could build to surpass this bunch in the Big Ten gauntlet.

Texas A&M

Lunardi: First Four Out, Palm: First Four Out, Matrix: First Four Out

A bit of running from some Rebels could go a long way to further Ohio State's cause. Four bad losses help negate six extra combined Q1 and Q2 wins for the Aggies over the Buckeyes, but they beat OSU in Columbus this past November. A better record, a jump in NET rankings from successive conference tournament wins and some added quality victories could give Ohio State an argument if Ole Miss can knock off Texas A&M on Thursday.

Iowa

Lunardi: Next Four Out, Palm: First Four Out, Matrix: Next Four Out

The solution here is simple for Ohio State: Win Thursday. The Buckeyes' and Hawkeyes' tournament résumés are comparable, and a head-to-head victory days before the selection committee meets on Sunday should knock one contender for the field of 68 teams out of the running. Both teams will play with plenty of desperation as a result.

Pitt

Lunardi: Next Four Out, Palm: First Four Out, Matrix: Next Four Out

Schedule strength and Q1 victories boost Ohio State's case here, and Pitt won't play until the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament on Thursday, though that could be a Q1 game against Wake Forest. Two Big Ten Tourney wins could put the Buckeyes on a level playing field here for now, but this is another team that OSU really can't afford an unexpected conference tournament run from.

Wake Forest

Lunardi: First Four Out, Palm: Out, Matrix: First Four Out

It's unclear why Wake Forest has such a significantly higher NET ranking than Ohio State with a weaker schedule, the same record and one fewer Q1 win, even if it possesses four extra Q2 victories. This is a very beatable résumé for the Buckeyes as the only one here with a similarly abhorrent road record.

A win from Notre Dame over Wake Forest would be welcome on Wednesday, however, as Wake Forest advancing would guarantee a Q1 win to either the Demon Deacons or Pitt in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.

Conclusion

I'm not sure I like Ohio State's chances for the NCAA Tournament just winning two Big Ten Tournament games, having fully laid out the résumés of their primary competition along the NCAA Tournament bubble. There's just too much help and too many upsets needed otherwise, and that's not even including potential unexpected title runs in major conference tournaments. It's not impossible but it's improbable.

The potential of reaching five Q1 victories by getting through Iowa, toppling Illinois on Friday and then hoping to see and beat Nebraska on Saturday is the separator Ohio State needs against these teams. Only Texas A&M possesses that many top-quadrant wins among the squads listed above and Villanova is the only other team with at least four. One of Ohio State's Q1 victories is over Purdue, a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Without an automatic qualification, that's what the Buckeyes need to make up the deficits they have in overall record, NET ranking, Q2 record, road record and even strength of schedule in a weaker Big Ten season. They need to jump six to eight of these 10 squads and it's a stretch to get there without three more wins in my eyes. Even then it's not guaranteed.

In the immortal words of Al Davis: Just win, baby.