The Game is almost here.
The 113th edition of the greatest rivalry in sport is dripping with meaning as Urban Meyer looks to keep Jim Harbaugh winless as a head coach against the Buckeyes.
The stakes couldn't be higher as an Buckeye win should solidify their place in the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff no matter Penn State does against Michigan State. Meanwhile, a Michigan victory would vault the Wolverines into the B1G championship game for the first time in school history while enhancing their own playoff resume.
Which units will prevail in the trenches? How might J.T. Barrett respond after a tough outing through the air in windy East Lansing last weekend? How will Ohio State's defense attack a Michigan offense that could feature either/or Wilton Speight or John O'Korn under center?
For the skinny on these topics and more, beat writer magnifique Eric Seger, Dubcast legend Johnny Ginter and recruiting/photo boss Andrew Lind take their seats for the last roundtable of the regular season.
So here we are, one sunrise away from the most glorious rivalry in all of sports. You gents are pretty young (Johnny is probably a little more “seasoned”) but have experienced some classic matchups. What sticks out as the most memorable moment in the rivalry so far for you? Why?
Eric: The easy answer here is the 2006 version of The Game, and while that was an incredible matchup and display of football, the 2001 game will always stick out in my brain because of Jim Tressel. The fact he called his shot at the basketball game 310 days earlier and then delivered on a victory in the Big House forever secures him as the ultimate badass.
Ohio State beat an 11th-ranked Michigan team 26-20 in Ann Arbor when it only picked up 11 first downs. The perfect Tressel game and as we know, the first step in his decade of dominance against the Wolverines.
Johnny: Thanks Chris, like many Ohio State fans I age like a fine two liter of Mountain Dew left in your aunt's basement for a couple of years before she remembers she has it and serves it at Thanksgiving.
Being old and busted compared to my baby-faced compatriots, I was actually a student at Ohio State a decade ago for the 1 vs 2 game. The game itself was bonkers and amazing, but the buildup to that game gave it a gravity that I really haven't experienced before or since. I remember feeling incredibly and incredulously sad at Bo dying so close to The Game, for reasons I really still don't get. I wandered around High Street a few nights before and saw the (in retrospect unfortunately named) Dead Schembechlers perform. I went to the Mirror Lake jump. I chilled out in Buckeye Donuts and shot the shit with strangers about the Michigan offense.
Basically, I just enjoyed Michigan Week as much as I possibly could, and by the time the game rolled around I knew that win or lose, this was as good as it could possibly get. After the game I wandered around campus and High Street in kind of a daze, just trying to absorb the insane camaraderie that I'd gained with hundreds of thousands of people simply by wearing an Ohio State hoodie. It was pretty kickass.
Andrew: First off, I must say that I only vividly remember three losses to Michigan in my lifetime — 1997, 2003 and 2011 — so I haven't watched too many games that left a bad taste in my mouth. But I'd say the most memorable moment, for me, happened in a game the Buckeyes had no reason to win.
Only two years removed from a national title, Ohio State struggled to a 6-4 record in 2004, but somehow led seventh-ranked Michigan 20-14 in the third quarter. Freshman Ted Ginn fielded a punt, made a few defenders miss, cut left and raced down the sidelines — past a diving punter — for an 81-yard score.
Michigan still went on to win the Big Ten — it's last conference title — and play in the Rose Bowl, but seemingly turned the tide in the rivalry. It was the first of seven-consecutive wins by the Buckeyes, who have won 11 of the last 12 overall.
Jim Harbaugh is the so-called newest villain from That Team Up North but there have been numerous Wolverines happy to play that role over the years. Which Michigan Man from over the years stokes your fire the most and why?
Andrew: It's certainly Harbaugh.
His recruiting tactics and how he deals with the media may rub me the wrong way, but I think he's also everything the rivalry needs. He gives the Wolverines the best shot they've had in years to get back to and remain in the national spotlight, and as much as I think I'd rather see Michigan struggle year after year, The Game is so much better when both teams are at their best.
Eric: This one is easy: Mike Hart. He, Jake Long and Chad Henne all came back to Michigan as seniors to get another shot at taking down Ohio State. They failed and finished 0-4 against the Buckeyes in their playing careers. Hart's trash talk before during and after the game showed passion but also a complete disregard for what happened. He was a terrific running back but I never hated to see him lose.
Johnny: Tim Biakabutuka is literally the devil and the embodiment of the cumulative anger and fury that I had to internalize as an Ohio State fan growing up in the 90s. It's one thing to lose a game that you had no right to win, or to lose a close game in which both sides played hard and one just came up a little short. It's an entirely different thing altogether to lose because the universe is actively conspiring against you.
Tim Biakabutuka is the agent of a cruel and uncaring universe. I was 10 in 1995, and it was at that young age that I learned that nothing ever really works out the way it's supposed to. Thanks, dick.
In a matchup featuring the B1G’s two best total offenses and defenses in the league, it’s a good bet the game will be won by the team that controls the lines of scrimmage. Let’s first talk about Ohio State’s offensive line versus Michigan’s defensive front. Which unit do you favor in that battle and why?
Johnny: I have no idea. One of the more predictably disappointing things about this season is that the offensive line has been predictably inconsistent. That'll happen when you've got so much youth up and down and behind the line, but what was particularly annoying was Elflein having a ton of brain farts against Michigan State. He's still really, really good, but if anyone has to be a rock, it's him.
There are still some right points. Jamarco Jones has been terrific in run blocking, which is especially important for this weekend. Mike Weber might end up making more of an impact than people might think (because there's no way in hall that Don Brown and company aren't doing everything in their power to take away Curtis Samuel and the approximately 98.7233333% of the explosive plays that he accounts for.
Andrew: I don't feel either group has an edge over the other, but Ohio State's offensive line has played much better since the loss to Penn State last month. Establishing the run game early will be of the utmost importance, and it will be a long afternoon if the Buckeyes are unable to do so.
Eric: Michigan by a nose. I chose the Wolverines due to experience, with defensive linemen Taco Charlton, Chase Winovich, Chris Wormley, Maurice Hurst and Ryan Glasgow all being juniors and seniors. The fact Ohio State starts a true freshman up front (Michael Jordan), in addition to two other new starters at tackle (Jamarco Jones and Isaiah Prince) is a cause for concern. Those guys understand the weight of the rivalry but have not played considerable snaps in it before. I have faith in Pat Elflein and Billy Price to hold down the fort and get those guys in a position to be successful. But Michigan leads the Big Ten in sacks for a reason. Advantage Wolverines.
Switching it up, how should we expect Ohio State’s defensive front to fare against Michigan’s offensive line?
Eric: I like the Buckeyes here and am going to contradict my point about experience that I made above when the roles were reversed. Though Michigan's offensive line has a bunch of returning starters from last season's squad, I can't bring myself to give an edge to a unit that has Kyle Kalis on it. Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington and the rest of Ohio State's defensive line roasted Kalis and Co. last season in Ann Arbor. Who is to say essentially the same group is going to have things figured out a year later against an even deeper Buckeye defensive line when the game is in Columbus?
Johnny: I think they'll do really well. As of this writing you can probably coin-flip on who the starting quarterback is going to be for Michigan on Saturday, but either way, you can bet that the defense will be throwing as many different coverage looks and blitz packages as is possible. Tyquan Lewis is quietly having another excellent season, and expect his name to come up quite a bit during the course of the game.
How the defensive line plays against the rushing game is a big part of this, however. If the defensive line and linebackers can make Michigan one-dimensional, you might as well put the last nail in their coffins.
Andrew: It's more of the same on the flip side. If the Buckeyes can get a consistent pass rush, whichever quarterback is under center for the Wolverines will have a tough time moving the ball downfield. When the ball gets into the red zone, I will, however, give the edge to Ohio State, as the defense has shown time and time again its ability to bend but not break.
J.T. Barrett stunk it up in windy conditions last weekend but the weather and home field should be more kind to him this week but there’s still the issue of Ohio State’s decidedly meh wide receivers and the fact Michigan boasts the league’s best pass defense giving up just 137 yards per game. How effective can OSU be in the passing game? How important is it to get some production from true wide receivers instead of just H-back Curtis Samuel and maybe tight end Marcus Baugh?
Andrew: I think the weather has become more of a convenient excuse for Ohio State's offensive struggles than it is the exact reason. Sure, gusts of wind and a wet ball can make it more difficult to throw effectively, but at some point, you have to realize the issue rests elsewhere.
I've harped on the wide receivers' separation issues in the past, but we're 12 weeks in. The coaching staff knows what it is going to get production-wise week-in and week-out, yet doesn't attempt to find new ways to get the wideouts open. Maybe this weekend will be different, but I honestly don't expect it.
Eric: It is essential. I think this game will be won by the team that runs the ball the best (it always is) but Barrett has to connect on some passes to keep Michigan's defense honest. Noah Brown was a ghost in East Lansing. Can he create space against Jourdan Lewis and Jeremy Clark? Can Barrett get the ball to him on time when he does find space? Michigan's secondary is excellent and the way the Wolverines use Jabrill Peppers will be another thing for the Buckeyes and Barrett to think about.
Samuel will give Ohio State an advantage and Baugh can make some plays in the short game but Brown, Terry McLaurin, James Clark, Parris Campbell and others have to get open and hold onto the ball when it comes their way. This is called "making a play" and it hasn't happened much from Ohio State pass catchers this season not named Samuel, Brown or Baugh.
Johnny: Like the world's most disappointed dad, at this point in the season I'm pretty much done looking for consistency or excellence from the receiving corps. It's like admitting that after 12 years of ballet and another six of tap little Susie couldn't dance her way out of a paper bag, shouldn't try, and in fact should be kept away from paper bags at all times for her own safety.
The wideout situation isn't that dire, but Samuel and Baugh are going to have to shoulder the bulk of the receiving responsibility, because at this point in the season the wideouts are who they are. Against an excellent Michigan defensive secondary, it'd probably be a little much to expect them to blow up like they did against Oklahoma. It's possible, but I just don't see it.
Whether it’s John O’Korn or Wilton Speight under center for Michigan, the Wolverine passing attack does feature some solid pass catchers in guys like Jake Butt, Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson while Ohio State’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the league giving up 159 yards per outing. Can the Buckeye coverage guys shut down Michigan’s aerial attack and make them one dimensional and/or should we expect the OSU staff to stack the box and dare the Wolverines to throw?
Johnny: Michigan's running game has been incredibly schizophrenic lately. Last week they ran up 225 yards on the ground against a semi-competent Indiana rushing defense, but the week before that, Iowa (which is statistically almost exactly the same as Indiana) held Michigan to just 98 yards rushing in a win against the Wolverines.
In general, Ohio State mostly needs to worry about the possibility of the short and intermediate passing game setting up the run, because while Darboh and Chesson are good players, Butt can wreak havoc on an unprepared linebacking corps. If I'm Luke Fickell and Greg Schiano, I use the safeties as a safeguard against Butt and hope that my corners can get the job done riding solo. Luckily this has been the M.O. for Ohio State for most of the season, so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
All of this becomes moot if the defensive line can get to either O'Korn or Speight. Do that, and this game looks a lot more like the Iowa game for Michigan.
Andrew: The defensive backfield is certainly full of confidence; I mean, they've dubbed themselves the best secondary in America. So I don't think the staff will do anything differently in terms of coverage this weekend.
Eric: I am not impressed with Michigan's rushing offense even though it averages more than 230 yards per game. Guess I just have faith Ohio State's front seven can handle De'Veon Smith, Chris Evans and the other ball carriers Jim Harbaugh will use. But because it should be O'Korn playing and not Speight, the Buckeyes very well could stack the box and dare the Houston transfer to beat them through the air. Ohio State has three NFL-caliber defensive backs on its side. Let those guys earn some money, as they have all season by sitting on an island in man coverage and making plays on the ball. Butt, Darboh and Chesson are all solid players. The tight end and Columbus native is a matchup problem for most any defense but he can be nullified if O'Korn is unable to get it to him.
Field position and big plays could also be x-factors in a game featuring what feels like pretty evenly matched teams. Strangely, Michigan is last in the B1G in kickoff returns (17.3 avg) but first in punt returns (16.0) while Ohio State is second in kickoff returns (24.1 avg) but next to last in punt returns (5.5). Both teams put stars on punt return in Samuel and Jabrill Peppers. Any chance special teams are a huge factor in The Game? How comfortable are you with Samuel back there for Ohio State?
Eric: Samuel is the best option for Ohio State at punt returner because of his shiftiness and decision-making catching the ball. I think it is dangerous to put your best player at risk catching punts, but it is a pretty easy way to get him touches. But as Urban Meyer showed through the first 11 games, he doesn't want to count on his punt return team to win him a game.
If I'm Ohio State, I worry about Peppers more than anything. He is brilliant with the ball in his hands and in the open field, a fine athlete who can make a couple guys miss and sprint to daylight. If Ohio State's punt team fails to corral him then yes, special teams will become a huge factor in The Game. But that is the only way it does, in my opinion, at least in terms of scoring. Cameron Johnston and Quinn Nordin are excellent punters and flip field position often, so that will be a factor. But in terms of 'wow' plays or returns for touchdowns, Peppers looks like the main source of electricity in that area.
Johnny: Michigan's special teams are incredible despite that kickoff return stat. Peppers might be a tad overrated on defense, but he's no joke as a returner and the Buckeyes will have to account for him every single time he touches the ball, including his use in packages on offense. Their place kicking good; Kenny Allen hasn't missed a field goal since the first day of October and could be a factor in a close game.
As for Ohio State... hope that no one screws up too badly? I'm comfortable with anyone who doesn't immediately drop the ball when it's kicked to them. Advancing the ball beyond that point for any amount of distance would be gravy. I'd even be fine with going backwards a yard or two.
Andrew: I feel a lot better about Samuel being back there than I do about Dontre Wilson, that's for sure. He is just as likely to break a return for a touchdown as Wilson, and he's less likely to fumble. That's a positive.
Michigan, meanwhile, will need score on defense or special teams to win this game. And if Peppers is truly deserving of a invitation to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, he has to make his impact felt against the Buckeyes.
It seems like the only group of men capable of slowing down Curtis Samuel isn’t an opposing defense but instead the offensive coaching staff. Do you expect Samuel will be fully deployed this Saturday or is it safe to assume we’re headed toward another situation where empty backfield quarterback runs rule the day? Or maybe you think Meyer and company have been holding some Samuel-specific stuff back just for this week?
Andrew: I think the staff lacks trust in the receivers to get open, which is why the game plan continues to be a steady dose of quarterback runs and passes into the flat to Samuel. It'll work against less talented teams, but Michigan will surely stack the box and try to take away Ohio State's best offensive weapon.
That means the staff is going to have to get creative and get others involved, otherwise, it'll just be more of the same lackluster offense we saw last weekend at Michigan State. It goes without saying Samuel should get as many touches as possible on Saturday, but it's more important — in my opinion — for those touches to be within the flow of the offense instead of being forced.
Eric: I could see Meyer, Tim Beck and Ed Warinner holding some things back for Michigan but am thinking about the direct snap to Samuel against Maryland where he handed to Barrett and it resulted in an end around. That is already on tape, and why did they feel a need to do that against a terrible team? Who knows.
Samuel needs to have more than 15 touches against Michigan. He is Ohio State's biggest threat to take one to the house every time he touches the ball. In a game with high College Football Playoff and Big Ten implications, both sides need to use everything in their arsenal in an attempt to win. I think Meyer knows that.
Johnny: I love the thinking that Ohio State coaches "hold something back" for Michigan, because it's proof that hope indeed springs eternal and also that we're all kind of big gullible dummies when it comes to anything surrounding this game.
Yes, sometimes this actually happens: a tight end might catch two passes instead of zero, or you see one reverse play that hadn't been done all season. But in general, Urban just wants to win the damn game, and a complete overhaul of his offense during the last week of the season seems fairly unlikely. It is a fact that Curtis Samuel needs to be more involved in the offense than he's been, and Meyer and company would be foolish not to do everything in their power to get him the ball as many times as possible. If that means the dude gets 35 touches on Saturday, I'm completely happy with that.
Ohio State enters the contest as a 6.5-point favorite thanks largely to home field advantage. How does this one play out? Give us your final score prediction and game MVP.
Johnny: It's going to be close. Michigan, top to bottom, is still probably not as talented as Ohio State, but they're also a little more experienced and are more desperate for a win. A lot of this hinges on who their starting quarterback is, but whether it's O'Korn or Speight, they'll have to try and establish the passing game early. If they don't, the Buckeyes will quickly catch up with them schematically. Given that Ohio State has 17 interceptions on the year with six returned for a touchdown, I feel pretty confident about the power of the secondary to make an impact on this game.
The real question mark is how an inconsistent Ohio State offense will play against one of the best defenses in the country. If the offensive line can keep Barrett upright (a relatively big "if," as Michigan is tied for 5th nationally in sacks), then Urban will have time to get creative offensively. If not, expect the rushing game to attempt to shoulder a lot of the load, which could be difficult against a unit only allowing 108 yards per game. Samuel will have to be able to help stretch the field, because if they can't Michigan is going to tee off on about a trillion blitzes and make Barrett's life a living hell.
I personally think this one goes down to the wire, but the home field advantage, a great kicker in Tyler Durbin, and hopefully an offensive gameplan as coherent and clever as what they brought to Michigan a year ago will add up to a 23-20 Ohio State win, with J.T. Barrett being the best player on the field.
Andrew: The team that wins the field position battle and minimizes mistakes — avoiding them on special teams will be crucial — will win this game. And though it feels like a push at so many positions, Ohio State undoubtedly has the upper hand at the position that matters the most: quarterback.
Barrett's leadership and calm under pressure will guide the Buckeyes down the field late for a game-winning field goal to give the Buckeyes a 27-24 win. In doing so, he'll join Tippy Dye, Troy Smith and, technically, Terrelle Pryor as the only quarterbacks in Ohio State history to beat Michigan three times.
Eric: The line started around 7 which surprised me. I guess Vegas doesn't have very much faith in John O'Korn after seeing him play against Indiana. I don't either but expect the game to be close down to the final whistle. Ohio State 28, Michigan 24. Game MVP: Curtis Samuel.
