Preview: No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State

By Eric Seger on November 26, 2016 at 8:35 am
Ohio State-Michigan preview.
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
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Urban Meyer didn't have too much interest in talking about what his team has done to this point in the college football season. There is too much at stake, especially with who is next on the schedule.

“We don't spend much time on that. I know other people do. We're giving all focus to this one,” Meyer said on Monday. “Do we sit and talk about it like we do in here now? Of course not. We've got a lot of work to do.”

Ohio State slipped by Michigan State last Saturday, winning 17-16 after Chris Worley and Malik Hooker teamed up to intercept Tyler O'Connor and deny a 2-point conversion attempt with under 5 minutes to play. The Buckeyes needed another interception from Gareon Conley a few minutes later to seal the deal but when the final whistle blew, all attention turned to the Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan Wolverines
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
10-1, 7-1 B1G
ROSTER / SCHEDULE

NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 26
OHIO STADIUM
COLUMBUS, OHIO

ABC
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“It's officially rivalry week,” Meyer told the assembled media after the Buckeyes held on to beat the Spartans. I'm going to answer a couple questions about this game but our eyes are forward and let's go.”

Michigan is 10-1 and ranked third in the latest set of College Football Playoff rankings, one spot behind 10-1 Ohio State. Jim Harbaugh's team owns statistically one of the best defenses in the country, complete with NFL-caliber cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling in addition to jack of all trades Jabrill Peppers.

The Wolverines will have their hands full with Ohio State's terrific defense as well, needing to navigate it if they wish to punch their ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan win on Saturday, it will represent the East Division in Indianapolis. Ohio State needs a victory against its archrival and a loss by Penn State to come out of the East. Still, the Buckeyes are in excellent position for the College Football Playoff as long as they move to 11-1.

Matchups and execution will determine who leaves Ohio Stadium with their season's highest hopes intact and who is stuck waiting another 365 days for another shot. It is Meyer-Harbaugh II. It is The Game. And for the first time in a decade, the matchup is essential to both team's greatest postseason desires. Thoughts of Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler permeated each program this week.

“I appreciate rivalries probably more than most. That's just the way I've always been. When I was at Notre Dame, the USC-Notre Dame rivalry, Florida-Florida State, BYU-Utah, Bowling Green-Toledo,” Meyer said. “I think that came from Coach Hayes and Bo Schembechler. I just think that was the classiest—both programs had a tremendous respect for each other, both coaches did, and they played so damn hard.”

Michigan Breakdown

Harbaugh is always coy with the media when talking about his team, a fierce competitor who would go put his old Michigan uniform on and line up under center one more time if he could. That is why he hardly gave any indication to the health of his starting quarterback, Wilton Speight, who suffered a collarbone injury in Michigan's lone loss of the season—a 14-13 outcome at Iowa. The Hawkeyes won on a last-second field goal two weeks ago.

Multiple outlets reported Speight broke his collarbone and is out for the remainder of the regular season. Harbaugh refuted that time and again, claiming Speight is "day-to-day," before confirming that the quarterback practiced this week alongside backup John O'Korn. The latter started and played the whole game against Indiana, throwing for just 59 yards in the snow.

Asked on radio this week if it is fair to say it is 50-50 who will start against the Buckeyes, Harbaugh didn't offer up much.

2016 Statistical Comparison
Ohio State Buckeyes   Wolverines
OFFENSE
43.8 5th POINTS FOR 42.3 11th
263.1 8th RUSHING OFFENSE 235.3 19th
230.0 68th PASSING OFFENSE 215.8 82nd
493.1 21st TOTAL OFFENSE 451.1 38th
.515 9th 3rd DOWNS .438 42nd
.893 29th RED ZONE .914 16th
DEFENSE
13.0 3rd POINTS ALLOWED 10.9 1st
120.3 18th RUSH DEFENSE 108.6 10th
159.5 3rd PASS DEFENSE 137.0 1st
88.1 1st PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE 94.2 2nd
279.8 4th TOTAL DEFENSE 245.6 1st
.288 7th 3rd DOWNS .211 1st
.700 8th RED ZONE .684 5th
SPECIAL TEAMS
5.5 96th PUNT RETURN 16.1 1st
24.1 14th KICKOFF RETURN 17.3 121st
42.2 5th NET PUNTING 36.4 83rd
MISCELLANEOUS
+ 1.3 4th TURNOVER MARGIN + 0.7 15th
6.6 78th PENALTIES 4.7 18th
9 EDGE 9

“It’s accurate. They both practiced,” Harbaugh said. “That was Tuesday. Today is a new day. It was a good day for us yesterday. Our ball club had a very good Tuesday practice, and we’ll look to come back today and practice well again.”

The Wolverines relied on their rushing attack with De'Veon Smith, freshman Chris Evans and its defense to beat Indiana. It worked on that day. It may not work on Saturday at Ohio State if Speight is unable to go.

“Obviously, there are individual characteristics that we will have to take a look at from each quarterback but I am sure we will prepare for the system as a whole and be prepared with small wrinkles depending on who is in and who is going to be at QB,” Ohio State linebacker Joe Burger said.

“You’ve just got to go over more situations,” cornerback Gareon Conley added. “At the end of the day, it’s all about fundamentals.”

Execution lacks at times from Michigan's offensive line, and fell by the wayside multiple times in the loss at Iowa City. The big guys up front have a ton of experience between them, with three returning starters joining new center Mason Cole and freshman Ben Bredesen. The latter stepped into the lineup in October after a knee injury to returning starter Grant Newsome. In a matchup where who runs the ball and stops the run best decided the outcome the last four seasons, Michigan's smash mouth, pro-style offense poses a new challenge for the Buckeyes.

“Every team has their scheme and what they’re going to do,” defensive end Tyquan Lewis said. “But at the end of the day, it’s about who’s putting their hand in the dirt and just going. You get to play whatever formation you want to play and we’re going to play whatever defense that we have to play.”

“I actually like playing against pro-style offenses, it’s where people show where their toughness is and you really get to see who everyone is heart-wise,” linebacker Chris Worley added. “It’s not going to be guys trying to run around you, it’s going to be guys trying to run right through your face. It lets you know who the real tough guy is.”

Receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson are two of the Big Ten's best with eight touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards receiving between them, and Harbaugh likes to use Peppers in the backfield near the goal line.

The Wolverines lack in overall offensive talent compared to Ohio State but Harbaugh has done a terrific job the last two seasons of using everything at his disposal to win 20 games while waiting for his recruits to show up. Peppers is the wild card and also makes an impact on special teams, while Darboh leads the team with 758 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 44 receptions.

“Terrific receiver,” Meyer said. “They have three NFL guys that we know very well and he gets better and better. Great player.”

“I think he’s a really good player,” Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett said on Monday of Peppers. “I guess last year I didn’t see him out, and this year he’s playing a different position but I think what we’re going to do is going to be effective but I guess it’s not going to be me personally trying to figure out where he is at all times.”

Harbaugh lined Peppers up at quarterback, running back and receiver last season against the Buckeyes in addition to his normal defensive responsibilities at safety. This year, he plays outside linebacker and roams throughout the formations defensively. Could he line up on Curtis Samuel? Possibly, though Michigan corner Jourdan Lewis tipped his hand earlier in the week that the Samuel assignment could be his.

Barrett hands to Samuel
Samuel needs more than the eight touches he got last week for Ohio State to beat Michigan.

“He's an athlete,” Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown said of Ohio State's star H-back. “You've got to chase athletes with athletes.”

“Everything is coming out of the box this week,” Peppers added.

The Buckeyes whipped the Wolverines 42-13 last season, riding the legs of Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott to the tune of 369 rushing yards. Michigan's depleted front seven couldn't stop the ferocious ground attack and Meyer took an early advantage in the head-to-head matchup between him and Harbaugh. The latter hasn't forgotten about that hapless performance from his defense but didn't say one way or another if he had discussed it with the unit before Saturday.

“When you're playing games at the end of the season, there's a lot of tape to watch and you do watch previous games against the same opponent,” Harbaugh said. “But that's mostly what we're spending our time on is studying and preparing for this ballgame.”

Harbaugh called last week's win against Indiana a playoff game. Saturday's matchup is even more important.

"It's the biggest rivalry in college football, basically all of football,” Michigan defensive end Taco Charlton said. "We all know what's on the line. The Big Ten championship. Hopes of a national championship. We know how dedicated we've been with film sessions, how hard we're going at practice. We know how big this game is.”

How the Wolverines use Peppers and if their offensive line can protect whoever is playing quarterback will determine if they can move the ball with any sort of consistency. Ohio State's defense gave up some chunk plays to L.J. Scott and Michigan State a week ago. Michigan has talent that can cause problems for a defense but not if its quarterback is unable to get the ball to those skill players.

Speight is clearly the better option than O'Korn but there is no doubt Harbaugh will have his team ready. There is too much at stake not to.

“All their skill players are pretty good. It’s just going to be a great challenge going ones against ones,” Conley said. “We’re going to see who ends up with the win.”

“We're going to have to play our best game on special teams. Ohio State is very good in the kicking game and all phases,” Harbaugh said. “It's a real challenge for us.”

Ohio State Breakdown

Meyer was quick to move on from the Michigan State game, knowing he has a team composed of players who for the most part have never played in a game against Ohio State's biggest rival. Especially one of this magnitude, with both teams only having one loss and postseason scenarios hanging in the balance.

“There are always great players. The difference is there's 47 seniors or something, some crazy number of experience,” Meyer said. “These guys have been there for a while. They're grown men that have been playing for a while. So very, very good team, very talented.”

Harbaugh's squad is essentially the same as the one that lost to the Buckeyes so badly a season ago, except at the quarterback position. Seniors are everywhere and anxious for another shot at a younger Ohio State team.

“They're a great team, they're No. 2 in the country," Charlton said. "But (we have) the best defense in the country. So we'll see Saturday who the best team is. They have a good offense, we have a good defense. We'll see which one is better.”

“I think this rivalry is bigger than 2016. We're trying to enhance it and be a big part of it and be a part of history.”– Urban Meyer

But Meyer has a terrific weapon at his disposal in Samuel, who only touched the ball eight times against Michigan State. He scored one of Ohio State's two touchdowns in that game, snagging a 24-yard pass from Barrett to even the score in the first half. Questions about his team's downfield passing game have been a hot button item all season but Meyer feels his group is currently in a good position. Particularly on the offensive line, which has three new starters preparing for to get their first taste of the rivalry.

“I was pretty pleased against a team that was loaded up against the run and every time we did try to throw, it didn't work out very well,” Meyer said. “I don't think we played great but we got the win.”

The group will need to be better against talented defensive linemen like Charlton, Chris Wormley and Chase Winovich, all multi-year starters. Harbaugh's recruiting classes are making a bit of an impact but the biggest fish in that pond is Rashan Gary. The top-rated recruit in 2016, Gary has 23 tackles, five for a loss, a sack and four quarterback hurries this season.

Ohio State must block well enough to establish the run but also needs Barrett to throw the ball better than he did in East Lansing. A whipping wind forced the contest into a ground affair but the pressure is on Barrett to protect the ball and his receivers much get open against two NFL corners in Lewis and Stribling.

“It's going to be man coverage. There's no secret,” Meyer said. “It's what they play, and they're very good players.”

Running back Mike Weber eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark against the Spartans on the same drive he scored the eventual game-winning touchdown, becoming just the third freshman in Ohio State history to reach that plateau. A Detroit native that flipped from Michigan to Ohio State on signing day two years ago, Weber and fellow backfield members Samuel and Barrett are preparing to battle what Meyer called the “best D-line we faced.”

“I think we'll need all three weapons,” Meyer said. “When you face an elite defense like this, you need everything you got.”

How It Plays Out

Peppers
Peppers impacts the game in multiple ways. Via Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports.

Scoring first on Saturday will likely be a precursor to who leaves Ohio Stadium victorious. Both Ohio State and Michigan boast terrific defensive units, with the Buckeyes tied for the conference lead in interceptions with Wisconsin at 17. The Wolverines keep teams out of the end zone better than anybody in the Big Ten.

Weather should not be a factor as it was a week ago for both teams, with temperatures expected to sit in the mid-40s with no precipitation. Exactly like The Game was meant to be played.

Each side has talent. Each side is led by a top college football coach. Each side has tradition. Each side desperately needs this game to keep their postseason hopes breathing. It isn't like the last 10 installments of The Game, where the Buckeyes were typically the team with the better record at the time of kickoff.

“There's much more to it,” Meyer said. “This is a year-round preparation game and it's something that we take very seriously.”

“Our mindset is, we don't care who you've played, who you've lost to, who you've beat,” Peppers said. “You guys haven't played us yet.”

Containing hype, emotion and excitement is key for all involved. With bragging rights and a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line, there is no room for error.

“Our mindset is, we don't care who you've played, who you've lost to, who you've beat. You guys haven't played us yet.”– Jabrill Peppers

“The last one in The Shoe, senior day, senior tackle this week, against the Team Up North, it gets very emotional. It’s going to be very exciting too,” Ohio State center Pat Elflein said. “You couldn’t end it any better way for the regular season and the last one in The Shoe.”

The Buckeyes rode Barrett, Weber and Samuel to 10 wins. Michigan's quarterback conundrum is a storyline that will be followed all the way until game time, with Speight's injury looming large after O'Korn's struggles last week.

But when the ball is kicked, none of that matters. Records are thrown out the window. It is No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. It is the focus of two states, two fanbases and on Saturday, college football.

“We approach it like it’s the Team Up North week. So that already has its own standard or level of expectation,” Barrett said. “As far as us being ranked in the top five, both teams, I don’t think it’s changed. We’re approaching like it’s really big and its Team Up North week, not because of the rankings.”

“At this time of the year it’s all about one thing and that’s just beat the Team Up North,” Worley said. “With the records being as good as they are on both sides it does intensify the game a little bit more.”

The intensity is high with both teams.

“When you commit here, you know what this game's about. You know what this rivalry's about and you should know what to expect,” De'Veon Smith said. “For some freshmen, maybe they don't understand. So we'll bring the tempo and they'll follow behind. This is my last regular season game. My last game against Ohio State. I'm going to leave it all on the (field).”

It all comes down to Saturday at noon.

“I think this rivalry is bigger than 2016,” Meyer said. “We're trying to enhance it and be a big part of it and be a part of history.”


ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20

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