Hope is not lost for an Ohio State trip to the NCAA Tournament in Jake Diebler’s first season.
A three-game slide, including the Buckeyes’ worst loss of the season at home against Northwestern, made the nail-biting denial of a USC second-half comeback on Wednesday feel do-or-die. The Buckeyes held on to win that game 87-82 in Los Angeles, but what they do this week can make or break their Big Dance fate.
It all begins with the final home game of the season and a shot at revenge. Nebraska, which beat Ohio State 79-71 less than a month ago, comes to Value City Arena for a 9 p.m. Tuesday tip on Peacock. The Huskers are eager to improve their own NCAA Tournament standing as both they and the Buckeyes rank among the last handful of teams in the tourney per the 87 projections aggregated in the Bracket Matrix.
Get through that, and then Ohio State can focus on another shot at revenge against another bubble team when it travels to Indiana to close both teams’ regular seasons on Saturday.
"There's no hiding from how important these games are,” Diebler said Monday. “For us, regardless of the opponent, they're all important. But the fact that we play both of them is a great opportunity for us. Our focus right now is on Nebraska and playing our best tomorrow night. And that's it. We've talked a lot about being in the moment and that's what we've done. ... The magnitude of the games are obvious, but we're not doing anything but living in the moment and giving our best one possession, kind of one segment of the game at a time.”
One issue prevalent in Ohio State’s three losses was lulls on the offensive end of the floor. That was especially true when the Buckeyes managed a mere 49 points against Northwestern, but there were cold stretches that cost them against UCLA the following game. Even in the win over USC, Ohio State made only one field goal in the final nine minutes of play – though they added 13 points at the free-throw line in that time.
There have been hot shooting stretches still. Before hitting a wall from the field in the second half, the Buckeyes posted the best single shooting half from a Big Ten team this season when they made 73.1% from the field and 88.9% from 3 in the first half at USC. Those numbers can’t be replicated regularly, but Diebler spots numerous trends when his offense is humming versus when it isn’t after Ohio State followed that first half with a 33.3% shooting performance in the second.
“Part of it is being able to create some advantage opportunities in transition with our defense,” Diebler said. “Some games we've taken advantage of that better than others. To go back and really break it down, sometimes our efficiency has not been as good early in the (shot) clock as other games. And I think the biggest thing we've seen the last couple games is we're reading crowded situations better. We're trusting the pass better. Ball movement's been better. And our pace in the halfcourt, bodies moving, ball moving, attacking lanes has been better.”
But through the ups and the downs of their offense, Ohio State still found a way to prevail in a hostile environment.
“Coming out and winning a game on the road, which we played really well, high-level shot making in the first half, and then for us to combat the run that they went on in the second half to close out the game like we did with tremendous execution, clutch free throws and some big defensive plays down the stretch I thought says a lot about where we are right now from just a mentality standpoint,” Diebler said.
Coming out victorious against Nebraska starts with slowing down star guard Brice Williams. He’s the No. 2 scorer in the Big Ten with 19.7 points per game, trailing only Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli. Williams’ 24-point, 10-rebound outing fueled the Huskers in their previous win over the Buckeyes this season.
Nebraska also outrebounded Ohio State 37-28 in that contest.
“We didn't rebound well enough the first time and that was part of it,” Diebler said. “We’ve got to give Williams different looks so he can't just get into a rhythm, but he's a good player and he's going to make some tough shots. So making sure he doesn't get easy ones.”
There are more threats for the Huskers beyond Williams. Forward Juwan Gary picked up 19 points in Pinnacle Bank Arena against the Scarlet and Gray and averages 13.3 for the season. Guard Connor Essegian shoots 39.2% from 3-point range and can score “in bunches,” Diebler said, averaging 10.5 per contest.
“There's no hiding from how important these games are.”– Jake Diebler on the final week of Ohio State's regular season
But like Ohio State, Nebraska has struggled since the teams met in early February. The Huskers have lost four of their last five games since beating the Buckeyes, with three of those defeats coming at home to Maryland, Michigan and Minnesota. Their lone victory in that stretch came against the Northwestern team that trounced OSU.
“I think some of those games have been a product of getting behind early and digging a hole,” Diebler said. “But they've shown tremendous fight in multiple games to come back. And I think for us, we have to be ready for all the different looks that they're going to present from an offensive standpoint, right? Like we have to be dialed in defensively. We can't give up any easy buckets because every possession is important in a high-caliber game like this.”
Tuesday feels almost like a crossroads for both teams. The winner may well be on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, while the loser is left on the outside with time dwindling in the season. But stakes like these are what expose the real mettle of teams.
“We know we're playing in meaningful games right now and we've earned that,” Diebler said. “We've earned the right to do that. And I think you look at certainly our strength of schedule, some of our metrics, like we've earned this. And it's time to embrace that. It's not time to do anything other than live in the moment and make sure we're doing everything we can. Like today is our focus of having a good practice, good prep, and recovering and getting ready to have a great day tomorrow. And that's it. I think that’s where the focus has to lie.”
