One year and a few days ago, I predicted who would finish among the top five tacklers for Ohio State in 2014. It’s an inexact science in that it’s almost entirely like guessing, only at least I look at trends and averages to try to formulate the numbers while using development cues—and perhaps a bit of gut reaction—to determine the right players.
Through my first season of predictions, the tendency is to either match guys up in the right order but miss on the numbers, get the numbers right but the wrong players, or get the numbers close for the players, but get them in the wrong order. That is again the case.
Let’s see how my predictions from a year ago turned out and make some hopefully more accurate ones for 2015.
My pick for leading tackler in 2014 was linebacker Joshua Perry and verily that came to pass. Perry finished the 2014 campaign with 124 total tackles and 73 solo stops. That’s nearly double the 64 tackles and 38 solos he had in 2013.
Last April, I called the Galena product as the team’s top stopper, estimating 109 total and 82 solo tackles, saying:
With more of a downhill attack in 2014, Perry’s tackling numbers will soar. Ohio State typically has a linebacker lead the way in tackles, and No. 37 will be the man this year.
My total was a little low and my solo number a bit high, but that’s actually not bad as far as predictions go. I’ve been way more wrong on many occasions, so I’ll take that and run with it.
2014 Prediction 1: Joshua Perry – 109 total tackles (82 solo).
2014 Actual: Joshua Perry – 124 solo tackles (73 solo).
At the No. 2 slot, I had Tyvis Powell finishing with 70 total tackles and 54 solo stops. Although I was pretty close with my prediction—Powell ended up with 76 total stops and 45 solos—he finished fourth on the team. The developing trend is that I’m shorting guys on total tackles and giving them way too much credit for solos. Perhaps the team swarmed more in 2014 under Luke Fickell and Chris Ash than in the previous two seasons under Fickell and Everett Withers. Half a point for being within an acceptable margin of error for the numbers but missed that second spot.
The actual second finisher was safety Vonn Bell, who turned in 92 tackles (57 solos). Bell easily surpassed my expectations, as well as his fellow starting safety in production. With such a leap his sophomore year, expectations will be high on Bell in 2015.
2014 Prediction 2: Tyvis Powell – 70 total tackles (54 solo).
2014 Actual: Vonn Bell – 92 total tackles (57 solo).
In the No. 3 slot I had Curtis Grant, who actually finished fifth, partially owing to the fact that Raekwon McMillan forced his way into the lineup as a true freshman. I figured Grant to be in line for 64 total (39 solo) tackles. His actual numbers were 69 and 38. So close on those numbers but again, two spots off in the finishing order.
The actual third place tackler was Darron Lee, and honestly who saw Lee coming last April, outside of maybe Urban Meyer and Luke Fickell? Lee piled up 81 tackles and 54 solos. I will not overlook you this year, D-Lee.
2014 Prediction 3: Curtis Grant – 64 total tackles (39 solo).
2014 Actual: Darron Lee – 81 total tackles (54 solo).
In fourth, my selection was Bell. I thought he’d get 63 total and 37 solo tackles. Man, did Bell ever overshoot my marks, tallying 29 more total tackles and 20 more solos than I expected, finishing second only to Perry. The Rossville, GA, product could finish his career as one of Ohio State’s truly great safeties if his upward trajectory continues.
I whiffed at No. 4. Completely.
2014 Prediction 4: Vonn Bell – 63 total tackles (37 solo).
2014 Actual: Tyvis Powell – 76 total tackles (45 solo).
I missed again at No. 5. I kind of cheated a little and picked Armani Reeves and Noah Spence to tie for fifth with 59 tackles, with Reeves getting 39 solo stops and Spence 35. Oops.
Reeves totaled only 14 total tackles and nine solo stops in 2014 and was plagued by injuries that forced him out of football. But he still finished light years ahead of Spence, whose personal demons got him kicked out of the program.
The actual No. 5 spot went to Curtis Grant with his aforementioned 69 total and 38 solo tackles. Big miss for me.
2014 Prediction 5: Armani Reeves (39 solo) and Noah Spence (35 solo) – 59 total tackles each.
2014 Actual: Curtis Grant – 69 total tackles (38 solo).
So, out of my top five tacklers, I got four people correct, although three were in the wrong spot and those three finished close to the numbers I predicted. I totally whiffed on Darron Lee and the injury and personal problems of Reeves and Spence didn’t help my soothsaying ways.
So what’s in store for 2015?
I think the top three guys will repeat in the same order. Perry, Bell, Lee and Powell are all getting better and better, and if there’s a swap in the top three positions, it would probably be Lee surpassing Bell, but I wouldn’t bet on it the way Bell has been playing.
I see Perry staying in the ball park of last year’s very impressive numbers, with Bell, Lee and Powell slightly elevating their numbers. I think Powell will slip to the No. 5 spot despite putting up better tackles, but only because I think McMillan in that third starting linebacker spot will move up to fourth. McMillan finished only 14 tackles out of fourth place in 2014 despite seeing limited playing time. He’s going to be a beast and that will start this season.
The way Ohio State plays, the linebackers and safeties are always among the top tacklers, with the defensive line eating up blockers to let the linebackers clean up on running plays and forcing the opposition into passing situations, where the safeties and linebackers are again there to make the plays.
Despite the lion’s share of the tackles going to linebackers and safeties, I look for Joey Bosa, Eli Apple and Adolphus Washington to also finish high on the tackling chart.
2015 Predictions
1. Joshua Perry – 126 total tackles (75 solo).
2. Vonn Bell – 97 total tackles (62 solo).
3. Darron Lee – 90 total tackles (61 solo).
4. Raekwon McMillan – 86 total tackles (56 solo).
5. Tyvis Powell – 77 total tackles (48 solo).
That's what my crystal ball says, anyway. Who do you like for the top five in 2015?
