Last May, I predicted who would finish as the top five receivers for Ohio State in 2014. It’s spring again and time to look back at how those turned out, as well as predict who will lead the Buckeyes in 2015.
At the top of the list in 2014 was Michael Thomas with 54 receptions. I got that number exactly right, but it was the player I got wrong. I predicted it would be Devin Smith with 54 catches. Despite having the wrong guy, I was also very close in yardage. I had Smith finishing with 753 yards on those 54 grabs and Thomas ended up with 799 on his 54 receptions. I also gave Smith nine touchdowns, which is exactly what Thomas ended up with.
In short, wrong guy, right numbers. I’m taking half credit for coming up with the right numbers but the wrong name.
2014 Prediction 1: Devin Smith – 54 receptions, 753 yards, nine touchdowns.
2014 Actual: Michael Thomas – 54 receptions, 799 yards, nine touchdowns.
In the No. 2 slot, I again picked the wrong guy. I had the right position. My pick as the second leading receiver was Dontre Wilson, who was inheriting the spot vacated by Philly Brown. Wilson may well have finished second, but he missed five games with an injury. Instead, he finished fifth. The guy who finished second was Jalin Marshall, the other H-back.
In addition to getting the position right, I was two receptions off and nailed the number of touchdowns. Marshall managed to destroy my yardage prediction however. I’m still taking half credit for getting the position and touchdowns correct and being within two catches.
2014 Prediction 2: Dontre Wilson – 40 receptions, 690 yards, six touchdowns.
2014 Actual: Jalin Marshall – 38 receptions, 499 yards, six touchdowns.
I didn’t get the player or the position right with my third pick. I had tight end Jeff Heuerman building on his numbers from 2013. I surmised he’d finish with 38 receptions, 580 yards, and six touchdowns in 2014. Instead, Devin Smith finished in third place with 33 catches, so at least I was within five receptions in this spot. Smith continued his big play ways, amassing a team high 931 yards, nearly doubling my prediction for the third-place guy. In addition, he doubled my touchdown prediction by hauling in 12 scores.
I can’t take any credit whatsoever here. Heuerman finished eighth on the team with only 17 receptions for 207 yards and two touchdowns. Ouch.
2014 Prediction 3: Jeff Heuerman – 38 receptions, 580 yards, six touchdowns.
2014 Actual: Devin Smith – 33 receptions, 931 yards, 12 touchdowns.
My pick for fourth place was Evan Spencer. Nope.
Spencer didn’t finish fourth. His 2013 numbers fell off in 2014, dropping to just 15 catches for 149 yards and three touchdowns. I thought he’d grab 30 passes for 292 yards and three scores. So he had roughly half the catches and yards, but did get the number of touchdowns I predicted. But he finished ninth on the team in catches.
Finishing fourth, surprisingly, was running back Ezekiel Elliott, who caught 28 passes for 220 yards but did not have a receiving touchdown. So, again, I picked the wrong position and player, but Ohio State’s fourth receiver was only two catches off my prediction and not too far off in yardage.
2014 Prediction 4: Evan Spencer – 30 receptions, 292 yards, three touchdowns.
2014 Actual: Ezekiel Elliott – 28 receptions, 220 yards, no touchdowns.
As I mentioned previously, Wilson finished fifth on the team in catches. My pick here was Thomas. I picked Thomas to finish with 27 receptions, 289 yards and four touchdowns. In this spot, Wilson had 21 catches for 300 yards and three touchdowns. So, at least my numbers were close in the No. 5 spot. Thomas destroyed those numbers, though. I’m still taking half a point here for at least getting the numbers in this spot so close.
2014 Prediction 5: Michael Thomas – 27 receptions, 289 yards, four touchdowns.
2014 Actual: Dontre Wilson – 21 receptions, 300 yards, three touchdowns.
So what does 2015 hold in store? It’s time to make with the predictions again.
I believe Thomas will again finish as the Buckeyes’ leading receiver in 2015 and he’ll elevate his game as a junior. I also think Jalin Marshall will finish second among Ohio State’s pass catchers again in 2015 and he too will improve his numbers.
After that, it gets a little trickier.
I’m going to assume that Elliott is a weapon again out of the backfield and hauls in a whole heap of passes to finish third, improving by one spot. I think fourth and fifth will be a battle between Wilson and Corey Smith. Wilson’s versatility will probably help him edge Smith, but honestly I think a lot of guys will be very close to the top five this year, including Nick Vannett, Noah Brown and Curtis Samuel. In addition, guys like Terry McLaurin and Johnnie Dixon may be right there in that group as well.
2015 Predictions
1. Michael Thomas: 59 receptions, 846 yards, 11 touchdowns.
2. Jalin Marshall: 43 receptions, 569 yards, nine touchdowns.
3. Ezekiel Elliott: 38 receptions, 375 yards, three touchdowns.
4. Dontre Wilson: 29 receptions, 342 yards, five touchdowns.
5. Corey Smith: 28 receptions, 499 yards, five touchdowns.
There it is. It’s right there in internet print for all to see. What’s your prediction for Ohio State’s top five in receptions for 2015?
